Texas Spring 2023
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- Texas Snowman
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Re: Texas Spring 2023
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The above post and any post by Texas Snowman is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
- Texas Snowman
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- Location: Denison, Texas
Re: Texas Spring 2023
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The above post and any post by Texas Snowman is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re: Texas Spring 2023
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0217.html
Conditional severe threat for central/NE Texas (20% chance for a watch). Cap to hinder development.
Conditional severe threat for central/NE Texas (20% chance for a watch). Cap to hinder development.
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Re: Texas Spring 2023
Texas Snowman wrote:The plot thickens…
https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/1631019045402165248?s=46&t=-5lM_vdlE9nb5DLG3wNfmg
What’s Webb saying? He’s usually the one that’s conservative with winter weather events.
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- bubba hotep
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- Iceresistance
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- Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK
Re: Texas Spring 2023
Cpv17 wrote:Texas Snowman wrote:The plot thickens…
https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/1631019045402165248?s=46&t=-5lM_vdlE9nb5DLG3wNfmg
What’s Webb saying? He’s usually the one that’s conservative with winter weather events.
Nothing yet
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- cheezyWXguy
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- Location: Dallas, TX
- bubba hotep
- S2K Supporter
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- Joined: Wed Dec 28, 2016 1:00 am
- Location: Collin County Texas
Re: Texas Spring 2023
Texas Snowman wrote:The plot thickens…
https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/1631019045402165248?s=46&t=-5lM_vdlE9nb5DLG3wNfmg
Dr. Maue is late to the party. I feel like this upcoming pattern was almost as easy to pick up in the longer range as the Christmas cold snap.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
- Texas Snowman
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Re: Texas Spring 2023
Spring cancel…
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The above post and any post by Texas Snowman is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
- Texas Snowman
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- Joined: Fri Jan 25, 2008 11:29 am
- Location: Denison, Texas
Re: Texas Spring 2023
You have called for this for some time now, no doubt…
bubba hotep wrote:Texas Snowman wrote:The plot thickens…
https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/1631019045402165248?s=46&t=-5lM_vdlE9nb5DLG3wNfmg
Dr. Maue is late to the party. I feel like this upcoming pattern was almost as easy to pick up in the longer range as the Christmas cold snap.
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The above post and any post by Texas Snowman is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
- bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Spring 2023
00z HRRR looks tricky tomorrow with storm mode, but there does appear to be a moisture gradient across DFW that focuses some early convection before the main line pushes through. A few nasty updrafts are embedded in the line.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
- Texas Snowman
- Storm2k Moderator
- Posts: 6085
- Joined: Fri Jan 25, 2008 11:29 am
- Location: Denison, Texas
Re: Texas Spring 2023
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The above post and any post by Texas Snowman is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
- Iceresistance
- Category 5
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Re: Texas Spring 2023
And we're in the middle!
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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- Category 5
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- Location: North Fort Worth
Re: Texas Spring 2023
So is the snow threat legit or just noise?
So busy with yearbook only have time to check here a few times a day.
So busy with yearbook only have time to check here a few times a day.
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- Category 1
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Re: Texas Spring 2023
I think the chance will be if the pna don't go positive if we are to have a realistic chance of winter precipitation. If it does it will be way east of us unfortunately. Imo of course. I'm hoping we have one last opportunity here. It's a very cold pattern advertised for sure.
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- cheezyWXguy
- Category 5
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Re: Texas Spring 2023
bubba hotep wrote:00z HRRR looks tricky tomorrow with storm mode, but there does appear to be a moisture gradient across DFW that focuses some early convection before the main line pushes through. A few nasty updrafts are embedded in the line.
https://m2o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2023030200/028/uh03_max.us_sc.png
Honestly those are pretty significant UH tracks for a QLCS event, I'm more used to seeing a few pale green streaks in events like this. Also interesting that the strongest UH tracks seem to be over DFW instead of out east into AR where the tornado threat is apparently greatest. Wonder if this will lead the SPC to include immediate DFW in the moderate risk in the next outlook.
On another note, is there something up with the NAM? It has temps in dfw tomorrow evening in the upper 50s ahead of the squall line on the 0z run, and has been showing a way stronger VBV signature in its hodographs than the other models over the last several runs.
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- bubba hotep
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- Category 5
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Re: Texas Spring 2023
cheezyWXguy wrote:bubba hotep wrote:00z HRRR looks tricky tomorrow with storm mode, but there does appear to be a moisture gradient across DFW that focuses some early convection before the main line pushes through. A few nasty updrafts are embedded in the line.
https://m2o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2023030200/028/uh03_max.us_sc.png
Honestly those are pretty significant UH tracks for a QLCS event, I'm more used to seeing a few pale green streaks in events like this. Also interesting that the strongest UH tracks seem to be over DFW instead of out east into AR where the tornado threat is apparently greatest. Wonder if this will lead the SPC to include immediate DFW in the moderate risk in the next outlook.
On another note, is there something up with the NAM? It has temps in dfw tomorrow evening in the upper 50s ahead of the squall line on the 0z run, and has been showing a way stronger VBV signature in its hodographs than the other models over the last several runs.
That one streak down the middle of DFW. Yeesh.
This definitely looked more west-based than I was expecting even with the west shift.
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- Location: Ponder, TX
Re: Texas Spring 2023
bubba hotep wrote:00z HRRR looks tricky tomorrow with storm mode, but there does appear to be a moisture gradient across DFW that focuses some early convection before the main line pushes through. A few nasty updrafts are embedded in the line.
https://m2o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2023030200/028/uh03_max.us_sc.png
What is this showing and what are you saying could happen if this happens?
Seems to be lots of hype building about tomorrow.
I don't recall this as a kid growing up in NTX, then again there was no internet and the weather was on the news and radio so no single run extreme model runs to get worked up over.
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Don't hold me accountable for anything I post on this forum. Leave the real forecasting up to the professionals.
Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)
Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)
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- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 2035
- Joined: Tue Oct 27, 2009 11:17 am
- Location: Ponder, TX
Re: Texas Spring 2023
bubba hotep wrote:00z HRRR looks tricky tomorrow with storm mode, but there does appear to be a moisture gradient across DFW that focuses some early convection before the main line pushes through. A few nasty updrafts are embedded in the line.
https://m2o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2023030200/028/uh03_max.us_sc.png
Maximum updraft helicity is a measure of how much rotation there is in an updraft of a thunderstorm¹. It can indicate a threat for tornadoes but does not explicitly predict them¹. It is calculated by multiplying upward vertical velocity and cyclonic vertical vorticity between 2 and 5 km above ground level¹². The higher the maximum updraft helicity, the more likely there is a strong rotating updraft in a storm³⁴.
Source: Conversation with Bing, 3/1/2023(1) (Sept 2016 - specific HRRR-only fields are now added.). https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/RAP_var_diagnosis.html Accessed 3/1/2023.
(2) Maximum updraft helicity in the Southern Hemisphere. https://forum.mmm.ucar.edu/threads/maxi ... here.9665/ Accessed 3/1/2023.
(3) Models: HRRR — Pivotal Weather. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... pdt=&mc=gs Accessed 3/1/2023.
(4) SPC HREF Ensemble Viewer - 24-hr max 2-5 km updraft helicity, ens max. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/href/?mo ... ctor=conus Accessed 3/1/2023.
(5) Env Parameters and Indices - National Weather Service. https://www.weather.gov/lmk/indices Accessed 3/1/2023.
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Don't hold me accountable for anything I post on this forum. Leave the real forecasting up to the professionals.
Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)
Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)
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