Texas Winter 2022-2023

[Itryatgolf]

 https://twitter.com/blizzardof96/status/1601308116045680640

[Itryatgolf]

Finally I got it corrected

[Itryatgolf]

That is how you get cold to be realized in the US. Probably overdone but it don't get any better than that image

[harp]

When is the GFS gonna stop being so squirrelly? I’m old school and have always followed the GFS. Someone save me!!! Lol!

[Ntxw]

When is the GFS gonna stop being so squirrelly? I’m old school and have always followed the GFS. Someone save me!!! Lol!

24-36 hours before it happens. Feb 2021 we were arguing that the Euro barely had a freeze at DFW just a couple days before it was -2F. And some model runs were showing little snow before the state was covered .

[Itryatgolf]

When is the GFS gonna stop being so squirrelly? I’m old school and have always followed the GFS. Someone save me!!! Lol!

That's what gives me pause on it being anything very strong until gefs gets on board

[Itryatgolf]

When is the GFS gonna stop being so squirrelly? I’m old school and have always followed the GFS. Someone save me!!! Lol!

24-36 hours before it happens. Feb 2021 we were arguing that the Euro barely had a freeze at DFW just a couple days before it was -2F. And some model runs were showing little snow before the state was covered .

Ntxw, remember the gfs did well with that feb 2021 cold blast so that's why I'm apprehensive currently.

[Ntxw]

When is the GFS gonna stop being so squirrelly? I’m old school and have always followed the GFS. Someone save me!!! Lol!

24-36 hours before it happens. Feb 2021 we were arguing that the Euro barely had a freeze at DFW just a couple days before it was -2F. And some model runs were showing little snow before the state was covered .

Ntxw, remember the gfs did well with that feb 2021 cold blast so that's why I'm apprehensive currently.

It did well in the very long range showing some extremes. It lost it in the long-medium range and locked in under 144 hours. Which we are not there yet.

[Iceresistance]

24-36 hours before it happens. Feb 2021 we were arguing that the Euro barely had a freeze at DFW just a couple days before it was -2F. And some model runs were showing little snow before the state was covered .

Ntxw, remember the gfs did well with that feb 2021 cold blast so that's why I'm apprehensive currently.

It did well in the very long range showing some extremes. It lost it in the long-medium range and locked in under 144 hours. Which we are not there yet.

This is probably where we are at right now with the GFS, it will eventually correct itself to what it was when it was first detected in the long range.

[Ntxw]

Ntxw, remember the gfs did well with that feb 2021 cold blast so that's why I'm apprehensive currently.

It did well in the very long range showing some extremes. It lost it in the long-medium range and locked in under 144 hours. Which we are not there yet.

This is probably where we are at right now with the GFS, it will eventually correct itself to what it was when it was first detected in the long range.

This is also a different GFS, remember recently 'upgraded'.

[Brent]

News here just said records from the 80s could be broken if everything lines up right... the records are below zero...

[Ntxw]

Extreme cold air mass is back in Canada on the 0z GFS. Hello Euro.

[orangeblood]

Extreme cold air mass is back in Canada on the 0z GFS. Hello Euro.

But it looks like it’s drunk with the big ULL across plains this week…that model has some major issues right now

[Ntxw]

Extreme cold air mass is back in Canada on the 0z GFS. Hello Euro.

But it looks like it’s drunk with the big ULL across plains this week…that model has some major issues right now

Yeah I think the cold air behind the big ULL will be a little better than advertised, good little cold snap before the main course. GFS definitely has been doing all kinds of funky stringing out of it. Do think this run of the GFS will give us 'and then' part the Euro couldn't do (240hrs limit).

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Extreme cold air mass is back in Canada on the 0z GFS. Hello Euro.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

GFS dropping the hammer 4 days from Christmas…. Let’s see how this ends

[Ntxw]

GFS dropping the hammer 4 days from Christmas…. Let’s see how this ends

North America is frigid. Some -50s to -60s on the NW coast of Hudson Bay.

[txtwister78]

GFS dropping the hammer 4 days from Christmas…. Let’s see how this ends

Yeah I think if you've got all that arctic air, it's coming south much faster than what it depicts on this run. This is that typical model feedback issue with the Rockies where it dams the air up and "holds" it on the model.

Regardless it looks very Euroish though so at least we're starting to see some alignment (at least on this run).

[Brent]

All I can do is laugh GFS went from 50s for highs to 20s here in 3 runs

[Ntxw]

GFS dropping the hammer 4 days from Christmas…. Let’s see how this ends

Yeah I think if you've got all that arctic air, it's coming south much faster than what it depicts on this run. This is that typical model feedback issue with the Rockies where it dams the air up and "holds" it on the model.

Regardless it looks very Euroish though so at least we're starting to see some alignment (at least on this run).

This is why it's so valuable at this lead time to put weight on the ensembles. The OPs do their dance but eventually they will converge towards the ENS.