Texas Winter 2022-2023

[WinterMax]

What a difference less than a day makes in the model runs. Is the 6Z run correct? GFS says "NO COLD FOR YOU!" Probably not. With every Arctic outbreak in the past, going back to 1983 when I was a young forecaster, the models were clueless until 24-48 hours before the cold arrived. First, the prediction of cold air building in the Yukon and Northern Territories has to happen. That's what you need to watch for.

http://wxman57.com/images/IAHGFS6ZDec14.JPG

http://wxman57.com/images/DFWGFS6zDec14.JPG

http://wxman57.com/images/AUSGFS6ZDec14.JPG

“Monitor the source region” simple, yet effective.

[orangeblood]

IMO at this point, I don't believe there is really debate about the Source Region getting cold (NW Canada). All models have that showing up in less than 3 days. It's the upper level pattern evolution and the subsequent downstream implications that is up for debate. The trends overnight were definitely in the very cold (not extreme) and drier camp but still too early to call, we're still in the "model wobble" period for late next week.

[wxman57]

IMO at this point, I don't believe there is really debate about the Source Region getting cold (NW Canada). All models have that showing up in less than 3 days. It's the upper level pattern evolution and the subsequent downstream implications that is up for debate. The trends overnight were definitely in the very cold (not extreme) and drier camp but still too early to call, we're still in the "model wobble" period for late next week.

I would say that it is quite uncertain just how cold the air up there may get. Will it be -15F to -25F or -35F to -45F? Big difference down here.

[TropicalTundra]

Regardless of what happens, i'm at least happy Christmas Eve and Day are most likely going to be cold. It just doesn't feel right when it's warm. Hopefully this pattern stays for a good while

[TropicalTundra]

IMO at this point, I don't believe there is really debate about the Source Region getting cold (NW Canada). All models have that showing up in less than 3 days. It's the upper level pattern evolution and the subsequent downstream implications that is up for debate. The trends overnight were definitely in the very cold (not extreme) and drier camp but still too early to call, we're still in the "model wobble" period for late next week.

I would say that it is quite uncertain just how cold the air up there may get. Will it be -15F to -25F or -35F to -45F? Big difference down here.

Some people are saying Siberian air will be funneling cold with it moving over to far north Canada. Then high pressures and ridging force it straight down toward us. I don't know if that's right since i'm clueless on most of this stuff but if it's true that will most likely bring some great cold for a decent while

[HockeyTx82]

It was fun while it lasted. See you all in the Spring 23 thread.

[rwfromkansas]

I appreciate skepticism. Record cold is record for a reason. But, at the same time, I also think we need to look at consistency. Everything pointed to a cold pattern, though how cold was in question. When models consistently show one thing, pay attention.

I will not lose my mind over a run or even a day of runs.

When it shows something different, it's an outlier until it has consistency. To me, that requires several more days, at least. Then I may join the wailing and gnashing of teeth. I certainly did in 2021 before it ended up fine. Thankfully we never lost power here.

[Iceresistance]

The 0z EPS has actually trended colder compared to the 0z Euro because the model has slowed the cold wave down.

[Edwards Limestone]

My heart sank when I logged on here this morning...ugh.

[South Texas Storms]

My heart sank when I logged on here this morning...ugh.

No need to give up hope yet. It's still likely going to get quite cold...I would be surprised if SA didn't see at least a freeze from this event. Unfortunately it still looks more likely that not much moisture will accompany the cold temps.

[Iceresistance]

My heart sank when I logged on here this morning...ugh.

Well, I knew that the models were going to try to make us think that the cold is not going to come. Just wait 1-4 days and the models are back in action!

[orangeblood]

The 0z EPS has actually trended colder compared to the 0z Euro because the model has slowed the cold wave down.

Yes, Cold still looks well below normal but that Ridge off Northern California is currently not in a very favorable spot for winter weather around here...embedded NW flow system maybe but not the robust ULL types

[Edwards Limestone]

My heart sank when I logged on here this morning...ugh.

No need to give up hope yet. It's still likely going to get quite cold...I would be surprised if SA didn't see at least a freeze from this event. Unfortunately it still looks more likely that not much moisture will accompany the cold temps.

Good point. EWX is forecasting a light frost/freeze tonight for my area so at least there's that.

We need the moisture in a bad way down here, still ongoing extreme drought in Comal County.

[ATXAG95]

Y'all haven't been getting all this rain like we have in Austin? Seems like it's rained every day since November

[wxman57]

For reference, I saved a forecast from last February's freeze. The forecast was the 12Z Wednesday, February 2nd run. Large blue dots are actual highs/lows. This is within 2 days of the cold arriving, and models still could not agree on temps. Looks like for that one particular event, the Canadian & Euro were closest on the lows. Just 3 days out (Saturday), all models were WAY too cold for Saturday's high. We don't know which model will do best next week. All three models have undergone changes since last February. Moral of the story is that we need to wait another week before we start having a clue about the weather at Christmas.

[orangeblood]

Late December 2000 looks like one of the better Analogs at this point!!!

[Edwards Limestone]

Y'all haven't been getting all this rain like we have in Austin? Seems like it's rained every day since November

Very little improvement for my local area in the past few months. Always north, south, or east of us.

[Iceresistance]

Y'all haven't been getting all this rain like we have in Austin? Seems like it's rained every day since November

Very little improvement for my local area in the past few months. Always north, south, or east of us.
https://www.tceq.texas.gov/downloads/response/images/drought-map.jpg

Goodness, you can really see the San Antonio Force Field.

[WinterMax]

IMO at this point, I don't believe there is really debate about the Source Region getting cold (NW Canada). All models have that showing up in less than 3 days. It's the upper level pattern evolution and the subsequent downstream implications that is up for debate. The trends overnight were definitely in the very cold (not extreme) and drier camp but still too early to call, we're still in the "model wobble" period for late next week.

I would say that it is quite uncertain just how cold the air up there may get. Will it be -15F to -25F or -35F to -45F? Big difference down here.

Even in 3 to 5 days those -30 to -40 temps are not forecast but(modeled) in the source region, not even close, so this will be interesting to watch how it unfolds.

[ATXAG95]

Y'all haven't been getting all this rain like we have in Austin? Seems like it's rained every day since November

Very little improvement for my local area in the past few months. Always north, south, or east of us.
https://www.tceq.texas.gov/downloads/response/images/drought-map.jpg

UGH. That IS ugly. I'm so sorry