Texas Winter 2022-2023

[TheProfessor]

Models are trying to break down the EPO ridge and develop a PNA ridge instead. Problem is that their own teleconnection forecast doesn't support that. A slightly positive PNA won't override a strongly negative EPO. On top of that they keep sliding the storm east when you have a 1050+ surface high in Canada. The position of the high east and southeast of the storm acts as a block. The storm can't go east, it has to go south. The models are being stupid right now so don't fret.

[HockeyTx82]

Euro is much warmer...

And so it begins......

[rwfromkansas]

SOI positive now but not a big jump.

I think this happens a lot where models lose it and get it back so not worried unless it’s Friday and still haywire.

Or the ensembles agree tomorrow.

[wxman57]

Ah, the data for my improved wall has made it into the ECMWF & Canadian now. Result is 50s for the Euro on Christmas vs. 20s. A few more bricks and I think I can get the temperature above 70 on Christmas.

Note that there is still no cold air in northern Canada. Temps are above zero throughout the Yukon and Northwest Territories. We need to wait and see what develops up there before we can gain any confidence in what will happen next. Maybe by Sunday. In reality the models won't really have a good grasp on any cold air that develops until 24-48 hours out. That'll be next Wednesday. It's way too early to speculate on how cold it will get. Meanwhile, it's freezing here in Houston this morning - 62 degrees!!

[EnnisTx]

WHERE'S THE MUTE BUTTON? ^^^^^^^^^^

[Portastorm]

Ah, the data for my improved wall has made it into the ECMWF now. Result is 50s on Christmas vs. 20s. A few more bricks and I think I can get the temperature above 70 on Christmas. Note that there is still no cold air in northern Canada. Temps are above zero throughout the Yukon and Northwest Territories. We need to wait and see what develops up there before we can gain any confidence in what will happen next. Maybe by Sunday.

Sir, due to supply chain issues, we are restricting any future purchases of bricks from Wxman 57 LLC. We anticipate our supply being restocked in … oh, say … March 2023.

[Iceresistance]

Oh come on! Now the lowest low is in the 20s next week on the Local TV mets in Oklahoma City!

[Texas Snow]

Oh come on! Now the lowest low is in the 20s next week on the Local TV mets in Oklahoma City!

And that is why it was so irresponsible of them to post what they did that far out before. It seems they are looking for shock value and hope to be the first to report something big. Heck one of them had a winter storm forecast 10 days away. Really?

[jaguars_22]

Well the fun only lasted so long now back to original programming! Wxman was right! Models will probably get warmer instead of cooler… I believe it was just normal model teasing

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Ensembles are still very cold for all models.

Not sure why you guys hand wring like this with Op to Op runs.

It did this in 2021

[Iceresistance]

Ensembles are still very cold for all models.

Not sure why you guys hand wring like this with Op to Op runs.

It did this in 2021

I remember that very well, picks it up in the long range, nearly loses it on the way before locking it in the short range.

[Tireman4]

Oh come on! Now the lowest low is in the 20s next week on the Local TV mets in Oklahoma City!

And that is why it was so irresponsible of them to post what they did that far out before. It seems they are looking for shock value and hope to be the first to report something big. Heck one of them had a winter storm forecast 10 days away. Really?

I agree I would not touch this with a ten foot pole until 5 days out. I agree with Wxman57 on source regions ( I must be insane and I will surely hear about this..lol) and the intensity of the cold. I do agree with the cold air coming. I need to see more trending. Those HPs of 1072 are just off the charts.

[TheProfessor]

It's not worth floating away in the chaotic current of the numerical models. Oftentimes, you just need to take a step back and look at the big picture. Otherwise, you'll drown.

What we know right now is that we're entering a period of a strongly negative EPO while currently the models have a slow trend from -PNA to +PNA. Now, if we were looking at a strong positive trend, I would be more concerned, but it's not even guaranteed we'll make it to +PNA. Models try to flip the PNA way too quickly, especially for La Niña. On top of that the PNA ridge that the models try to establish would be more akin to a strongly positive PNA not one close to Neutral so I'm not buying the ridge being that far east.

[wxman57]

Well the fun only lasted so long now back to original programming! Wxman was right! Models will probably get warmer instead of cooler… I believe it was just normal model teasing

We won't know who was "right" for another two weeks. It's WAY too early to make predictions of extreme cold. As I've always said, monitor the source region. IF the cold develops there, THEN we can start to get more confident in what will happen. To me, the upper-level flow pattern across northern Canada is not one that would typically produce extreme cold up there. I know it's been quite cold in Siberia, but will any of that air be able to make it across into our side of the world? We may know the answer to that by Sunday or Monday. I'll be more concerned about very cold air down here if it develops up north, first. For now, we are telling our clients that there could be a freeze around Christmas.

[cstrunk]

Winter cancel!!

Just kidding. Like others have said... still a longs ways out, models won't have it locked in one way or the other for a while yet.

I also agree that it is very irresponsible for news weather outlets to post 8+ day weather forecasts. They're only trying to get more viewers and increase ratings. But as we all know, forecasts that far out are very inaccurate and it only adds fuel to the public's fire that meteorologists never get it right.

[wxman57]

What a difference less than a day makes in the model runs. Is the 6Z run correct? GFS says "NO COLD FOR YOU!" Probably not. With every Arctic outbreak in the past, going back to 1983 when I was a young forecaster, the models were clueless until 24-48 hours before the cold arrived. First, the prediction of cold air building in the Yukon and Northern Territories has to happen. That's what you need to watch for.

[TheProfessor]

Well the fun only lasted so long now back to original programming! Wxman was right! Models will probably get warmer instead of cooler… I believe it was just normal model teasing

We won't know who was "right" for another two weeks. It's WAY too early to make predictions of extreme cold. As I've always said, monitor the source region. IF the cold develops there, THEN we can start to get more confident in what will happen. To me, the upper-level flow pattern across northern Canada is not one that would typically produce extreme cold up there. I know it's been quite cold in Siberia, but will any of that air be able to make it across into our side of the world? We may know the answer to that by Sunday or Monday. I'll be more concerned about very cold air down here if it develops up north, first. For now, we are telling our clients that there could be a freeze around Christmas.

Siberia will be the source region, so that's where our cold will be coming from. The EPO ridge that is setting up will favor cold air spilling over from there, which will shift the storm track south. Models are breaking that ridge down too quickly, which they love to do at this range.

[CaptinCrunch]

I'm just happy that for the next 10-14 days there are NO highs outside the mid 50s, with most of those days staying in the 40s.

Time to get the fireplace ready again, and it's perfect holiday weather!

[Cpv17]

Ensembles are still very cold for all models.

Not sure why you guys hand wring like this with Op to Op runs.

It did this in 2021

I remember that very well, picks it up in the long range, nearly loses it on the way before locking it in the short range.

They do this every time. I don’t remember a time they haven’t.

[wxman57]

Ensembles are still very cold for all models.

Not sure why you guys hand wring like this with Op to Op runs.

It did this in 2021

I remember that very well, picks it up in the long range, nearly loses it on the way before locking it in the short range.

They do this every time. I don’t remember a time they haven’t.

Quite true! They also do this when no cold air ever arrives. Wait to see if there is any cold air to come south, first.