Texas Spring 2023

[cstrunk]

If I were storm chasing today I'd set up between Lawton, OK and the Red River for initiation and follow storms east.

Denton, TX wouldn't be a bad place to start either.

[Iceresistance]

It only got down to the upper 50s, DP is 55°F

[Iceresistance]

Lightning coming into Fort Worth right now.

[utpmg]

From EWX (austin/san antonio) morning discussion:

[cheezyWXguy]

12z hrrr goes haywire with the stp over dfw this evening, doesn’t mean much in the grand scheme of things though. More important is that the spc bumped up tor probs to 10% from just east of Dallas into east Texas. I swear that region can’t catch a break

[txtwister78]

From EWX (austin/san antonio) morning discussion:

https://i.imgur.com/04oOXv1.png

Yup definitely would be a wild intro to "Spring" if we can get that to verify for parts of South-Central Texas. While models have definitely cutback on the overall coverage/amounts over the last few days, they have centered on this particular region as of late giving a bit more confidence to the potential of this actually verifying for some (just NW of SA metro where higher elevation exists into southern HC/Edwards Plateau region).

If I'm not mistaken, I don't think we've ever experienced measurable snowfall that far south into TX this late into March? I've seen a few reports from local Mets mentioning the first week of March for the HC/Austin Area, but this would definitely be something to talk about for a long time should it occur.

[txtwister78]

[utpmg]

From EWX (austin/san antonio) morning discussion:

https://i.imgur.com/04oOXv1.png

If I'm not mistaken, I don't think we've ever experienced measurable snowfall that far south into TX this late into March? I've seen a few reports from local Mets mentioning the first week of March for the HC/Austin Area, but this would definitely be something to talk about for a long time should it occur.

I don't trust some of the official "Trace" mentions of snow in the climate record for Austin, but I see 0.3" on March 18, 1934, and a 0.1" on March 27, 1930.
Both are before my time here so I can't confirm.

[Iceresistance]

Uh oh


https://s2.gifyu.com/images/mcd0290.gif

Mesoscale Discussion 0290
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1027 AM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023

Areas affected...portions of southwest into central OK

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 161527Z - 161730Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase from
southwest into central OK over the next 1-2 hours. Hail will be the
main hazard with initial thunderstorms into early afternoon. A watch
may be needed in the next hour or so.

DISCUSSION...Areas of deeper convective cells are developing within
broader area of showers across western OK late this morning ahead of
a fast, southeastward-advancing surface cold front. An elevated
mixed-layer noted in 12z regional RAOBs may result in initial
thunderstorm activity remaining elevated. Also, as the cold front
quickly progresses southeast, initial storms late this morning into
midday may quickly become undercut by the front. Forecast RAP/NAM
soundings indicate some erosion of steeper midlevel lapse rates is
occurring as early showers move across central OK. However, midlevel
lapse rates, coupled with favorable shear profiles and modest
instability, should support a few organized cells/clusters capable
of producing hail.

There is some uncertainty in intensity of initial storms in a narrow
corridor (generally along the I-44/I-40 corridor) in central OK the
next few hours. However, a greater severe threat, including
potential for a few tornadoes, is expected just south and east
across south-central/southeast OK and north TX, where more favorable
surface-based convection is expected by mid-afternoon. While the
tornado threat may be lower across the narrow corridor of mainly
large hail potential across central OK, a watch may be needed in the
next hour or so.

[bubba hotep]

There appears to be a very brief window for a significant tornado across DFW if storms can fire along the dryline and mature before the cold front overtakes things.

[Iceresistance]

Crap, the Bulk Shear is stronger and SCP is higher in Northern Texas than expected.

[somethingfunny]

This morning crapvection has us down to 62 degrees in McKinney at 11:30 AM. It doesn't feel like a pending severe weather outbreak...

[Iceresistance]

Sun is trying to come out at my location

[Iceresistance]

Watching the storms, they're in Linear Mode right now along I-44

[Iceresistance]

Observed noon sounding of the NWS of Norman, STP of a 2.5


https://s2.gifyu.com/images/last.gif

[bubba hotep]

Mesoscale Discussion 0291
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023

Areas affected...portions of the Red River Valley in south-central
OK and north TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 161752Z - 161845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The threat for damaging wind gusts, large hail, and a few
tornadoes is increasing. A WW will likely be issued in the next
couple of hours.

DISCUSSION...As a mid-level wave overspreads the region, ongoing
convection initiation (currently located along the I-44 corridor in
southwestern/central OK) is expected to continue southwestward into
portions of north TX. This will occur along a surging cold front
and, possibly, ahead of the cold front near a triple point along an
eastward surging dryline. All severe hazards will be possible with
these storms, including a few tornadoes (perhaps one or two strong),
large hail, and damaging wind gusts. A WW will likely be needed in
the next 1-2 hours.

For storms initiating along the cold front, the nature of associated
hazards will depend on a delicate balance between expected storm
motion and cold front motion. Given a southward-surging cold front,
sustained surface-based supercells appear unlikely. However,
forecast soundings suggest early/mature supercell bearings around
240/260 degrees, respectively. The cold front also turns sharply
toward the northeast through western OK (roughly from LTS/OJA/WDG).
These factors may support more sustained surface-based inflow with
any supercells forming along that portion of the cold front,
suggesting a greater threat for tornadoes and damaging wind gusts.
Regardless of the surface-based nature of the inflow, any supercell
forming near the front will pose a threat for large hail given
substantial low-level moisture, steep mid-level lapse rates, and
large bulk shear.

A conditional threat for a few tornadoes, perhaps one or two strong,
and large, damaging hail could materialize if any pre-frontal
discrete supercells form. The greatest chance for this to occur
should reside along the Red River Valley, downstream of an
anticipated triple point around 19-20z near CDS. Some CAM guidance
suggests successful convection initiation in this area. Any storms
forming here would move eastward into an environment supportive of
strong tornadoes and very large hail. Bubbling Cu are currently
noted in northwest TX ahead of the cold front. Should successful
convection initiation occur here, a local corridor of greater
severe-weather potential may materialize this afternoon along the
Red River Valley.

..Flournoy/Kerr.. 03/16/2023

...Please see http://www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

[Iceresistance]

Golf Ball Sized hail reported in Frederick.

[Quixotic]

I can do without the hail.

[bubba hotep]

[Iceresistance]

Cold Front just passed me, temperatures nosediving.