El Niño and Intense Hurricanes ...

[Stormsfury]

Some questions and some answers regarding El Niño and Intense Hurricanes.

1992 Andrew exploded into a Cat 5 (peak winds of 150 kts) ... at one point, it almost died because of wind shear, after fighting off the shear and getting into an area much more favorable for strengthing, Andrew rapidly intensified ... the subtropical ridge was north of Andrew driving the storm due west for a number of days across Florida.

1960 Donna the entire year was neutral as a whole ...

1965 Betsy the Pacific SST's were transitioning rapidly and for July, August, and September the PAC anomalies were moderate WARM after weak Niño conditions in Jan-Mar and Neutral Apr-June.

1983 Alicia - July, August, and September - Conditions were Neutral after Strong Niño in Jan-Mar, and Moderate Warm in Apr-June ... however PAC signals clearly dominated over the ATL in regards that year ... only 4 storms developed that year, and Alicia origins were actually from a non-tropical low that became tropical in the GOM.

1998 Mitch - Developed in October - SST's were moderate La Niña conditions from October-December.

Is there a correlation with intense hurricanes and the US during El Niño ... Good question ...

The pattern is displaced during a Niño year and although fewer storms tend to be observed during those years ... the storms that happen to get the opportunity to develop into a favorable environment can sometimes explode ... and the storms usually explode outside of the deep tropics (above 20ºN) ... and generally much further west (most of the intense systems during a Niño year are NOT true Cape Verde Systems).

SF

[Anonymous]

US Major Hurricane Landfalls During Warm ENSO Years 1950-2002

The years included were years with El Nino conditions present during the heart of the season. Direct major hurricane landfalls were the only ones included. There were a bunch of majors that came fairly close to the coast before recurving or weakening just prior to landfall.


1953 0
1957 Audrey
1958 0
1963 0
1965 Betsy
1966 0
1969 Camille
1972 0
1982 0
1986 0
1987 0
1990 0
1991 0
1992 Andrew
1993 0
1994 0
1997 0
2002 0

4/18 = 22.2%


The only major that didn't hit LA was Camille...close enough.

[rainstorm]

that tells me an el-nino= a slow season. i do think in a very slow season alot of energy builds up in the tropics, so if 1 storm manages to find an area to develop, it can develop quickly, like andrew.

[Josephine96]

In my opinion.. El Nino years are some of the most dangerous cause that means a lot more people get complacent. Then an Andrew type storm comes and they get killed or they are hurt or at the very least they lose everything they own.

[Stormsfury]

That list just missed including Lili in 2002 ... which hit ... Louisiana.

TWW, thanks for that list ...

What the general idea is telling me the generally further west displacement of the Subtropical Ridge (Bermuda High) being much farther west. Thus the tendency for the majors that DO strike the US tend to be GOM storms ...

SF

[Anonymous]

Lili weakened to Cat 1 status before hitting New Iberia.


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2002lili.shtml

Hurricane Lili made landfall along the south-central coast of Louisiana near Intracoastal City. The highest observed sustained wind over land is 64 knots (Table 3), from a Texas Tech. tower near Kaplan or about 15 n mi north-northwest of Intracoastal City. The highest recorded wind gust is 104 knots at Intracoastal City. The highest aircraft flight level wind speed near the time of landfall is 88 knots at 700 mb. The highest surface wind speed estimate obtained from GPS-sondes during the last few hours before landfall is 73 knots. A mobile SMART radar measured 101 knots just above the surface south of New Iberia. The lowest surface pressure observed was 963.9 mb at the Louisiana Agriclimate Information System at Crowley. Based on the above data, the best-track maximum wind speed at landfall is estimated at 80 knots. The landfall area is sparsely populated. Most of southern Louisiana experienced sustained winds of 65 knots or less.

[Stormsfury]

Lili weakened to Cat 1 status before hitting New Iberia.


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2002lili.shtml

Hurricane Lili made landfall along the south-central coast of Louisiana near Intracoastal City. The highest observed sustained wind over land is 64 knots (Table 3), from a Texas Tech. tower near Kaplan or about 15 n mi north-northwest of Intracoastal City. The highest recorded wind gust is 104 knots at Intracoastal City. The highest aircraft flight level wind speed near the time of landfall is 88 knots at 700 mb. The highest surface wind speed estimate obtained from GPS-sondes during the last few hours before landfall is 73 knots. A mobile SMART radar measured 101 knots just above the surface south of New Iberia. The lowest surface pressure observed was 963.9 mb at the Louisiana Agriclimate Information System at Crowley. Based on the above data, the best-track maximum wind speed at landfall is estimated at 80 knots. The landfall area is sparsely populated. Most of southern Louisiana experienced sustained winds of 65 knots or less.

I misworded my original post ... Lili just missed making that list of El Niño Landfalls in the US because of the sudden weakening experienced before landfall ...

[Anonymous]

Oh I see...thanks for the comments.

[Anonymous]

Southeast Louisiana does have the greatest potential of getting hit by a MH during an El Nino year with about a 7% probability.

[AussieMark]

What are the ratios of Texas.

i.e

Alicia

Audrey(was near enough)

[Anonymous]

About 5% near Houston...almost zip farther south.

[Anonymous]

We will be releasing our first preliminary forecast on November 26. We will probably wait a while before releasing landfall forecasts though.

[wxman57]

Alicia in 1983 (strong El Nino year) hit Galveston, TX as a Cat 3 hurricane (just barely) with 100kt wind - though there were no observations of 100kt sustained wind.

[Stormsfury]

Alicia in 1983 (strong El Nino year) hit Galveston, TX as a Cat 3 hurricane (just barely) with 100kt wind - though there were no observations of 100kt sustained wind.

Neutral West/Central - Strong East Regions

[wxman57]

Alicia in 1983 (strong El Nino year) hit Galveston, TX as a Cat 3 hurricane (just barely) with 100kt wind - though there were no observations of 100kt sustained wind.

Neutral West/Central - Strong East Regions

So, yes, 1983 was a very strong El Nino year - one of the strongest in quite a while. There were only 4 storms in 1983. I remember S. California being pounded all winter by storms - typical of a strong El Nino.

[Stormsfury]

Alicia in 1983 (strong El Nino year) hit Galveston, TX as a Cat 3 hurricane (just barely) with 100kt wind - though there were no observations of 100kt sustained wind.

Neutral West/Central - Strong East Regions

So, yes, 1983 was a very strong El Nino year - one of the strongest in quite a while. There were only 4 storms in 1983. I remember S. California being pounded all winter by storms - typical of a strong El Nino.

1983 didn't end that way though. Did you notice the cool stripe in the central PAC? That cool anomaly area increased in areal coverage by the end of the year. But 1982-1983 was one of the strongest Niño episode along with 1997-1998. I've saved maps up to 1990 so far from the LongPaddock Site and I hope to have a separate page created for the climatological SST's since 1982 ... they will all be 1 year JAVA Loops and I just might create a 21 year loop as well ...

I may have the page up by tonight ... maybe.

[Anonymous]

The ENSO data was based on the ENSO episodes page from CPC. CPC has neutral ENSO conditions during JAS and cold conditions in OND.

[Stormsfury]

The ENSO data was based on the ENSO episodes page from CPC. CPC has neutral ENSO conditions during JAS and cold conditions in OND.

That's where I originally got my data from and with the conflicting information, I did a search and found the best information was from the LongPaddock site ... I saved the maps from 1982-1993 and will finish either tonight or tomorrow (weather permitting ... a lot to go on state side with severe weather tomorrow and Tuesday) ...

Anyway, I plan to create one year loops for each year and put them up on a separate page on my site in the next couple of days...

SF

[Stormsfury]

1982 and 1983 Loop is Done ... The rest will be ready in the next day or so complete with a new page ..

http://www.stormsfury1.com/Weather/Floo ... 2SSTs.html

http://www.stormsfury1.com/Weather/Floo ... 3SSTs.html

[Anonymous]

Just looked at some NCEP reanalysis data....maps look the same.