FINAL CALL SEASONAL SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR THE MAJOR CITIES

[RNS]

This evening our final 2003/04 winter outlook has been completed (finally I get a break...lol), and a version of that will be posted here at some point this coming week. The complete article is much too long to be posted here, so it will take some time for me to customize something Tailored to this type of format.

I Promised everyone late last week that I would post our organization’s seasonal snowfall expectations for the coming winter in the major cities tonight.

Although i know that some of you will not be pleased (others may be very happy...it all depends on where you are and what you like) with these expectations, it is in our opinion, the most likely scenario.

BOSTON -----> 55-60"
NEW YORK -----> 30-35"
PHILADELPHIA -----> 25-30"
BALTIMORE -----> 20-25"

in general, the further north one goes, the better the chance of seeing above normal snowfall, the further south you live, the closer to normal or below normal totals.

[Guest]

This evening our final 2003/04 winter outlook has been completed (finally I get a break...lol), and a version of that will be posted here at some point this coming week. The complete article is much too long to be posted here, so it will take some time for me to customize something Tailored to this type of format.

I Promised everyone late last week that I would post our organization’s seasonal snowfall expectations for the coming winter in the major cities tonight.

Although i know that some of you will not be pleased (others may be very happy...it all depends on where you are and what you like) with these expectations, it is in our opinion, the most likely scenario.

BOSTON -----> 55-60"
NEW YORK -----> 30-35"
PHILADELPHIA -----> 25-30"
BALTIMORE -----> 20-25"

in general, the further north one goes, the better the chance of seeing above normal snowfall, the further south you live, the closer to normal or below normal totals.

I pretty much agree with those totals and your thinking about higher farther north....................What is your thoughts for the Apps (West side of apps "Ohio" example) and as well west of the Cities on the eastside of the apps???

[RNS]

IMO...this is where it becomes fun. were thinking that there should be a fairly substantial increase in seasonal totals the further inland one goes from the major cities, consistent with more frequent inland runners. so maybe something on the order of 110-130% of normal. This should be an interior mid-atlantic and northeast winter.

[Guest]

Yep.............That i very much agree with........I assume you had a look at my outlook which pretty much agrees with yours..........I as well have a City by City snowfall prediction thread [url].http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=16660[/url] slightly higher then yours for i95 corridor............I think most should be happy especially from the Rockies east and along the immediate westcoast...........Only ones who could be disapointed is those expecting another winter like last especially in the i95 corridor.................

[RNS]

yes...i did have a look at your winter outlook...and my compliments on a good job. the main reason why we held the totals in the big cities down was due to the fact that one of the three primary analogs suggested an abundance of inland runners, the second was just a brutally cold winter, (favored many suppressed systems) and the third was the one which did argue for a winter similar to last. though in putting everything together, the averages just didint add up to an awesome winter in the I-95 corridor.

areas just inland from the major cities its as i said....another story.

since i will not be releasing our analogs publicly, they will not be posted.

[Anonymous]

RNS and King:

Are you suggesting that West of I-95 should see a healthy winter with above normal snowfall?

Especially places like the Northern Shenendoah Valley of Virginia and Eastern Panhandle of WV?

[JCT777]

RNS - those snowfall numbers look good, and I agree with your reasoning. Now let's hope it verifies!

[Anonymous]

yes...i did have a look at your winter outlook...and my compliments on a good job. the main reason why we held the totals in the big cities down was due to the fact that one of the three primary analogs suggested an abundance of inland runners, the second was just a brutally cold winter, (favored many suppressed systems) and the third was the one which did argue for a winter similar to last. though in putting everything together, the averages just didint add up to an awesome winter in the I-95 corridor.

areas just inland from the major cities its as i said....another story.

since i will not be releasing our analogs publicly, they will not be posted.

Im going to try to guess your analogs

1) 1992-1993 runner up: 1993-1994
2) 1976-1977 runner up: 1958-1959
3) 1960-1961 runner up: 1985-1986


lOL how far off am i?

[WEATHER53]

This is quite different than some of your earlier winter outlooks which were for cold and snowy for mid atlantic and north with onset of such cold pattern beginning 11/20 and a lot of coastal storminess. I would be interested in what changes you have observed that have led to this revised outlook. Thanks

[Anonymous]

Your prediction of 20-25 inches of snow in Baltimore is above their 50 year average of 16.20 inches per winter.

If your in-land runner theory is correct, then a 50-75 mile difference to the West could mean substantial more snow than the big cities of DC/Baltimore/Philly are forecasted to have. The snow/ice/rain line may be on those cities, but as you head West a little bit the snow could be piling up.

For example, last winter in the big storm in February, DC got about a foot of snow, the suburbs got 18, but just 70 miles West of DC...30 inches crushed us.

The rain/snow line is always tricky to pinpoint.

[RNS]

This is quite different than some of your earlier winter outlooks which were for cold and snowy for mid atlantic and north with onset of such cold pattern beginning 11/20 and a lot of coastal storminess. I would be interested in what changes you have observed that have led to this revised outlook. Thanks

our stronger analogs suggested more in the way of a dominating cold pattern in the means...which would support supressed systems, as compared to coastal events.

[RNS]

Your prediction of 20-25 inches of snow in Baltimore is above their 50 year average of 16.20 inches per winter.

If your in-land runner theory is correct, then a 50-75 mile difference to the West could mean substantial more snow than the big cities of DC/Baltimore/Philly are forecasted to have. The snow/ice/rain line may be on those cities, but as you head West a little bit the snow could be piling up.

For example, last winter in the big storm in February, DC got about a foot of snow, the suburbs got 18, but just 70 miles West of DC...30 inches crushed us.

The rain/snow line is always tricky to pinpoint

i expect a close range in storm tracks this year, with supressed events favored slightly above coastal events and coastal events slightly favored over inland runners. the question becomes cold air during what coastal events we see, inland runners will depend on the degree of CAD, as to determine how well the big cities hold onto frozen precip.

[RNS]

IOW...when it comes to coastals and inland runners, the apps. and areas inland from the big cities will see the snow. what could prove to be a major coastal event (much like xmas02) this year could very well produce mainly rain int he major cities, while areas inland (asy 20 to 30 miles N/W) see a major snowfall.

[WEATHER53]

This is quite different than some of your earlier winter outlooks which were for cold and snowy for mid atlantic and north with onset of such cold pattern beginning 11/20 and a lot of coastal storminess. I would be interested in what changes you have observed that have led to this revised outlook. Thanks

our stronger analogs suggested more in the way of a dominating cold pattern in the means...which would support supressed systems, as compared to coastal events.

The supressed system concept is very much in agreement with our winter forecast issued on WWBB in late Sept. We also stated then that for December and possibly January but certainly for December we saw most storms over or west of applchns thus rain for DC metro and then when the cold did come it would be such strong high pressure as to be surpessive, ala 1979-80. I wonder do you see this as segemented ala month or so period dominated by west of applchns and then month or so of mostly supressive or do you see a lot of oscillation of the two patterrns within the monthly period. Also, we think the coastal moves will be a distinct thrid choice frequency.

[RNS]

actually 53, we do not agree with the 1979/80 analog at all for various reasons, the years that did show up however featured intense to dare i say brutal cold, centered in january, (though prevalent in the means all four months) which would favor a supressed storm track in the means, thus...why we went for supressed systems.

we also believe that the winter will be characterized by violent oscillating in the position of the trough across north america. this can mean that one storm one week may track up west of the mountains, while the next storm the next week is a monster coastal system and then lets say the pattern supresses once again, ok...we shift the track well to the south, then the cycle repeats its self. we do not expect however to see prolonged periods of time where the trough leaves the east for more than a week on end.
overall i must say that we have spent a great deal of time in trying to nail the predominant storm tracks this winter, and in our opinion there are about equal chances for each track (supressed, inland runner, up the lakes, SECS track...whatever) to doominate. we may see an equal number of all once things are all said and done. though b/c of the tendency for cold, we decided to favor supressed systems over inland runners and coastal events.

[RNS]

just as we do not buy 1960/61 or 1958/59

[Guest]

This is quite different than some of your earlier winter outlooks which were for cold and snowy for mid atlantic and north with onset of such cold pattern beginning 11/20 and a lot of coastal storminess. I would be interested in what changes you have observed that have led to this revised outlook. Thanks

our stronger analogs suggested more in the way of a dominating cold pattern in the means...which would support supressed systems, as compared to coastal events.

The supressed system concept is very much in agreement with our winter forecast issued on WWBB in late Sept. We also stated then that for December and possibly January but certainly for December we saw most storms over or west of applchns thus rain for DC metro and then when the cold did come it would be such strong high pressure as to be surpessive, ala 1979-80. I wonder do you see this as segemented ala month or so period dominated by west of applchns and then month or so of mostly supressive or do you see a lot of oscillation of the two patterrns within the monthly period. Also, we think the coastal moves will be a distinct thrid choice frequency.

Well if i was to put them in order i would go with Inland Runners first then the suppressed and then the Coastal for number 3 choice per the analogs i used..................79-80 was factored in but isnt my strong analog...........I for one still expect the pattern to change around Thanksgiving and as well expect the cold to be sticking around for a bit in Early to Mid December for the eastern US...............Big question is whether we will see a Coastal storm or perhaps a inland runner during the time that the cold will be here??????

[donsutherland1]

RNS,

Thanks for sharing your thoughts. I certainly agree that the further north one goes, the better chance one has at seeing above normal snowfall.

I'll look forward to reading the version of your discussion that you post here.

Good luck.