2022 TCRs
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139717
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: 2022 TCR's
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139717
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: 2022 TCR's: Hurricane Lisa is up
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139717
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: 2022 TCR's: Hurricane Nicole is up
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139717
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: 2022 TCR's: Hurricane Nicole / Tropical Storm Gaston are up
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 33399
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: 2022 TCR's: Hurricane Nicole / Tropical Storm Gaston are up
The only basis on the landfall intensity for Nicole was radar data and it was offshore. It appears it may have weakened slightly as it was coming in - I wonder if 60 kt was a better estimate there?
1 likes
- galaxy401
- Category 5
- Posts: 2301
- Age: 29
- Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:04 pm
- Location: Casa Grande, Arizona
Re: 2022 TCR's
Bonnie has been released for both the Atlantic and the Pacific. Intensity at Atlantic landfall slightly stronger at 50 kts. This just leaves Kay in the Pacific and Earl, Fiona, and Ian for the Atlantic.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL022 ... Bonnie.pdf
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL022 ... Bonnie.pdf
1 likes
Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.
-
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 33399
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: 2022 TCR's
Earl is now out. New peak intensity of 95 kt.
I'd have gone with 100 kt based on the objective data, out of respect of the ADT and the fact it was still over fairly warm water. That would support a pressure of about 942 mb.
I'd have gone with 100 kt based on the objective data, out of respect of the ADT and the fact it was still over fairly warm water. That would support a pressure of about 942 mb.
3 likes
- Category5Kaiju
- Category 5
- Posts: 3443
- Age: 22
- Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
- Location: Seattle
Re: 2022 TCR's
CrazyC83 wrote:Earl is now out. New peak intensity of 95 kt.
I'd have gone with 100 kt based on the objective data, out of respect of the ADT and the fact it was still over fairly warm water. That would support a pressure of about 942 mb.
Earl 2022 (110/948) joins Alex 2010 (110/946) as among the most intense Atlantic hurricanes that peaked at Cat 2 strength, especially with their sub-950 mbar pressures. Both really just missed Cat 3 status by a hair.
0 likes
Unless explicitly stated, all information covered in my posts is based on my opinions and observations. Please refer to a professional meteorologist or an accredited weather research agency otherwise, especially if serious decisions must be made in the event of a potentially life-threatening tropical storm or hurricane.
-
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 33399
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: 2022 TCR's
Category5Kaiju wrote:CrazyC83 wrote:Earl is now out. New peak intensity of 95 kt.
I'd have gone with 100 kt based on the objective data, out of respect of the ADT and the fact it was still over fairly warm water. That would support a pressure of about 942 mb.
Earl 2022 (110/948) joins Alex 2010 (110/946) as among the most intense Atlantic hurricanes that peaked at Cat 2 strength, especially with their sub-950 mbar pressures. Both really just missed Cat 3 status by a hair.
The only other one I know in that range is Ginny (946 mb I believe).
0 likes
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139717
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: 2022 TCR's: Hurricane Earl is up
Read the Hurricane Earl report here. Only Fiona and Ian are left for the North Atlantic and Kay for the Eastern Pacific.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139717
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: 2022 TCR's: Hurricane Fiona is up
7 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
- Category 1
- Posts: 404
- Joined: Tue Sep 04, 2018 3:23 pm
Re: 2022 TCR's
I know the CHC had Fiona landfalling at 90 KTS in Nova Scotia PT, so it's interesting to see the NHC go with 85.
Personally considering the Sting jet reading a few hours before landfall and the fact that the winds were noticeably stronger than Juan(85 KTS) I'm a bit surprised they went with 85, I was anticipating 90, minimum.
There was also a 930 MB reading on land that missed the "center" of the low on Cape Breton Island.
Personally considering the Sting jet reading a few hours before landfall and the fact that the winds were noticeably stronger than Juan(85 KTS) I'm a bit surprised they went with 85, I was anticipating 90, minimum.
There was also a 930 MB reading on land that missed the "center" of the low on Cape Breton Island.
3 likes
- JetFuel_SE
- Category 1
- Posts: 279
- Age: 24
- Joined: Thu Apr 30, 2020 3:57 pm
Re: 2022 TCR's
PavelGaborik10 wrote:I know the CHC had Fiona landfalling at 90 KTS in Nova Scotia PT, so it's interesting to see the NHC go with 85.
Personally considering the Sting jet reading a few hours before landfall and the fact that the winds were noticeably stronger than Juan(85 KTS) I'm a bit surprised they went with 85, I was anticipating 90, minimum.
There was also a 930 MB reading on land that missed the "center" of the low on Cape Breton Island.
Guess we'll just have to wait until like the 2070s for when they reach 2023 in reanalysis
5 likes
- ColdMiser123
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 780
- Age: 27
- Joined: Mon Sep 26, 2016 3:26 pm
- Location: Northeast US
Re: 2022 TCR's: Hurricane Nicole / Tropical Storm Gaston are up
CrazyC83 wrote:The only basis on the landfall intensity for Nicole was radar data and it was offshore. It appears it may have weakened slightly as it was coming in - I wonder if 60 kt was a better estimate there?
A WeatherStem station in Daytona Beach, FSWN, had a sustained wind of 62 kt right before it went offline, presumably due to the high winds there. Could make a case that this station observation combined with potential undersampling effects would support pockets of 64 kt right by the beaches.
I didn't see this station listed in the TCR, so I reached out to Jack Beven to get his thoughts on this wind observation.
5 likes
B.S., M.S., Meteorology & Atmospheric Science
-
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 33399
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: 2022 TCR's
PavelGaborik10 wrote:I know the CHC had Fiona landfalling at 90 KTS in Nova Scotia PT, so it's interesting to see the NHC go with 85.
Personally considering the Sting jet reading a few hours before landfall and the fact that the winds were noticeably stronger than Juan(85 KTS) I'm a bit surprised they went with 85, I was anticipating 90, minimum.
There was also a 930 MB reading on land that missed the "center" of the low on Cape Breton Island.
That 930 may have been faulty or not representative. In the case of Juan, the winds were in a very small area (i.e., near and over Halifax Harbour) as it was a fully tropical, compact system, while Fiona was much, much larger. I've been incredibly busy the last few days with my Ph.D. dissertation and other work.
I think 120 kt is right for a peak (I estimated such as well) as well as the 931 mb tropical minimum pressure, but would have gone 85 kt at the landfall in the Dominican Republic and would have kept 90 kt for Nova Scotia landfall, thinking stronger winds were in place over water at the time (due to the sting jet location). As far as minimum pressure (while extratropical), I'd have estimated it at 928 mb at landfall, based on the earlier aircraft data and the wind speeds at the time of the Hart Island data (which was not the true landfall point).
I know they set 00Z as the time where it became ET, but you could argue it might have been a couple hours later (definitely before 06Z or landfall though, it was a quick transition).
3 likes
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139717
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: 2022 TCR's: Hurricane Ian is up
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- Category5Kaiju
- Category 5
- Posts: 3443
- Age: 22
- Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
- Location: Seattle
Re: 2022 TCR's: Hurricane Ian is up
Gosh darn, so it really did reach Cat 5 status (even briefly)!
A well-warranted upgrade!
1 likes
Unless explicitly stated, all information covered in my posts is based on my opinions and observations. Please refer to a professional meteorologist or an accredited weather research agency otherwise, especially if serious decisions must be made in the event of a potentially life-threatening tropical storm or hurricane.
-
- Category 2
- Posts: 678
- Age: 23
- Joined: Sun Sep 29, 2019 7:33 pm
- Location: New Jersey
Re: 2022 TCR's: Hurricane Ian is up
Wow. They really did have the balls to upgrade Ian after all that. Holy poop. Well, guess we have our first legit C5 in 3 years!
0 likes
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139717
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: 2022 TCR's: Hurricane Ian is up (Upgraded to Cat 5)
Here are their words about the upgrade to cat 5.
7 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- weeniepatrol
- Category 3
- Posts: 871
- Joined: Sat Aug 22, 2020 5:30 pm
- Location: WA State