CrazyC83 wrote:PavelGaborik10 wrote:I know the CHC had Fiona landfalling at 90 KTS in Nova Scotia PT, so it's interesting to see the NHC go with 85.
Personally considering the Sting jet reading a few hours before landfall and the fact that the winds were noticeably stronger than Juan(85 KTS) I'm a bit surprised they went with 85, I was anticipating 90, minimum.
There was also a 930 MB reading on land that missed the "center" of the low on Cape Breton Island.
That 930 may have been faulty or not representative. In the case of Juan, the winds were in a very small area (i.e., near and over Halifax Harbour) as it was a fully tropical, compact system, while Fiona was much, much larger. I've been incredibly busy the last few days with my Ph.D. dissertation and other work.
I think 120 kt is right for a peak (I estimated such as well) as well as the 931 mb tropical minimum pressure, but would have gone 85 kt at the landfall in the Dominican Republic and would have kept 90 kt for Nova Scotia landfall, thinking stronger winds were in place over water at the time (due to the sting jet location). As far as minimum pressure (while extratropical), I'd have estimated it at 928 mb at landfall, based on the earlier aircraft data and the wind speeds at the time of the Hart Island data (which was not the true landfall point).
I know they set 00Z as the time where it became ET, but you could argue it might have been a couple hours later (definitely before 06Z or landfall though, it was a quick transition).
So there is some rather significant disagreement between the CHC and NHC regarding this particular system. I'm not trying to get anybody into trouble, but through an "anonymous" source from the CHC, Juan while having a much tighter gradient of wind, still produced less wind, while with an extremely potent Sting Jet, Fiona still pumped out a 111 MPH gust, despite her strongest winds clearly being well to her south and offshore at the time as evident by the reading from recon.
The CHC feels as if max winds offshore were around 95 KTS when she came ashore, NHC went with 85 KTS, which is pretty absurd to me at least, considering Juan punched through tight core and all right through the the heart of Halifax and produced less wind than a post tropical system with it's maximum winds clearly offshore.
85 knots is just poor, I can see 90, 85? No, it simply doesn't make sense given the data presented. I tend to concur with the CHC here, 90-95 is the correct landfall intensity, despite those winds being offshore.