The March ECMWF seasonal is out (and it goes through JAS). It does show El Nino conditions, but basin-wide warmth in the Atlantic. This seems to be a trend in the climate models, if it verifies the basin-wide warmth could cancel out some of the El Nino effects. It shows above-normal pressures in the tropical Atlantic and below-normal precipitation, but nothing that would go as far to say "season cancel." Through the end of September, the ECMWF calls for 90% of normal ACE in the Atlantic, with 10.7 tropical storms and 5.1 hurricanes. In the past, this model significantly underestimated Atlantic activity, but it seems the bias may have been over-corrected, as last year it was way too high with Atlantic activity.
Nino 3.4 plume
SST anomaly
![Image](https://i.imgur.com/jZc3c5G.png)
Precipitation anomaly
![Image](https://i.imgur.com/lU3QMR6.png)
MSLP anomaly tercile
![Image](https://i.imgur.com/inJc119.png)
Atlantic ACE (90% of normal through September - sounds about right since El Nino seasons often end earlier).
![Image](https://i.imgur.com/lubqiI3.png)
Tropical storms (10.7 through the end of September)
![Image](https://i.imgur.com/aEQU9Gg.png)
Hurricanes (5.1 through the end of September)
![Image](https://i.imgur.com/RbRAvxW.png)
NCSU B.S. in Meteorology Class of 2021. Tropical weather blogger at
http://www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.