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THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.1S 142.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.7S 144.9E, APPROXIMATELY 122 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ENHANCED INFARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ORGANIZING AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY OVER LAND, MODERATE OUTFLOW ALOFT AND LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT ONCE THE SYSTEM EMERGES OVER WATER. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93P WILL TRACK EASTWARD AND EMERGE OVER THE CORAL SEA WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
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WTPS21 PGTW 061400 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93P)// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 19.7S 151.1E TO 22.2S 155.4E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 061130Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 19.9S 151.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 20 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.9S 149.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.9S 151.4, APPROXIMATELY 308 NM NORTHWEST OF CATO ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS BROAD, FRAGMENTED BUT CONSOLIDATING CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING INTO THE LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) THAT IS EMBEDDED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT 93P IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (28C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE OFFSET BY MEDIUM TO HIGH (20-25KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93P WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 995 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A4 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 080134 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE HALE [HAY-ILL] CENTRE 994HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.7S 166.0E AT 080000 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HIMMAWARI VIS/EIR AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 40 KNOTS.
DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT OVER LLCC. ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD BUT COOLER SST AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT IN THE SOUTHWEST IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM LIES TO THE SOUTH OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 27 DEGREES CELSIUS. DEPRESSION IS STEERED TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST BY THE STR LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. DVORAK ANALYSIS IS BASED ON CURVED PATTERN WITH ABOUT 0.6 ON LOG 10 SPIRAL. DT=3.0, MET = 3.0 AND PT = 3.0. FT BASED ON MET. THUS, YIELDING T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS.
FORECASTS : AT 12 HRS VALID AT 081200 UTC 26.4S 170.5E MOV ESE AT 22 KT WITH 40 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 24 HRS VALID AT 090000 UTC 28.2S 175.0E MOV ESE AT 22 KT WITH 35 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK : AT 36 HRS VALID AT 091200 UTC 31.1S 178.4E MOV ESE AT 21 KT WITH 30 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 48 HRS VALID AT 100000 UTC 34.4S 179.5E MOV SE AT 19 KT WITH 30 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
THIS WILL BE THE FINAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON HALE [HAY-ILL].