Texas Spring 2023

[ElectricStorm]

Another chance for DFW on Friday, Day 2 upgraded to enhanced for hail

[HockeyTx82]

Another chance for DFW on Friday, Day 2 upgraded to enhanced for hail
https://i.imgur.com/ak9xfeS.gif

Well that escalated quickly..... what happened to cause that shift?

[bubba hotep]

Another chance for DFW on Friday, Day 2 upgraded to enhanced for hail
https://i.imgur.com/ak9xfeS.gif

Well that escalated quickly..... what happened to cause that shift?

Hopefully, our luck of ENH not producing anything of significance for DFW continues, but I would like to see some more rain.

[HockeyTx82]

Another chance for DFW on Friday, Day 2 upgraded to enhanced for hail
https://i.imgur.com/ak9xfeS.gif

Well that escalated quickly..... what happened to cause that shift?

Hopefully, our luck of ENH not producing anything of significance for DFW continues, but I would like to see some more rain.

This morning Fox 4 was like maybe a little overblown too. So who knows. Heck, slight and marginal can be bad.

[cstrunk]

3.78" from yesterday and overnight in Longview. My girlfriend in Henderson had vehicle and roof damage from hail up to baseball size.

[txtwister78]

Taking a look at the setup for tomorrow.... I think DFW is going to be on the northern edge of the severe risk and timing will be a factor once again making the enhanced risk more conditional albeit higher helicity values within the region. The front is going to be booking it south and so when do storms initiate and how fast are they undercut by the frontal boundary? Wouldn't surprise me to see the enhanced configured a little further south though with future updates.

Further south across Central and South-Central Texas temps are going to be in the mid to upper 80's with ample moisture/instability. Threat for very large hail and perhaps an isolated spin up or two will be greater (hail threat in particular) across those regions. Key factor in weighing higher hail/tornado probs will once again be the pace of the boundary and whether storms remain surfaced based or are undercut by the boundary.

Texas is definitely getting its share of high end/severe hail threats though which may continue into May.

[EnnisTx]

The 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook Has expanded the Slight Risk area quite a bit, especially South and East. The Enhanced area has expanded a little East and West, but not South as of yet.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlo ... k_1730.gif

[bubba hotep]

Taking a look at the setup for tomorrow.... I think DFW is going to be on the northern edge of the severe risk and timing will be a factor once again making the enhanced risk more conditional albeit higher helicity values within the region. The front is going to be booking it south and so when do storms initiate and how fast are they undercut by the frontal boundary? Wouldn't surprise me to see the enhanced configured a little further south though with future updates.

Further south across Central and South-Central Texas temps are going to be in the mid to upper 80's with ample moisture/instability. Threat for very large hail and perhaps an isolated spin up or two will be greater (hail threat in particular) across those regions. Key factor in weighing higher hail/tornado probs will once again be the pace of the boundary and whether storms remain surfaced based or are undercut by the boundary.

Texas is definitely getting its share of high end/severe hail threats though which may continue into May.

It looks like another highly conditional setup that could justify an upgrade to a MOD if things trend that way or it could be an ENH bust. Luckily for DFW, yesterday trended southward b/c 2-4" hailers rolling through DFW would have been pretty nasty.

[cheezyWXguy]

Taking a look at the setup for tomorrow.... I think DFW is going to be on the northern edge of the severe risk and timing will be a factor once again making the enhanced risk more conditional albeit higher helicity values within the region. The front is going to be booking it south and so when do storms initiate and how fast are they undercut by the frontal boundary? Wouldn't surprise me to see the enhanced configured a little further south though with future updates.

Further south across Central and South-Central Texas temps are going to be in the mid to upper 80's with ample moisture/instability. Threat for very large hail and perhaps an isolated spin up or two will be greater (hail threat in particular) across those regions. Key factor in weighing higher hail/tornado probs will once again be the pace of the boundary and whether storms remain surfaced based or are undercut by the boundary.

Texas is definitely getting its share of high end/severe hail threats though which may continue into May.

It looks like another highly conditional setup that could justify an upgrade to a MOD if things trend that way or it could be an ENH bust. Luckily for DFW, yesterday trended southward b/c 2-4" hailers rolling through DFW would have been pretty nasty.

I don’t like putting much faith in precip depiction, since it’s usually pretty hit-or-miss, but there’s a few runs today persistently showing a cell moving through tarrant and Dallas county tomorrow afternoon. 18z hrrr was all about it, while the 12z and 0z were a bit more dialed back, but it’s still there. 0z nam shows it too.

Not as concerned about tornadoes up here along I-20 and north, though it’s possible, but a big hailer taking that track would cause a lot of problems. I agree with the rest of y’all that the tornado threat is probably maximized further south in similar areas to yesterday’s event. Tomorrow seems like an all-or-nothing day, with not a lot in between.

[txtwister78]

Taking a look at the setup for tomorrow.... I think DFW is going to be on the northern edge of the severe risk and timing will be a factor once again making the enhanced risk more conditional albeit higher helicity values within the region. The front is going to be booking it south and so when do storms initiate and how fast are they undercut by the frontal boundary? Wouldn't surprise me to see the enhanced configured a little further south though with future updates.

Further south across Central and South-Central Texas temps are going to be in the mid to upper 80's with ample moisture/instability. Threat for very large hail and perhaps an isolated spin up or two will be greater (hail threat in particular) across those regions. Key factor in weighing higher hail/tornado probs will once again be the pace of the boundary and whether storms remain surfaced based or are undercut by the boundary.

Texas is definitely getting its share of high end/severe hail threats though which may continue into May.

It looks like another highly conditional setup that could justify an upgrade to a MOD if things trend that way or it could be an ENH bust. Luckily for DFW, yesterday trended southward b/c 2-4" hailers rolling through DFW would have been pretty nasty.

Based on the incoming 0z models (including HRRR), I'm even more convinced that the main focus for severe weather tomorrow will be across the I-35 corridor from about the Waco region down to San Antonio points East/Southeast and thus may warrant an upgrade to the enhanced risk (at least for a portion of Central and South-Central Texas).

I still think storms are likely to be disrupted/undercut by the advancing frontal boundary/dryline as they move SE and so I don't see a moderate risk unless things were to slow down more than what models have currently forecast. It wouldn't surprise me though to see hail probs increased further south as well. Tornado threat looks minimal overall to me but perhaps a brief window exists just after initiation before storms congeal into a line segment where wind damage may end up being a higher threat.

[txtwister78]

Taking a look at the setup for tomorrow.... I think DFW is going to be on the northern edge of the severe risk and timing will be a factor once again making the enhanced risk more conditional albeit higher helicity values within the region. The front is going to be booking it south and so when do storms initiate and how fast are they undercut by the frontal boundary? Wouldn't surprise me to see the enhanced configured a little further south though with future updates.

Further south across Central and South-Central Texas temps are going to be in the mid to upper 80's with ample moisture/instability. Threat for very large hail and perhaps an isolated spin up or two will be greater (hail threat in particular) across those regions. Key factor in weighing higher hail/tornado probs will once again be the pace of the boundary and whether storms remain surfaced based or are undercut by the boundary.

Texas is definitely getting its share of high end/severe hail threats though which may continue into May.

It looks like another highly conditional setup that could justify an upgrade to a MOD if things trend that way or it could be an ENH bust. Luckily for DFW, yesterday trended southward b/c 2-4" hailers rolling through DFW would have been pretty nasty.

I don’t like putting much faith in precip depiction, since it’s usually pretty hit-or-miss, but there’s a few runs today persistently showing a cell moving through tarrant and Dallas county tomorrow afternoon. 18z hrrr was all about it, while the 12z and 0z were a bit more dialed back, but it’s still there. 0z nam shows it too.

Not as concerned about tornadoes up here along I-20 and north, though it’s possible, but a big hailer taking that track would cause a lot of problems. I agree with the rest of y’all that the tornado threat is probably maximized further south in similar areas to yesterday’s event. Tomorrow seems like an all-or-nothing day, with not a lot in between.

Yeah I still feel DFW is on the northern edge of the severe weather threat tomorrow. Another case of when do things initiate and how fast does the front overtake/make it through before that window is closed. All it takes is one and so not out of the question to see an isolated severe storm or two develop along I-20 or just south, but the greater risk overall is probably going to be further south around Waco stretching down into SC TX where temps may hit 90 tomorrow. That's where I think higher hail probs to include significant hail up to baseball size could be an issue later in the day as instability is maximized.

[txtwister78]

And there it is....SPC adds enhanced risk further south into SC TX including the Austin & San Antonio metros.

 https://twitter.com/iembot_ewx/status/1651828186811084802

[bubba hotep]

And there it is....SPC adds enhanced risk further south into SC TX including the Austin & San Antonio metros.

https://twitter.com/iembot_ewx/status/1651828186811084802?s=20

It looks like they could actually downgrade the DFW area but will probably wait on the 12z guidance before doing so.

[HockeyTx82]

And there it is....SPC adds enhanced risk further south into SC TX including the Austin & San Antonio metros.

https://twitter.com/iembot_ewx/status/1651828186811084802?s=20

It looks like they could actually downgrade the DFW area but will probably wait on the 12z guidance before doing so.

I concur. HRRR shows everything south of DFW last few runs. Just hope wherever it goes off it does not get bad for anyone.

[cstrunk]

Agree with y'all - south of DFW along I-35 looks like the place for significant hail later today.

[rwfromkansas]

I like severe weather. But I don’t like baseball hail hitting my house. So I’m fine with missing out today. Lol.

Off-topic slightly but tied in with hail, but an alleged vague “storm” is causing huge issues for DFW home insurance. If you live in DFW and haven’t gotten home insurance renewal, expect to fall to the floor with increases since last fall. Mine they wanted to increase $1500. Caused escrow shortage. Shopped around but many now want a 2 percent minimum deductible or aren’t serving DFW at all anymore due to “storm risks” as if we haven’t always had storms. I found one cheaper policy with a 1 percent deductible I went with, but not much cheaper than the renewal. Just awful.

[EnnisTx]

Enhanced now from North of Dallas all the way to the Mexico Border. Don't recall seeing an Enhanced that expansive here before and with a 30% hatched area for both hail and wind covering that same area.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlo ... k_1300.gif

[Gotwood]

I like severe weather. But I don’t like baseball hail hitting my house. So I’m fine with missing out today. Lol.

Off-topic slightly but tied in with hail, but an alleged vague “storm” is causing huge issues for DFW home insurance. If you live in DFW and haven’t gotten home insurance renewal, expect to fall to the floor with increases since last fall. Mine they wanted to increase $1500. Caused escrow shortage. Shopped around but many now want a 2 percent minimum deductible or aren’t serving DFW at all anymore due to “storm risks” as if we haven’t always had storms. I found one cheaper policy with a 1 percent deductible I went with, but not much cheaper than the renewal. Just awful.

Yeah mine went up significantly as well. I don’t care for any storms today but I would love a good rain as I just put down sod lol.

[rwfromkansas]

I got 1.50 the other day, but we do need more for sure after the recent dry spell.

[Ntxw]

I like severe weather. But I don’t like baseball hail hitting my house. So I’m fine with missing out today. Lol.

Off-topic slightly but tied in with hail, but an alleged vague “storm” is causing huge issues for DFW home insurance. If you live in DFW and haven’t gotten home insurance renewal, expect to fall to the floor with increases since last fall. Mine they wanted to increase $1500. Caused escrow shortage. Shopped around but many now want a 2 percent minimum deductible or aren’t serving DFW at all anymore due to “storm risks” as if we haven’t always had storms. I found one cheaper policy with a 1 percent deductible I went with, but not much cheaper than the renewal. Just awful.

I felt it too, sticker shock. I've mentioned over and over as a homeowner these hail storms are becoming expensive, as a whole for everyone. It is one thing to have one or two every few years roll through the core urban metros. But multiple in the same season, over the same areas assesses a different kind of risk for insurance.

Covering a few mil in Coleman isn't the same as a similar coverage area in DFW for a bil+ $.

It has definitely been a rough year for hail across the US. Florida the past few days have experienced some of their worst hailstorms.