Texas Winter 2022-2023

[bubba hotep]

Take a look at the MJO! Hope for a Winter into March has not been lost!

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/GEFS.png
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/GEFS.png

I posted a while back that the combo of shifting ENSO, MJO, lag SSW impacts, etc, were going to set the table for a big March. It's nice to a plan come together lol

[Iceresistance]

The weather is going to get crazy in the next couple of weeks, even when we move into the spring thread.

[Gotwood]

March 3rd time frame looks very interesting for some possible winter weather. Ensembles in agreement?

[Ntxw]

March 3rd time frame looks very interesting for some possible winter weather. Ensembles in agreement?

Will it get colder? Probably, but for March. Which isn't terribly cold compared to Jan or Feb. Snow? Maybe in panhandle or Oklahoma, I-20 and south is not common, but can happen. It's about as hopeful as November.

[Iceresistance]

March 3rd time frame looks very interesting for some possible winter weather. Ensembles in agreement?

12z GEFS has a good snowfall signal.

[Gotwood]

March 3rd time frame looks very interesting for some possible winter weather. Ensembles in agreement?

Will it get colder? Probably, but for March. Which isn't terribly cold compared to Jan or Feb. Snow? Maybe in panhandle or Oklahoma, I-20 and south is not common, but can happen. It's about as hopeful as November.

Sounds like you are about ready to head into the spring thread.

[Ntxw]

March 3rd time frame looks very interesting for some possible winter weather. Ensembles in agreement?

Will it get colder? Probably, but for March. Which isn't terribly cold compared to Jan or Feb. Snow? Maybe in panhandle or Oklahoma, I-20 and south is not common, but can happen. It's about as hopeful as November.

Sounds like you are about ready to head into the spring thread.

Just being realistic. Late January and early Feb, despite the discrepancies in upper flow, was actually easier to forecast cold with. The upcoming pattern can yield below normal but that doesn't mean extreme cold. Damp and chilly.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Great feeling day today after the hot weather this week. Overcast and in the low 30s.

[Ntxw]

The Nina is going to collapse. Standing wave will be replaced by sinking air over the MC (Indonesia) as we move toward spring.

[South Texas Storms]

The Nina is going to collapse. Standing wave will be replaced by sinking air over the MC (Indonesia) as we move toward spring.

https://i.imgur.com/qwprwpY.gif

Finally! Should allow us to enter into a hopefully more wet extended period.

[wxman57]

Best of both worlds across Texas today. Low 80s here in Houston and 40s for your northerners up in D-FW. I wouldn't count on any snow up in the D-FW area on March 3-4. Maybe central and northern Oklahoma.

[Ntxw]

This should have happened a month sooner but at least it won't be a warm start to spring. Below normal most likely. NAO has a stronger correlation this time of year than earlier. On cue with onset of El Ninos, warm prior winters making way to a wet/cool spring.

[Itryatgolf]

The gefs and euro ensembles have the wpo/epo going pretty negative. I believe the SSW is having some effect also. Hopefully it happens with enough moisture to have one last hoorah at a winter event. If that indeed pans out, it should get pretty cold around here imo.

[Iceresistance]

It looks like that February 2023 is going to end with a BANG! Literally!


https://s3.gifyu.com/images/spcd2four_panel.us_sc.png

[Brent]

The moderate risk is all the way over to me now I don't think I've ever seen this when its 46 degrees out but clearly the wind potential especially is high end

[wxman57]

The gefs and euro ensembles have the wpo/epo going pretty negative. I believe the SSW is having some effect also. Hopefully it happens with enough moisture to have one last hoorah at a winter event. If that indeed pans out, it should get pretty cold around here imo.

Where is "here"? This forum covers from south Texas to Oklahoma. You can update your profile with a general location.

[Iceresistance]

The gefs and euro ensembles have the wpo/epo going pretty negative. I believe the SSW is having some effect also. Hopefully it happens with enough moisture to have one last hoorah at a winter event. If that indeed pans out, it should get pretty cold around here imo.

Where is "here"? This forum covers from south Texas to Oklahoma. You can update your profile with a general location.

I think he's in Jonesboro, AR

[rwfromkansas]

This talk of derecho in OK reminded me of the KS "inland hurricane" when I was a kid: https://www.weather.gov/ict/inlandhurricane

Very early for this type of storm considering it's February.

[Ntxw]

This talk of derecho in OK reminded me of the KS "inland hurricane" when I was a kid: https://www.weather.gov/ict/inlandhurricane

Very early for this type of storm considering it's February.

It's in the 50s now in Oklahoma and the line is supposed to move through Oklahoma overnight. It is a little early and linear might be the best mode.

[Brent]

This talk of derecho in OK reminded me of the KS "inland hurricane" when I was a kid: https://www.weather.gov/ict/inlandhurricane

Very early for this type of storm considering it's February.

It's in the 50s now in Oklahoma and the line is supposed to move through Oklahoma overnight. It is a little early and linear might be the best mode.

Yeah still only 54 here. Such a weird day for severe weather. Its definitely gonna be a line for most of the state although they are talking about a high end line