Texas Winter 2022-2023

[Cpv17]

Meanwhile the GEFS keeps trending colder early next week despite the operational struggles.

Hmmm..where have we heard this before?

Broken record it feels like.

[Cerlin]

Meanwhile the GEFS keeps trending colder early next week despite the operational struggles.

Hmmm..where have we heard this before?

Broken record it feels like.

If there’s any record I’d want to repeat, it’s one with colder than average!

[rwfromkansas]

I guess I meant it looked like the setup was better for long-term cold a few days ago. Maybe that was wrong.

[Cpv17]

I guess I meant it looked like the setup was better for long-term cold a few days ago. Maybe that was wrong.

Yep, I feel the same way. I thought it looked much more promising a few days ago. Now it just looks meh. I’ll admit though, I haven’t really looked at the models much. Just going by what I’m seeing on here. Maybe the ensembles still look the same as they did a few days ago. I haven’t even looked at the temperature anomalies on the models, just the 500 MB flow on the 12z GEFS earlier.

[bubba hotep]

00z 12k NAM is a bit warmer at 06z on Monday, which was hour 84 on the 18z run.

[Brent]

The TWC app is snowy here so far for the most part... Hopefully that holds up. Still seeing a lot of concern about ice

[DonWrk]

0z CMC anybody?

[orangeblood]

0z CMC anybody?

Getting more severe and now further south…GFS still looks lost

[txtwister78]

I'll say this about the CMC and its Ensemble...it definitely has been the most consistent/locked in with the arctic air/freezing precip signal. While an outlier for now, the problem is if it's right, a good chunk of the state is going experience some severe icing next week.

The NBM (albeit lighter amounts of course at this range) is still showing a similar threat in coverage.

[Iceresistance]

Uh oh


https://s3.gifyu.com/images/image30867a17d724bc135.png

[Gotwood]

Uh oh

https://s3.gifyu.com/images/image30867a17d724bc135.png
https://s3.gifyu.com/images/image30867a17d724bc135.png

I’m curious to see temperature forecasts come Sunday. Especially towards DFW.

[WinterMax]

Uh oh

https://s3.gifyu.com/images/image30867a17d724bc135.png
https://s3.gifyu.com/images/image30867a17d724bc135.png

I’m curious to see temperature forecasts come Sunday. Especially towards DFW.

Amazing to see GFS operational spitting in the face of what looked to be a sure icy mess for such a large swath. And it almost completely disappears in their opinion. I’m almost inclined to believe their nothing burger is correct.

[WacoWx]

Due to the silence around here and social media, i am inclined to think you are correct. The subfreezing air just isn't going to be in place.

[orangeblood]

The saving grace from a Severe Ice storm maybe the 700-850mb warm layer...even on the cold CMC it's pushing 40F plus. Tough to get much accumulating ice falling thru a layer that warm! Still could be an icy mess but power line type issues seem low at the current time and CMC ice accumulation map seem overdone!

[wxman57]

Setup looks nothing like the pre-Christmas event. Even the too-cold Canadian doesn't bring any sub-freezing air to SE TX. Looks like a "normal" mid-winter cold front. I don't believe the Canadian's "ice-mageddon" for a second.

[rwfromkansas]

Well, there goes another one. Winter is rapidly ending. However, I would rather have rain than a crippling ice storm.

[DonWrk]

Are we seriously throwing in the towel after all the hype for this one? I’m inclined to think this is a tad premature but who knows.

[Ntxw]

Are we seriously throwing in the towel after all the hype for this one? I’m inclined to think this is a tad premature but who knows.

Would be unwise to say something is done when it hasn't happened yet.

We've had the cold, we've had a little snow. Any freezing rain prospect is just not that exciting to some.

[rwfromkansas]

I'm really hoping I guess because I just do not want something so bad as that.

It still may happen. Models often back off and then bring things back.

[DonWrk]

Are we seriously throwing in the towel after all the hype for this one? I’m inclined to think this is a tad premature but who knows.

Would be unwise to say something is done when it hasn't happened yet.

We've had the cold, we've had a little snow. Any freezing rain prospect is just not that exciting to some.

Not necessarily exciting in terms of wanting it to happen but more like preparing for a big game. When you’ve got 60 heifers having their first calves and you know you’ll be out in it trying to save lives and help them out you kinda get this adrenaline rush sort of thing if that makes sense lol.