Texas Winter 2022-2023

[Texas Snowman]

Seems like the 1983 and 1989 outbreaks were quite dry so we should prepare ourselves for something similar. Given that the modeled HP would beat all time lower 48 records from 1983, I'm afraid suppression is in store. Not to worry, this is what January and February are for. Down here in south LA, our most recent snow events have occurred with temps right around the freezing mark. I was a child in 1989 but remember snow flurries, people skating on our neighborhood pond and the excitedness of our water running again after returning home from Christmas day mass (all of our pipes were frozen.) Looking back now, we had nearly 9 consecutive nights of freezing temps before the hammer really dropped before Christmas to take us in the single digits. Makes sense now how multi-acre ponds froze solid then vs only thin ice observed on any ponds here during cold snaps since. The 1980's were truly a different time.

Actually, we had several inches of snow here along the Red River to begin the December 1983 cold blast. I remember vividly having to go to school the next morning for the last day prior to Christmas break and semester tests (I was a senior at Denison High). We had the most epic snowball fights between classes that day. After that, there were a couple of light disturbances that brought some light snow over the next two weeks, but it was mostly dry.

https://twitter.com/lynnburkhead/status/1602836211403456513?s=46&t=NEDYaP8ningzpuOTwZhhsQ

There definitely could be ana-frontal type snows like what happens up north, just not the big systems if it played out that way. But something like that we wouldn't see until up close.

As I remember, we only had a 20-30% chance of light snow and flurries that evening. I had to work and I remember that sometime after dark that evening, it started dumping and had snowed two or three inches and covered the roads within an hour or two. I had never driven in heavy snow like that and my mom was quite worried until I made it home safely that night (no mobile phones back then ).

As that map shows, we ended up with a good snow as did a number of others.

[Quixotic]

Seems like the 1983 and 1989 outbreaks were quite dry so we should prepare ourselves for something similar. Given that the modeled HP would beat all time lower 48 records from 1983, I'm afraid suppression is in store. Not to worry, this is what January and February are for. Down here in south LA, our most recent snow events have occurred with temps right around the freezing mark. I was a child in 1989 but remember snow flurries, people skating on our neighborhood pond and the excitedness of our water running again after returning home from Christmas day mass (all of our pipes were frozen.) Looking back now, we had nearly 9 consecutive nights of freezing temps before the hammer really dropped before Christmas to take us in the single digits. Makes sense now how multi-acre ponds froze solid then vs only thin ice observed on any ponds here during cold snaps since. The 1980's were truly a different time.

Actually, we had several inches of snow here along the Red River to begin the December 1983 cold blast. I remember vividly having to go to school the next morning for the last day prior to Christmas break and semester tests (I was a senior at Denison High). We had the most epic snowball fights between classes that day. After that, there were a couple of light disturbances that brought some light snow over the next two weeks, but it was mostly dry.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fj5rCZTWQAIdXDo?format=jpg&name=900x900

So, I remember it vividly. Had a “chance of flurries” with a stiff north breeze when I went to bed. Woke up to 4” of snow and it remained mostly intact even though it got above freezing the next day albeit cloudy weather. Walked home in the snow from finals. Next morning friends and I walked up to the convenience store and it went from 36 to 22 in about 20 minutes. I remember the wind. It howled. Puddles were ice upon return. That was the last time we saw above freezing for a long time. The perpetual clouds and wind made it feel impossible. My sister built a snowman that was still viable three weeks later. Walked across lakes. Some people drove across lakes. It was up there. Only 77-78 might surpass it. The latter because of the amount of snow events. That winter was two months of snow events. 83 was more like “I’m sweating. Only to see it is 30 outside.

[harp]

I’ll never forget the Lake Effect snows off Pontchatrain in 1989

That was wild.

You were here for that?

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I’ll never forget the Lake Effect snows off Pontchatrain in 1989

That was wild.

You were here for that?

I had family there. We watched the VHS and had pictures of it. They lived in Metairie at the time. My Uncle said it was the most fun thing to see develop on the lakes.

I was 7 living in Longview at the time.

[Cpv17]

Just looked at the 12z EPS and it keeps us cold during the entire run pretty much. Impressive!

[gboudx]

I’ll never forget the Lake Effect snows off Pontchatrain in 1989

That was wild.

You were here for that?

I was 18 and grew up in Harvey. Took me 3 hours to drive home from work. It normally took 20 mins. I remember it going from freezing rain to sleet to snow.

[Cpv17]

6-10 now from the latest CPC. Needless to say...BRRR! Nothing but barbed wire in the way.

https://i.imgur.com/HuMc1xQ.gif

https://i.imgur.com/eKVlFmY.png

Corrected back west a bit from yesterday just like you said it would.

[Iceresistance]

Just looked at the 12z EPS and it keeps us cold during the entire run pretty much. Impressive!

I thought you said that the EPS was getting colder.

This battle is going to be the Euro vs the GFS. Will the Euro gets it's revenge after its absolute flop in February 2021? Or will it's Winter Curse will keep going?

[starsfan65]

Just looked at the 12z EPS and it keeps us cold during the entire run pretty much. Impressive!

I thought you said that the EPS was getting colder.
Curse?
This battle is going to be the Euro vs the GFS. Will the Euro gets it's revenge after its absolute flop in February 2021? Or will it's Winter Curse will keep going?

Winter Curse?

[Texas Snow]

I’ll never forget the Lake Effect snows off Pontchatrain in 1989

That was wild.

You were here for that?

I had family there. We watched the VHS and had pictures of it. They lived in Metairie at the time. My Uncle said it was the most fun thing to see develop on the lakes.

I was 7 living in Longview at the time.

We had lake effect flurries off Lake Lewisville in 2021 at our house. It’s happened a couple times so not quite as impressive as Pontchatrain.

[Iceresistance]

Just looked at the 12z EPS and it keeps us cold during the entire run pretty much. Impressive!

I thought you said that the EPS was getting colder.
Curse?
This battle is going to be the Euro vs the GFS. Will the Euro gets it's revenge after its absolute flop in February 2021? Or will it's Winter Curse will keep going?

Winter Curse?

The Euro model is usually terrible with setups like this!

[Cpv17]

Just looked at the 12z EPS and it keeps us cold during the entire run pretty much. Impressive!

I thought you said that the EPS was getting colder.

This battle is going to be the Euro vs the GFS. Will the Euro gets it's revenge after its absolute flop in February 2021? Or will it's Winter Curse will keep going?

Well I will say one thing, the EPS at 500mb does look better than the GEFS. I sure hope the ensembles trend SW with that troughing. Its current configuration favors more precip east of us. You would think that with the -NAO and -AO it would favor more troughing over us and some hanging back WSW. That’s what gives me some pause to believe the current ensembles may be off. Plus with the -SOI you would think that would activate the STJ and help bring some troughing back over us as well. I thought that when these Artic blasts come in then it pushes the storm track/jet stream to the south but on the 500mb ensembles it still appears the storm track remains north of us which has me scratching my head.

[Iceresistance]

Just looked at the 12z EPS and it keeps us cold during the entire run pretty much. Impressive!

I thought you said that the EPS was getting colder.

This battle is going to be the Euro vs the GFS. Will the Euro gets it's revenge after its absolute flop in February 2021? Or will it's Winter Curse will keep going?

Well I will say one thing, the EPS at 500mb does look better than the GEFS. I sure hope the ensembles trend SW with that troughing. Its current configuration favors more precip east of us. You would think that with the -NAO and -AO it would favor more troughing over us and some hanging back WSW. That’s what gives me some pause to believe the current ensembles may be off. Plus with the -SOI you would think that would activate the STJ and help bring some troughing back over us as well. I thought that when these Artic blasts come in then it pushes the storm track/jet stream to the south but on the 500mb ensembles it still appears the storm track remains north of us which has me scratching my head.

The models have a really bad tendency to break down the negative phases too quickly. The Euro appears to not have this as bad compared to the GFS.

[cheezyWXguy]

I thought you said that the EPS was getting colder.

This battle is going to be the Euro vs the GFS. Will the Euro gets it's revenge after its absolute flop in February 2021? Or will it's Winter Curse will keep going?

Well I will say one thing, the EPS at 500mb does look better than the GEFS. I sure hope the ensembles trend SW with that troughing. Its current configuration favors more precip east of us. You would think that with the -NAO and -AO it would favor more troughing over us and some hanging back WSW. That’s what gives me some pause to believe the current ensembles may be off. Plus with the -SOI you would think that would activate the STJ and help bring some troughing back over us as well. I thought that when these Artic blasts come in then it pushes the storm track/jet stream to the south but on the 500mb ensembles it still appears the storm track remains north of us which has me scratching my head.

The models have a really bad tendency to break down the negative phases too quickly. The Euro appears to not have this as bad compared to the GFS.

For now, at least. $10 says they switch places at least once between now and the event. Even though there’s higher confidence the cold is coming, this event is still almost 10 days away, and we’ve seen how drastically 500mb patterns change on the ops, and even the ensembles.

[Ntxw]

Hard to believe it's only Dec 13th. Feels like we've been discussing forever.

[HockeyTx82]

Hard to believe it's only Dec 13th. Feels like we've been discussing forever.

If this thing starts to go the wrong way we will need to have welfare checks for all the members.....

[bubba hotep]

Hard to believe it's only Dec 13th. Feels like we've been discussing forever.

I told y'all back at the beginning of the thread that it would probably be after mid-month before things go interesting.

[Iceresistance]

Hard to believe it's only Dec 13th. Feels like we've been discussing forever.

If this thing starts to go the wrong way we will need to have welfare checks for all the members.....

I would ask for a refund if that ever happened.

But this appears very unlikely as parts of Siberia is currently -70°F with a -NAO/-AO combo.

[Brent]

Hard to believe it's only Dec 13th. Feels like we've been discussing forever.

I know it hit me today... Christmas is still 11 days away which is forever in meteorology though it looks like the cold peaks here before that

As for the precip thing.. yeah it's entirely possible it's dry but I definitely wouldn't rule anything out yet. We'll know a lot more by the weekend I bet on that

[Cpv17]

Hard to believe it's only Dec 13th. Feels like we've been discussing forever.

If this thing starts to go the wrong way we will need to have welfare checks for all the members.....

Lmao absolutely something like that