Texas Spring 2023

[Quixotic]

We have our cars in the garage, but we just replaced a bunch of shingles from the last wind storm.

We are having to change insurance policies because they are jacking up our rate by almost $1500 a year despite no claims. But, that means we now will have a 2% deductible on wind/hail roof damage instead of 1%.

I think I am north of where any potential tornado will go through, but this storm looks nasty.

So nasty I may pull out the old PC I never use to just use GRlevelx.

They’re going to Jack up your rates whether you claim or not if the area got pummeled. Found that out on one of my cars.

[bubba hotep]

 https://twitter.com/Wx_Intercepts/status/1636465315541295115

[bubba hotep]

Mesoscale Discussion 0294
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0343 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023

Areas affected...the Dallas/Fort Worth metroplex and vicinity

Concerning...Tornado Watch 68...

Valid 162043Z - 162215Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 68 continues.

SUMMARY...An ongoing supercell in Parker County will pose a locally
greater threat for very large hail and tornadoes in the Dallas/Forth
Worth metroplex and vicinity in the next 30-60 minutes.

DISCUSSION...A discrete supercell has developed in the open warm
sector ahead of a cold front surging through the Red River Valley. A
slight right turn roughly 30 mins ago has yielded increasingly
deviant motion around 275 degrees at around 37 kts. This is around
15-20 degrees farther right and 5-10 kts faster than the expected
Bunkers-right storm motion from the current KFWS VAD. This observed
motion yields roughly 350 J/kg of 0-1-km SRH from the KFWS VAD (>
250 J/kg of which is concentrated in the lowest 500 m AGL). The
recent 20z FWD radiosonde revealed some MLCIN (around 40 J/kg) with
around 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Radar and visual observations suggest a
predominantly HP storm mode which, along with the small amount of
MLCIN, may be responsible for tempering the tornado threat thus far.
However, given environmental and radar trends, the threats for a
significant, impactful hailstorm and some tornadoes are increasing
for the Dallas/Fort Worth metroplex within the hour.

..Flournoy/Squitieri.. 03/16/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...

[Iceresistance]

New Severe Thunderstorm Warning for 70 mph winds and Tennis Ball Sized Hail, there is a "TORNADO POSSIBLE" tag with it.

[dpep4]

Those in or near Saginaw, grab your tennis rackets!

[DallasAg]

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0294.gif


Mesoscale Discussion 0294
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0343 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023

Areas affected...the Dallas/Fort Worth metroplex and vicinity

Concerning...Tornado Watch 68...

Valid 162043Z - 162215Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 68 continues.

SUMMARY...An ongoing supercell in Parker County will pose a locally
greater threat for very large hail and tornadoes in the Dallas/Forth
Worth metroplex and vicinity in the next 30-60 minutes.

DISCUSSION...A discrete supercell has developed in the open warm
sector ahead of a cold front surging through the Red River Valley. A
slight right turn roughly 30 mins ago has yielded increasingly
deviant motion around 275 degrees at around 37 kts. This is around
15-20 degrees farther right and 5-10 kts faster than the expected
Bunkers-right storm motion from the current KFWS VAD. This observed
motion yields roughly 350 J/kg of 0-1-km SRH from the KFWS VAD (>
250 J/kg of which is concentrated in the lowest 500 m AGL). The
recent 20z FWD radiosonde revealed some MLCIN (around 40 J/kg) with
around 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Radar and visual observations suggest a
predominantly HP storm mode which, along with the small amount of
MLCIN, may be responsible for tempering the tornado threat thus far.
However, given environmental and radar trends, the threats for a
significant, impactful hailstorm and some tornadoes are increasing
for the Dallas/Fort Worth metroplex within the hour.

..Flournoy/Squitieri.. 03/16/2023

...Please see http://www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...

That thing is really starting to stretch out E-W across Tarrant Co. Hook looks impressive to my untrained eye. I feel like we've seen this same setup in the past. March 2000, April 2002, 2012, etc. Lone supercell drops a tornado somewhere in Tarrant Co around rush hour and make things very uncomfortable in Dallas Co.

[bubba hotep]

3" Report!

 https://twitter.com/iembot_fwd/status/1636471240260222988

[Ntxw]

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0294.gif


Mesoscale Discussion 0294
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0343 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023

Areas affected...the Dallas/Fort Worth metroplex and vicinity

Concerning...Tornado Watch 68...

Valid 162043Z - 162215Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 68 continues.

SUMMARY...An ongoing supercell in Parker County will pose a locally
greater threat for very large hail and tornadoes in the Dallas/Forth
Worth metroplex and vicinity in the next 30-60 minutes.

DISCUSSION...A discrete supercell has developed in the open warm
sector ahead of a cold front surging through the Red River Valley. A
slight right turn roughly 30 mins ago has yielded increasingly
deviant motion around 275 degrees at around 37 kts. This is around
15-20 degrees farther right and 5-10 kts faster than the expected
Bunkers-right storm motion from the current KFWS VAD. This observed
motion yields roughly 350 J/kg of 0-1-km SRH from the KFWS VAD (>
250 J/kg of which is concentrated in the lowest 500 m AGL). The
recent 20z FWD radiosonde revealed some MLCIN (around 40 J/kg) with
around 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Radar and visual observations suggest a
predominantly HP storm mode which, along with the small amount of
MLCIN, may be responsible for tempering the tornado threat thus far.
However, given environmental and radar trends, the threats for a
significant, impactful hailstorm and some tornadoes are increasing
for the Dallas/Fort Worth metroplex within the hour.

..Flournoy/Squitieri.. 03/16/2023

...Please see http://www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...

That thing is really starting to stretch out E-W across Tarrant Co. Hook looks impressive to my untrained eye. I feel like we've seen this same setup in the past. March 2000, April 2002, 2012, etc. Lone supercell drops a tornado somewhere in Tarrant Co around rush hour and make things very uncomfortable in Dallas Co.

Velocity isn't as impressive compared to when it was over Parker co. Stretched out, so far, has reduced the hail core some. Still dangerous but hopefully weakening persists.

[bubba hotep]

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0294.gif


Mesoscale Discussion 0294
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0343 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023

Areas affected...the Dallas/Fort Worth metroplex and vicinity

Concerning...Tornado Watch 68...

Valid 162043Z - 162215Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 68 continues.

SUMMARY...An ongoing supercell in Parker County will pose a locally
greater threat for very large hail and tornadoes in the Dallas/Forth
Worth metroplex and vicinity in the next 30-60 minutes.

DISCUSSION...A discrete supercell has developed in the open warm
sector ahead of a cold front surging through the Red River Valley. A
slight right turn roughly 30 mins ago has yielded increasingly
deviant motion around 275 degrees at around 37 kts. This is around
15-20 degrees farther right and 5-10 kts faster than the expected
Bunkers-right storm motion from the current KFWS VAD. This observed
motion yields roughly 350 J/kg of 0-1-km SRH from the KFWS VAD (>
250 J/kg of which is concentrated in the lowest 500 m AGL). The
recent 20z FWD radiosonde revealed some MLCIN (around 40 J/kg) with
around 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Radar and visual observations suggest a
predominantly HP storm mode which, along with the small amount of
MLCIN, may be responsible for tempering the tornado threat thus far.
However, given environmental and radar trends, the threats for a
significant, impactful hailstorm and some tornadoes are increasing
for the Dallas/Fort Worth metroplex within the hour.

..Flournoy/Squitieri.. 03/16/2023

...Please see http://www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...

That thing is really starting to stretch out E-W across Tarrant Co. Hook looks impressive to my untrained eye. I feel like we've seen this same setup in the past. March 2000, April 2002, 2012, etc. Lone supercell drops a tornado somewhere in Tarrant Co around rush hour and make things very uncomfortable in Dallas Co.

Velocity isn't as impressive compared to when it was over Parker co. Stretched out, so far, has reduced the hail core some. Still dangerous but hopefully weakening persists.

Was just going to post that it seems to be recalibrating with the background flow and not as deviant as earlier. Also, cells coming from behind will hopefully start to interfere with the meso.

[rwfromkansas]

Sirens sounding for only 60 mph gusts and ping pong hail. Seems a bit excessive, but that's DFW for you.

So far, this storm is just a run-of-the-mill severe so far.

Not like a few weeks ago.

[Quixotic]

Mayfest 95 like trajectory

[Iceresistance]

Why is the storm weakening on radar? Too close to radar?

[TarrantWx]

Why is the storm weakening on radar? Too close to radar?

Probably running into some slightly more stable air. The temperature never got as warm in DFW as it was supposed to or as it did further West due to cloud cover.

[Iceresistance]

Reed Timmer has a Couplet that is tightening up over Fort Worth.

[Ntxw]

Velocity ramping up west of DT fort worth.

[EnnisTx]

Sirens sounding for only 60 mph gusts and ping pong hail. Seems a bit excessive, but that's DFW for you.

So far, this storm is just a run-of-the-mill severe so far.

Not like a few weeks ago.

That's not excessive. This storm was putting down ping pong size hail with a history of up to tennis ball size hail. The sirens are to alert the public outside of their homes of a significant threat. And if your outside that's significant.

[Ntxw]

 https://twitter.com/NWSFortWorth/status/1636476217233936384

[rwfromkansas]

Steve MacCauley said the clouds are basically what saved DFW from this one. I guess. It still was pretty warm here today, close to 80.

[txtwister78]

Tornado warned (not sighted though)

Definitely looked like it had spun up per last scan but nonetheless take cover folks and be safe in DFW

[Iceresistance]

Reed Timmer has a possible tornado on the ground in Fort Worth!