2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

[Yellow Evan]

https://i.imgur.com/2lHSaj5.png

In about a week, it looks like there will be a formidable wall of westerlies blowing across the tropical Atlantic

The ASW (or WAM?) is returning on the and will be the strongest standing wave for the next 30 days. So it's playing a part in why there's going to be strong 850mb westerlies over the MDR.

ASW=African Standing Wave- the -VP’s over Africa
WAM=West African monsoon-self explanatory but doesn’t get started until later in the spring I believe

MJO propagating to the WHEM/Africa + a timely -NAO to weaken the tropical Atlantic pressure gradient is likely to cause weaker trades and thus a noticeable warm up.

[mixedDanilo.E]

Not gonna lie to you tho, the eastern atlantic is really looking like a hot tub.

https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/data_cu ... urrent.png

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1648324501837434892

[Category5Kaiju]

https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1648324501837434892

I think at this point, it's a reasonable assumption to say that the Atlantic will go quiet after September, and the Caribbean won't be as busy season-wide. August and September might be more interesting to watch; those two months (especially early to mid September) are particularly when most of the big-gun storms in El Nino years typically happen.

[cycloneye]

Interesting all of this.

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1648330265977311235




 https://twitter.com/WxTca/status/1648330998470557701

[zzzh]

Atlantic basin ace in summer (JJA) correlates more with MDR ssta than ONI, and it correlates more with ONI than MDR ssta in SON.

[Category5Kaiju]

Atlantic basin ace in summer (JJA) correlates more with MDR ssta than ONI, and it correlates more with ONI than MDR ssta in SON.

So, by that logic, both would be important for ASO?

[cycloneye]

Atlantic basin ace in summer (JJA) correlates more with MDR ssta than ONI, and it correlates more with ONI than MDR ssta in SON.

In other words, frontloaded early part of season followed by inactive last 2 months.

[JetFuel_SE]

Atlantic basin ace in summer (JJA) correlates more with MDR ssta than ONI, and it correlates more with ONI than MDR ssta in SON.

In other words, frontloaded early part of season followed by inactive last 2 months.

So basically 2021 but less storms (except if you're the University of Arizona, then it's certainly a possibility)

[cycloneye]

Read this twitter thread with the replies and you have a very interesting discussion about WAM, ENSO and more going on.

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1648713245656596481




 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1648714044977577984




 https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1648720124042526720




 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1648737259061903370




 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1648738197206073375




 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1648741741254541324




 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1648742086877773861

[Category5Kaiju]

Ok; I actually have a question, and this isn't something I really thought about until just recently.

I was talking with a friend of mine who lives down in Miami (he follows hurricanes closely too); he asked me if it would be possible that this Atlantic season might not behave like other El Nino years (in other words, more favorable to a certain extent) because we've been firmly entrenched in a moderate La Nina state for so long (3 years, that is) and have left it so drastically (in other words, we did not have neutral limbo years in between the last La Nina year and this year, which supposedly would be El Nino). He asked me if it is possible that despite there being an El Nino later this season, if the atmosphere might take more time to respond accordingly? I now have the same question too

[Kingarabian]

In the last 3 years, we've seen active EPAC seasons despite historic Atlantic numbers in the same time period due to triple La Nina's. That's not to say La Nina effects were not felt in the EPAC though.

If this El Nino event hovers between weak and moderate during hurricane season and with the way the SST anomalies are looking in the Atlantic basin, it's a possibility that we can still see an active Atlantic.

[cycloneye]

This will turn up more heat to the Atlantic.

[dexterlabio]

I don't know about La Nina's lagging effects but as for El Nino, the Pacific (West and East) somehow got a boost in 2016 despite the transition from Super El Nino to moderate La Nina. So maybe the ENSO lag does exist?

[cycloneye]

1995 as analog?

 https://twitter.com/WorldClimateSvc/status/1649111192546181125




 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1649368426635317249




 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1649446522025590786

[Yellow Evan]

ENSO is nothing like 1995.

[chaser1]

I don't know about La Nina's lagging effects but as for El Nino, the Pacific (West and East) somehow got a boost in 2016 despite the transition from Super El Nino to moderate La Nina. So maybe the ENSO lag does exist?

I've found that profound Warm Enso events tend to (roughly) result in a 3-5 week lag with regard to suppressive Tropical Atlantic impact. Other times the lag is less pronounced such as a "light-switch", given a longer term slow and steady EPAC warming. Those years practically begin with marginal wind shear that only progresses from "already nauseous" to outright "full-on hurling chunk events"
(sorry for the graphic gastric analogy LOL)

[zzzh]

[Iceresistance]

https://i.imgur.com/KAOSsbZ.png

What is so funny? I don't see it.

[Category5Kaiju]

https://i.imgur.com/KAOSsbZ.png

What is so funny? I don't see it.

All of that red is westerlies in the tropical Atlantic. As others have mentioned here, that is going to lead to a very potent warmup in the basin (adding to what it already has now), and something of this magnitude has not really been seen since 1995 (and if you know your hurricane season trivia facts, 1995 was a hyperactive year and a landmark year that began the active Atlantic season that era we know of today).