#2 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Feb 14, 2023 3:18 pm
ABPW10 PGTW 141730
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/141730Z-150600ZFEB2023//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.2N
133.9E, APPROXIMATELY 134 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A BROAD CIRCULATION
WITH RAGGED ILL-DEFINED CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 141259Z ASCAT METOP-B
BULLSEYE SHOWS 15-20 KNOT WIND FIELDS ON THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
EDGES OF 99W WITH SPOTTY AREAS OF 25KTS MAINLY ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE AREA TO BE UNFAVORABLE FOR 99W TO
DEVELOP DUE TO THE HIGH (30-50KT) VWS AND NO UPPER LEVEL EXHAUST
SYSTEM ESTABLISHED, BUT THERE IS STILL HOPE HELD WITHIN THE WARM (28-
29C) SSTS AND STRONG VORTICITY SIGNATURES ON THE 850MB CHART. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 99W WILL CONTINUE ON A NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLY TRACK OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS TOWARDS THE PHILIPPINES AND
STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP INTO A MEANINGFUL SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS LOW.
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