POLL: Date of 1st Named Atlantic Tropical Storm
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POLL: Date of 1st Named Atlantic Tropical Storm
Well here we are with the 1st Atlantic TWO for 2023, and with it the inaugural Poll to guess when the 1st Named Tropical Storm will occur (Cycloneye, perhaps you could properly format this poll with a deadline of 5/ 31?)
2023 1st Named Tropical Storm Poll:
2023 1st Named Tropical Storm Poll:
Last edited by chaser1 on Sun May 21, 2023 10:36 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: POLL: Date of 1st Named Atlantic Tropical Storm
I'll throw down, for June 15 - June 30
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- cycloneye
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Re: POLL: Date of 1st Named Atlantic Tropical Storm
chaser1 wrote:Well here we are with the 1st Atlantic TWO for 2023, and with it the inaugural Poll to guess when the 1st Named Tropical Storm will occur (Cycloneye, perhaps you could properly format this poll with a deadline of 5/ 31?)
2023 1st Named Tropical Storm Poll:
Done. It closes on May 31 at 12:27 PM EDT.
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- Emmett_Brown
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Re: POLL: Date of 1st Named Atlantic Tropical Storm
I also picked June 15 - June 30. I'm thinking this will be a typical El Nino year, with some activity early and late, and a quiet peak season due to shear and subsidence. There could be a rogue major near the peak, but overall below normal activity. It only takes one though.
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- Old-TimeCane
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Re: POLL: Date of 1st Named Atlantic Tropical Storm
You left out "January"
But yeah, technically it isn't named.
But yeah, technically it isn't named.
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Re: POLL: Date of 1st Named Atlantic Tropical Storm
I'd flip a coin and guess it will form out of a piece of energy from the western Atlantic system currently northeast of the Bahamas within the next 5-7 days.
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Re: POLL: Date of 1st Named Atlantic Tropical Storm
I'm going way long, Sept 1st
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- wxman57
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Re: POLL: Date of 1st Named Atlantic Tropical Storm
I think there's a good chance the NHC will name Arlene offshore of the Carolinas on Saturday. No wind threat, just rainfall associated.
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Re: POLL: Date of 1st Named Atlantic Tropical Storm
I do agree with wxman57; the models seem to be somewhat keen on something forming along the SE US Coast by the Memorial Day timeframe. Kind of like an Arthur 2020 system, I suppose. After the weirdo anomaly that 2022 was, perhaps we'll be back with pre-season storms this year
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Re: POLL: Date of 1st Named Atlantic Tropical Storm
I'm beginning to have "buyer's remorse" regarding my guess of first named Tropical Storm occurring toward the end of June. At this juncture I'm starting to think that near term development in early Atlantic typical Climo regions where early activity is usually anticipated may be thwarted as a result of increasing upper-level westerlies in the Western Atlantic basin, along with broadly dry mixing as suggested by the GFS mid to long term 300mb - 700 mb Relativity forecast for the GOM & W. Caribbean. Thereafter, warm SST's may eventually aid the development of a few T.D.s in the far east MDR or the sub-tropics but I'm starting to think that vertical wind shear might inhibit breaking that T.D. glass ceiling until well into July (or early August?)
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- cycloneye
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Re: POLL: Date of 1st Named Atlantic Tropical Storm
The 15 that voted June 1-15 are looking at TD 2 poorly organized saying "oh no".
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Re: POLL: Date of 1st Named Atlantic Tropical Storm
cycloneye wrote:The 15 that voted June 1-15 are looking at TD 2 poorly organized saying "oh no".
We have two weeks left.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
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Re: POLL: Date of 1st Named Atlantic Tropical Storm
Still #winning
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Re: POLL: Date of 1st Named Atlantic Tropical Storm
June 1-15 wins!
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- AnnularCane
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Re: POLL: Date of 1st Named Atlantic Tropical Storm
I lost (voted June 15-30)...but I don't care.
HELLO ARLENE!!!!!!!!!!!!
HELLO ARLENE!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Re: POLL: Date of 1st Named Atlantic Tropical Storm
Lost
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Re: POLL: Date of 1st Named Atlantic Tropical Storm
tolakram wrote:Lost
Not surprising.
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"But it never rained rain. It never snowed snow. And it never blew just wind. It rained things like soup and juice. It snowed mashed potatoes and green peas. And sometimes the wind blew in storms of hamburgers." -- Judi Barrett, Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs
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Re: POLL: Date of 1st Named Atlantic Tropical Storm
Well, it turned out victorious for those 15.
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Re: POLL: Date of 1st Named Atlantic Tropical Storm
The NHC decided to go with 7 day tropical forecast from 5. 3 days ago they said no tropical development is expected in the next 7 days. Oops
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Re: POLL: Date of 1st Named Atlantic Tropical Storm
HURRICANELONNY wrote:The NHC decided to go with 7 day tropical forecast from 5. 3 days ago they said no tropical development is expected in the next 7 days. Oops
Quick spinups of non-tropical origin such as Arlene are often difficult to forecast in advance. Model support on the globals was next to nonexistent; this was another rare instance where the mesoscale models proved reliable in successfully indicating TCG.
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