Texas Winter 2022-2023

[Iceresistance]

Mike Morgan recently said that there are going to be wind gusts up to 70 mph when this front arrives, I doubt that high, but it's going to be really windy for sure!

[orangeblood]

Overnight runs continue the story of a run-of-the-mill winter cold front. Nothing special. While it is not uncommon for models to lose the cold air in this time frame, they don't usually drive the front through at all. This is not February, with very cold ground temperatures. The cold air will be flowing over much warmer ground than it would in February. Temps on the meteograms don't look too bad, to me. Wouldn't rule out 5-10 deg colder, but I wouldn't forecast that, either.

"Strongest front I've ever seen"?? Was Mike Morgan born last month?

http://wxman57.com/images/IAHGFS6ZDec15.JPG

http://wxman57.com/images/DFWGFS6ZDec15.JPG

Well, you are using the warmest model of the bunch. The one that’s way too progressive.

I don't have the high-res data for other models. Link is below. I may start up my spreadsheet to track model forecasts like I did with the last few freezes. I won't have data every 3 hours, and I can only pick certain points off the Pivotal Weather maps, but it would be something to compare.

Euro has temps down to the teens in the D-FW area and around 20 in Houston. Canadian is similar to the GFS. Canadian was too cold last February. Cold, but not extreme and not very uncommon.

https://www.ready.noaa.gov/READYcmetus.php

Here is a good feature they keep on Weatherbell, depicting multi run forecasts over time. Great tool for trend following!

Euro Op

GFS Op

[orangeblood]

Another note, the snowpack up north continues to build. Many areas now have a snow depth of 8-20" with another 4-12" expected to fall. We're going to see a widespread snowdepth from Montana to Wisconsin of 4-30" and it's not going to melt. Models will definitely be playing catchup with how fast the cold comes.

No doubt...it's about as favorable of a setup as you'll find for Cold over performance- massive Arctic HP over deep snow pack during the winter solstice. I would not bet the OVER with this one!

[Texas Snow]

Here is a good feature they keep on Weatherbell, depicting multi run forecasts over time. Great tool for trend following!

That's awesome. I wish I would have known that in Feb 21, I kept my own spreadsheet.

I used to have WeatherBell but for me it was a bit unorganized and never could find cool stuff like this. Maybe that was just me. Thanks for sharing.aybe that was just me. Thanks for sharing.

[Iceresistance]

Did someone already post this?

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1603141089178882053

[DallasAg]

I have no doubt about the cold. Even a glancing blow will be plenty cold. Want to see a disturbance sneak in. Will not need much qpf to generate decent snow cover.

Exactly what happened New Years Eve 2000, sneaky system came down out of the NW flow with very little moisture to work with...ended up producing a wide swath of 1-3 inches across North Texas into N. Louisiana

Best Analog by far

https://psl.noaa.gov/tmp/narr/45.17.124.164.348.6.44.20.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/namer/z500_anom/1671084000/1671872400-C1h2pNiR4Lw.png

I was at the snow bowl in Shreveport on NYE between MSU and A&M. Solid 6 inches and blizzard like

Same. When we pulled out of Dallas on the 29th to leave for Shreveport I remember Brad Barton on KRLD warning that this one might be a bit sneaky and that ground temps were cold enough that anything that falls would accumulate quickly. I blew it off entirely and packed only a light jacket and baseball cap for the game. Thankfully the folks sitting behind us had a huge tarp that at least kept most of the snow off us. Good times, the outcome of the game notwithstanding. The drive home the next morning was a different story. I-20 was a mess.

[gpsnowman]

The latest from Larry Cosgrove

The large storm that triggered severe weather has set in motion the potential for widespread extreme cold and a possible pre-Christmas major snow and ice event for the Midwest and the Northeast.

As I had feared, the combination of high-latitude blocking (Alaska and Baffin Island) 500MB Arctic vortex (Great Lakes) and shortwaves from the eastern Pacific Basin could make for a very rough go across the eastern 2/3 of the continent next week. The cold air now in play in the USA is minor league (cPk) compared to what will be forced into the Great Plains in about five days. The cAk regime starts out in the Yukon Territory, and by December 22 will be reaching the Rio Grande Valley.

But it is the combined energy from three jet streams (Arctic, polar, and subtropical) over the Dixie states a week from today that is my main concern. If all of these systems phase properly, the system emerging over the Gulf Coast will undergo rapid deepening near Cape Hatteras NC. All three of the main operational models make a very big deal of this system, taking the center toward the Gulf of Maine on December 23 - 24. It is impossible this early to outline rain vs. ice vs. snow delineations. But wind will be a big problem from the Mississippi Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and New England. And in those unlucky enough to be caught in the cold sector of this cyclone, accumulations of the white stuff and profound drifting are possible.

Watch this system. Things could get really ugly before Christmas. And beyond, as there are strong hints at another winter storm (or two) before and after New Year's Day.

[gpsnowman]

Still waiting on Steve McCauley to make a post regarding the pattern change. He is usually reliable but likes to wait until things come together before making any predictions. He has been one my favorites since he started on WFAA Dallas over 20 years ago.

[opticsguy]

I thought I'd post this since we're talking about the GFS 1 week out.

[wxman57]

I plotted all available models & ensembles for downtown Houston. GFS is definitely warmest. Euro is coldest, probably too cold. Nowhere close to big freezes of the past. Still no very cold air up north and no big high pressure. Just a model forecast way out in fantasy land.

[rwfromkansas]

Another note, the snowpack up north continues to build. Many areas now have a snow depth of 8-20" with another 4-12" expected to fall. We're going to see a widespread snowdepth from Montana to Wisconsin of 4-30" and it's not going to melt. Models will definitely be playing catchup with how fast the cold comes.

Just like Dec. 2000 growing up in McPherson, KS. Little snow here and there that added up and never melted.

If we can get a good snowpack from NE on north, that will help a lot. And, it's already started.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I plotted all available models & ensembles for downtown Houston. GFS is definitely warmest. Euro is coldest, probably too cold. Nowhere close to big freezes of the past. Still no very cold air up north and no big high pressure. Just a model forecast way out in fantasy land.

http://wxman57.com/images/Models6Z15.JPG

It’s coming. Get ready!

[Iceresistance]

WPC is expecting 1060+ mb HPs in Alaska in 4 days.


https://s9.gifyu.com/images/ak_d4wbg_crop.gif

[wxman57]

I plotted all available models & ensembles for downtown Houston. GFS is definitely warmest. Euro is coldest, probably too cold. Nowhere close to big freezes of the past. Still no very cold air up north and no big high pressure. Just a model forecast way out in fantasy land.

http://wxman57.com/images/Models6Z15.JPG

It’s coming. Get ready!

Perhaps it won't reach 80 on Christmas. I'll concede that a freeze appears likely for Houston. No 1983, 1989, or 2021, though. Nothing extreme.

[orangeblood]

I plotted all available models & ensembles for downtown Houston. GFS is definitely warmest. Euro is coldest, probably too cold. Nowhere close to big freezes of the past. Still no very cold air up north and no big high pressure. Just a model forecast way out in fantasy land.

http://wxman57.com/images/Models6Z15.JPG

It’s coming. Get ready!

Perhaps it won't reach 80 on Christmas. I'll concede that a freeze appears likely for Houston. No 1983, 1989, or 2021, though. Nothing extreme.

All the makings of Houston getting into the teens with this one....pretty extreme for down there

[orangeblood]

The Euro Op Temperature drop is a sight to behold Thursday morning

Midnight 12/22


6 am 12/22


Noon 12/22

[South Texas Storms]

It’s coming. Get ready!

Perhaps it won't reach 80 on Christmas. I'll concede that a freeze appears likely for Houston. No 1983, 1989, or 2021, though. Nothing extreme.

All the makings of Houston getting into the teens with this one....pretty extreme for down there

If I had to make a forecast for Houston now, I would say the city bottoms out in the low 20s for the coldest temp during this upcoming cold event. Not as cold as last February, but still pretty dang cold, especially for the Gulf Coast.

[Ntxw]

The Euro Op Temperature drop is a sight to behold Thursday morning

Midnight 12/22
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/scentus/t2m_f/1671062400/1671688800-3aJGxEP904g.png

6 am 12/22
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/scentus/t2m_f/1671062400/1671710400-xDnguQqTHaA.png

Noon 12/22
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/scentus/t2m_f/1671062400/1671732000-J3r5etEXlrI.png

I can see -30s departures on this one (-20s departures to the south). We have a shot at single digits should skies clear.

[wxman57]

All the makings of Houston getting into the teens with this one....pretty extreme for down there

Teens aren't impossible, but that isn't so rare. Happens every few years or so. Nothing close to the single digits and 5 days below freezing of 1983 or 1989. Better to get rid of that cold air in Canada quickly so that we can have a nice, warm January.

[Iceresistance]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1603405160834912261