Texas Winter 2022-2023

[txtwister78]

Medium-long range the 0z Euro didn't look as bad as yesterday's 12z. Still questions, but I would still lean on some kind of cold dump for a period. Believe the cold air mass will overwhelm the flow.

As do I. I think the cold builds, but we see arctic air intrusions that are shallower in nature. Have to account for SE ridge influence, but if you put that much into the pattern, the threat is there for the dam to break. Interesting times ahead.

[TropicalTundra]

What the heck!? It's snowing at my area!

Some precip bands still in Oklahoma. Hi-res Models predicted it last night. Some flurries over the OKC metro too.

[Ntxw]

Medium-long range the 0z Euro didn't look as bad as yesterday's 12z. Still questions, but I would still lean on some kind of cold dump for a period. Believe the cold air mass will overwhelm the flow.

As do I. I think the cold builds, but we see arctic air intrusions that are shallower in nature. Have to account for SE ridge influence, but if you put that much into the pattern, the threat is there for the dam to break. Interesting times ahead.

This is what the analog sets have been suggesting. TPV lobe is well displaced, being on one side is very cold, other is mild. But past experiences tells us to expect cold to be many of miles south from where the models tries to hold it up.

[Ntxw]

All of the OP guidance put a 1055+ HP in NW Canada end of this week.

[Iceresistance]

GFS has the SE Ridge consistent, it's closer to being as the ECR. It would be nice for it to be more poleward for us to get more snow though.

[Iceresistance]

Someone in Northern DFW is going to get the DFW Snowfall Jackpot


https://s9.gifyu.com/images/12z-GEFS.png

[Ntxw]

GFS hourly has a very intense band of snow roughly from the metroplex and north (areas along the Red River as well) Tuesday late afternoon to evening. This would be anywhere from 4-8pm. SE and E Oklahoma plastered.

[Iceresistance]

GFS hourly has a very intense band of snow roughly from the metroplex and north (areas along the Red River as well) Tuesday late afternoon to evening. This would be anywhere from 4-8pm. SE and E Oklahoma plastered.

Like how intense? 3-4 inches per hour?

[Ntxw]

GFS hourly has a very intense band of snow roughly from the metroplex and north (areas along the Red River as well) Tuesday late afternoon to evening. This would be anywhere from 4-8pm. SE and E Oklahoma plastered.

Like how intense? 3-4 inches per hour?

Could be 2-3" an hour but a lot of it will melt due to warm surface temperatures.

[Iceresistance]

GFS hourly has a very intense band of snow roughly from the metroplex and north (areas along the Red River as well) Tuesday late afternoon to evening. This would be anywhere from 4-8pm. SE and E Oklahoma plastered.

Like how intense? 3-4 inches per hour?

Could be 2-3" an hour but a lot of it will melt due to warm surface temperatures.

OK Mesonet has the ground temperatures in the 40s, but when it gets down into the 20s overnight, there is going to be a lot of ice problems.

[JayDT]

Someone in Northern DFW is going to get the DFW Snowfall Jackpot

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/12z-GEFS.png
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/12z-GEFS.png

If that would shift another 50-100 miles south I would be very happy

[rwfromkansas]

It’s times like this I am glad I’m along 35W and north of 820 in Tarrant. NW Tarrant will get the most for Tarrant/Dallas counties. GEFS would give me 2.5-4. Hard to see exactly what color I’m in, but definitely more than 2. I think I’m barely in the 3 zone. Hope it shifts a bit south because a lot of that will melt. But, any flakes are fine so long as we get some cold before the next system.

[Iceresistance]

It’s times like this I am glad I’m along 35W and north of 820 in Tarrant. NW Tarrant will get the most for Tarrant/Dallas counties. GEFS would give me 2.5-4. Hard to see exactly what color I’m in, but definitely more than 2. I think I’m barely in the 3 zone.

The GEFS is the 10:1 ratio, the ratios are between 2:1 and 5:1 in Texas, while I'm at 7:1 to 8:1.

[rwfromkansas]

It’s times like this I am glad I’m along 35W and north of 820 in Tarrant. NW Tarrant will get the most for Tarrant/Dallas counties. GEFS would give me 2.5-4. Hard to see exactly what color I’m in, but definitely more than 2. I think I’m barely in the 3 zone.

The GEFS is the 10:1 ratio, the ratios are between 2:1 and 5:1 in Texas, while I'm at 7:1 to 8:1.

I’m sure half of it would melt as it falls here.

[Ntxw]

It’s times like this I am glad I’m along 35W and north of 820 in Tarrant. NW Tarrant will get the most for Tarrant/Dallas counties. GEFS would give me 2.5-4. Hard to see exactly what color I’m in, but definitely more than 2. I think I’m barely in the 3 zone.

The GEFS is the 10:1 ratio, the ratios are between 2:1 and 5:1 in Texas, while I'm at 7:1 to 8:1.

I’m sure half of it would melt as it falls here.

Snow depth is a better indicator for what sticks. Even for most of Oklahoma is just an inch or two from the GFS. Us less than 1". Assuming it is correct, but for a short time will look dramatic in the air with heavy qpf cottonballs.

[gpsnowman]

It’s times like this I am glad I’m along 35W and north of 820 in Tarrant. NW Tarrant will get the most for Tarrant/Dallas counties. GEFS would give me 2.5-4. Hard to see exactly what color I’m in, but definitely more than 2. I think I’m barely in the 3 zone. Hope it shifts a bit south because a lot of that will melt. But, any flakes are fine so long as we get some cold before the next system.

Same here. I think I am in the 2 or 3 inch zone. Most will melt but I bet some folks in DFW witness some really heavy snow regardless of accumulations. Will be pretty to see huge wet flakes flying around.

[Ntxw]

Sliding down the Great Basin between Nevada and Utah. There's a Herbert Box in the Atlantic for South Florida. For us a S/SE diving system through the Great Basin are always of great interest in the southern plains.

[Ntxw]

Quite interesting that the Euro has trended away from sending the trough out into the Pacific Ocean. Today's run is more western/southwest trough which would help open up the floodgates like the others. So yesterday's run could've been a one off fluke.

[rwfromkansas]

West Central KS had nice snow yesterday 7-11 inches. My hometown got 3.5 along 35.

[harp]

Quite interesting that the Euro has trended away from sending the trough out into the Pacific Ocean. Today's run is more western/southwest trough which would help open up the floodgates like the others. So yesterday's run could've been a one off fluke.

Am I interpreting this to mean more cold air for Texas and Louisiana? Thanks.