Texas Winter 2022-2023

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orangeblood
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6281 Postby orangeblood » Tue Feb 14, 2023 9:47 am

Mid-Week next week is still looking really interesting...models have several parts in the Polar and Sub-Trop Jets to piece together over the next several days. Several now showing the potential for next week...

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6282 Postby EnnisTx » Tue Feb 14, 2023 9:52 am

wxman57 wrote:My azaleas are blooming. You know what that means...


They will look really bad when it freezes?….. :P
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6283 Postby cstrunk » Tue Feb 14, 2023 10:12 am

wxman57 wrote:My azaleas are blooming. You know what that means...


You'll soon have flowers?
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6284 Postby rwfromkansas » Tue Feb 14, 2023 10:14 am

At least the models showing something next week tend to be more snow-focused than ice.

But YIKES on that March ridge. Good grief.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6285 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Feb 14, 2023 10:24 am

rwfromkansas wrote:At least the models showing something next week tend to be more snow-focused than ice.

But YIKES on that March ridge. Good grief.

Does that mean the March Ridge is going to promote Severe Weather in that month?
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6286 Postby rwfromkansas » Tue Feb 14, 2023 10:33 am

Iceresistance wrote:
rwfromkansas wrote:At least the models showing something next week tend to be more snow-focused than ice.

But YIKES on that March ridge. Good grief.

Does that mean the March Ridge is going to promote Severe Weather in that month?


The one posted here is right over the central US, so not sure.

May just be a brief issue.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6287 Postby EnnisTx » Tue Feb 14, 2023 10:43 am

The wind is crazy here near Albany Texas. Getting sustained winds of 35-40 and measured a 10 second gust of 66mph.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6288 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Feb 14, 2023 10:56 am

EnnisTx wrote:The wind is crazy here near Albany Texas. Getting sustained winds of 35-40 and measured a 10 second gust of 66mph.

It's only picking up at my location now the rain is gone.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6289 Postby orangeblood » Tue Feb 14, 2023 11:45 am

1067 HP in Yukon on latest GFS Op for next week...likely has no clue what to do with it from there but pretty extreme/eye catching for this model

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6290 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Feb 14, 2023 11:53 am

orangeblood wrote:1067 HP in Yukon on latest GFS Op for next week...likely has no clue what to do with it from there but pretty extreme/eye catching for this model

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/namer/mslp_anom/1676376000/1677056400-aXB4IU6oMNc.png

The Northern Plains becomes a snow glacier, the SE Ridge is too strong for it to come here by moving it into Texas, for now.

The SE Ridge literally becomes the "Anti-Winter Cockroach Ridge," and the only way to prevent that is if it becomes poleward as the ECR.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6291 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Tue Feb 14, 2023 12:07 pm

wxman57 wrote:My azaleas are blooming. You know what that means...


So were mine before February 21….

It means nothing.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6292 Postby rwfromkansas » Tue Feb 14, 2023 12:38 pm

Wow, for our suburban homes 5 feet apart it's really windy back at my house. My wife said the trash can blew over.

Looks like it's about 30 mph on my weather station that's not very high which probably means 50 gusts at times.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6293 Postby Ntxw » Tue Feb 14, 2023 12:51 pm

1050-1060mb Arctic high showing up on all the guidance. How far south can it deliver? All will depend on cyclogenesis to our north. If it does it will sweep the cold with it northeastward.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6294 Postby wxman57 » Tue Feb 14, 2023 1:47 pm

ThunderSleetDreams wrote:
wxman57 wrote:My azaleas are blooming. You know what that means...


So were mine before February 21….

It means nothing.


My azaleas may be smarter than yours. They know the worst of winter has passed. ;-) The thing to watch for is when the pecan trees leaf out. Pecan trees are the smartest of all plants/trees. When they begin to leaf out, winter is over. Meanwhile, it's a pleasant 77 degrees (and rising) here in SW Houston.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6295 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Feb 14, 2023 2:30 pm

Hollis, OK just recorded a gust of 59

Panhandle Texas could have a gust of 80 mph earlier today.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6296 Postby Texas Snowman » Tue Feb 14, 2023 2:59 pm

Ntxw wrote:1050-1060mb Arctic high showing up on all the guidance. How far south can it deliver? All will depend on cyclogenesis to our north. If it does it will sweep the cold with it northeastward.


You and Larry Cosgrove must be talking! :D

 https://twitter.com/larrycosgrove/status/1625503643318521857


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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6297 Postby rwfromkansas » Tue Feb 14, 2023 3:00 pm

3-6 inches expected for my hometown and much of Kansas. Hope that’s a good sign for a more snow pattern in the future. Some of western KS finally getting good snow this winter.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6298 Postby HockeyTx82 » Tue Feb 14, 2023 3:19 pm

Texas Snowman wrote:
Ntxw wrote:1050-1060mb Arctic high showing up on all the guidance. How far south can it deliver? All will depend on cyclogenesis to our north. If it does it will sweep the cold with it northeastward.


You and Larry Cosgrove must be talking! :D

https://twitter.com/larrycosgrove/status/1625503643318521857?s=46&t=7k6BDbZXBtihC7K8-3wzEQ


Or maybe this is Larry Cosgrove’s alter ego......
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6299 Postby Texas Snowman » Tue Feb 14, 2023 3:53 pm

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6300 Postby wxman57 » Tue Feb 14, 2023 4:20 pm

Yeah, SE TX has a history of snowfall around Valentine's day. Big ice storm of 2021 hit right about now. However, my thermometer says 80 degrees, so I think snow is unlikely to harm my azaleas today.
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