dexterlabio wrote:Also given that reasoning one would argue that -PDO/-ENSO year should be the most ideal combination for an active Atlantic hurricane season, but those kind of years post-1995 were not all that active. The dreaded 2013 is an example of that.
-PDO/-ENSO is the most ideal combination, though. From 1967 (start of satellite era) to 2022, -PDO/-ENSO produced the highest average ACE of any combination. This will only cover +AMO years (given that there is basically a 100% chance 2023 will have a positive AMO).
AMO data: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.amo.dat
PDO data: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat
ENSO data: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.el_nino.dat
+AMO/-PDO/-ENSO: 1988, 1989, 1996, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2005, 2007, 2008, 2010, 2011, 2013, 2016, 2017, 2020, 2021, 2022 (average ACE = 143 square hectoknots)
+AMO/+PDO/-ENSO: 1980, 1983, 1995 (average ACE = 131 square hectoknots)
+AMO/-PDO/+ENSO: 1990, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2009, 2012, 2018, 2019 (average ACE = 115 square hectoknots)
+AMO/+PDO/+ENSO: 1987, 1997, 2003, 2014, 2015 (average ACE = 77 square hectoknots)