Texas Spring 2023

[txtwister78]

I'm not suggesting this will verify, but you have to admit these are interesting signals for ensemble runs within a 6-day window (both 12z & 6z). CMC ENS/EURO similar look as well.

If it wasn't for climatology (showing up in mid-March) this forum would be alive and well right about now (maybe not so much the DFW folks/region but just at the overall prospect of snow in the middle of March for a good chunk of the state). My guess is if we do see some snow or sleet in parts of the state on Sunday night or early Monday it's going to be more elevation driven but I'd almost be willing to drive to see it in the HC if this ends up coming to pass.

https://m3o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gefsens/2023031312/186/sn10_acc-mean-imp.us_sc.png

https://m3o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gefsens/2023031306/192/sn10_acc-mean-imp.us_sc.png

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/cmceens/2023031312/180/sn10_acc-mean-imp.us_sc.png

[wxman57]

Wasn't the GFS forecasting a big snow storm across Texas for this past weekend just two weeks ago? It's already too dang cold to go outside. Just 67 degrees at 2:30pm! Ready for July.

[HockeyTx82]

I'm not suggesting this will verify, but you have to admit these are interesting signals for ensemble runs within a 6-day window (both 12z & 6z). CMC ENS/EURO similar look as well.

If it wasn't for climatology (showing up in mid-March) this forum would be alive and well right about now (maybe not so much the DFW folks/region but just at the overall prospect of snow in the middle of March for a good chunk of the state). My guess is if we do see some snow or sleet in parts of the state on Sunday night or early Monday it's going to be more elevation driven but I'd almost be willing to drive to see it in the HC if this ends up coming to pass.

https://m3o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gefsens/2023031312/186/sn10_acc-mean-imp.us_sc.png

https://m3o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gefsens/2023031306/192/sn10_acc-mean-imp.us_sc.png

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/cmceens/2023031312/180/sn10_acc-mean-imp.us_sc.png

Looks like the models are celebrating St. Patrick's Day a wee bit early.....

[Yukon Cornelius]

Perfect March day. Didn’t make it above 45 for the majority of the day.

[Bhow]

Euro sure is insistent on snow in Austin/Hill country. With temps in the mid 30s and ample moisture we could see some huge wet flakes. Would be a wild way to end winter

[txtwister78]

 https://twitter.com/NWSSPC/status/1635544051578720257

[Edwards Limestone]

 https://twitter.com/NWSSanAntonio/status/1635429386508984322

[wxman57]

12Z GFS is backing away from the TX snow event near the end of the month. I know, shocking. It does have some snow for the Hill Country next Sun-Mon. We'll see how long before it drops that event, too.

[txtwister78]

12Z GFS is backing away from the TX snow event near the end of the month. I know, shocking. It does have some snow for the Hill Country next Sun-Mon. We'll see how long before it drops that event, too.

Euro definitely hasn't and despite its operational not showing much, the CMC ENS still has a decent snow signal for portions of west TX down into the HC/Edwards Plateau region. But being that this is going to be elevation driven with timing of precip a big factor in determining ultimate precip type, GFS doesn't surprise me all that much. Probably still a few days away before we see how it all plays out.

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2023031412/162/sn10_acc-imp.us_sc.png

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/cmceens/2023031412/162/sn10_acc-mean-imp.us_sc.png

[Iceresistance]

We need to get past the severe weather potential for Thursday first, SREF has a 60% STP south of Dallas.

[cheezyWXguy]

We need to get past the severe weather potential for Thursday first, SREF has a 60% STP south of Dallas.

Haha, and don’t look at the latest CWASP and its 90% area. In all seriousness though, wouldn’t be surprised if they go enhanced IF the dryline looks like it will be active.

If storms are only active on the WSW-ENE oriented cold front, the event will be mainly a southward diving mcs, since storm vectors are pretty much parallel to the front (like the NAM precip map shows). Probably fine with just a slight risk in that situation.

However, those same vectors are much more perpendicular to the N-S oriented dryline that’ll be pushing into western NTX by mid afternoon. If anything manages to fire off the dryline before the cold front overtakes it, that would be the primary location for a tornado/hail risk that I personally think could justify an upgrade. Wonder what the HRRR will show when it comes into range tonight/tomorrow

[Iceresistance]

We need to get past the severe weather potential for Thursday first, SREF has a 60% STP south of Dallas.

Haha, and don’t look at the latest CWASP and its 90% area. In all seriousness though, wouldn’t be surprised if they go enhanced IF the dryline looks like it will be active.

If storms are only active on the WSW-ENE oriented cold front, the event will be mainly a southward diving mcs, since storm vectors are pretty much parallel to the front (like the NAM precip map shows). Probably fine with just a slight risk in that situation.

However, those same vectors are much more perpendicular to the N-S oriented dryline that’ll be pushing into western NTX by mid afternoon. If anything manages to fire off the dryline before the cold front overtakes it, that would be the primary location for a tornado/hail risk that I personally think could justify an upgrade. Wonder what the HRRR will show when it comes into range tonight/tomorrow

21z SREF has 75% STI east of Austin or Waco.
(STP does not have a percentage)

[ElectricStorm]

First look at the HRRR has a mostly linear event for the majority of the slight risk area, but I think we could see some increased tornado potential in SE TX. Looks like convection starts firing pretty early in the day, so I think the southern part of the slight risk will be the area to maximize daytime heating.

Not sure there's enough there to support an upgrade to enhanced yet, but I think we could see an upgrade at some point, especially for wind. The HRRR at this range tends to not be quite as accurate so we'll have to see if it starts firing more open warm sector convection in future runs.

[cstrunk]

SPC adds an enhanced risk to NC/NE TX and extreme SE OK in the Day 2 Outlook.

[Cpv17]

Yawn for my area with this upcoming severe weather event.

[Iceresistance]

Yawn for my area with this upcoming severe weather event.

At least it's going to rain in areas that are under the drought.

[Iceresistance]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1635967630552055808

[Iceresistance]

My goodness, the STP parameters are crazy for Mid-March. 9z SREF has STP parameters around a 4 in Texas.

SCP are near the double digits.

[Iceresistance]

12z HRRR has a Triple Point Supercell in Oklahoma, the Triple Point area is definitely trending north and some west.

[Iceresistance]

Enhanced risk larger to the north, now includes Ada, OK


https://s2.gifyu.com/images/OK_swody2.png