AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 24.5S
177.8E, APPROXIMATELY 384 NM SOUTH OF SUVA, FIJI. REANALYSIS OF
OVERNIGHT MICROWAVE AND SCATTEROMETER DATA SUGGESTS THAT INVEST 95P
MAY HAVE BRIEFLY REACHED 35 KNOTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A SMAP
PASS FROM 080642Z SHOWED A SMALL PATCH OF GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION AND A LATER 080734Z GPM 37GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTED A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. HOWEVER, SUBSEQUENT
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) IMAGERY SHOWED THE SYSTEM BECOMING
INCREASINGLY DISORGANIZED DUE TO MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR. HOWEVER,
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS UP TO THE PRESENT TIME, THE SYSTEM HAS
MOVED INTO AN AREA OF LOWER SHEAR, WITH THE CIMSS ANALYSIS INDICATING
LESS THAN 15 KNOTS OF SHEAR OVER TOP OF THE SYSTEM AT 081500Z. BY
081700Z, AS WE APPROACH THE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM, A SYMMETRICAL
BLOOM OF CONVECTION HAS ONCE MORE FIRED UP OVER THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY FIXES REMAIN AT
T1.0 (25 KNOTS) BUT ARE NOT LIKELY HANDLING THE SYSTEM WELL DUE TO ITS
SMALL SIZE. GLOBAL MODELS ARE ALSO STRUGGLING WITH DEPICTING 95P AND
ARE NOT PICKING UP ON THE STRONGER WIND FIELD AS INDICATED BY THE
SCATTEROMETER AND SMAP. OVERALL, MODELS ARE MOVING THE SYSTEM OFF TO
THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND IT IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY MERGE INTO A LARGE
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM THAT WILL DEVELOP FROM THE REMNANTS OF TC 07P TO
THE WEST. HOWEVER, THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING ANY
INTENSIFICATION, WHICH IS CLEARLY OCCURRING. THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO
FLIRT WITH THE 35 KNOT WARNING THRESHOLD AT VARIOUS TIMES OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO, ESPECIALLY NEAR DIURNAL MAXIMUM, BEFORE IT MOVES OVER
COOLER WATERS AND MERGES WITH THE DEVELOPING EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM TO
THE SOUTH, BUT IS UNLIKELY TO BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN THIS INTENSITY FOR
MORE THAN A FEW HOURS AT A TIME MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
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