Texas Winter 2022-2023

[Ntxw]

Not sure what the rest of the run will do but 18z is already earlier in the run showing more -EPO ridge than 12z.

What does that mean?

The more -EPO the more Western Canada is loaded with cold.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Not sure what the rest of the run will do but 18z is already earlier in the run showing more -EPO ridge than 12z.

What does that mean?

-EPO is perfect for cold weather lovers

[Iceresistance]

18z GFS has the snow possibly delayed, but there is consistency right now for something big on the week before Christmas.

[Ntxw]

18z GFS has the snow possibly delayed, but there is consistency right now for something big on the week before Christmas.

Way too far out for those details. You want to see improvements in the cold loading pattern first, then delivery, and then shortwaves.

[Cpv17]

He knows it is coming. You have to respect he is great at trolling some of y’all.

Yeah I think he knows it’s coming but I believe he really isn’t sold yet on the direction and he could be leaning towards us only getting a glancing blow. At least that’s how I perceived it.

I see nothing that suggests a moderately or extremely positive PNA in the next two to three weeks. Negative NAO, negative EPO… high latitude blocking across the board.

A slightly positive PNA still puts us squarely in the mix although the forecast is for it to remain neutral to slightly negative.

Hell, I’m almost to the point where I won’t be expecting anything north of 65 degrees the rest of the month once we pass the 15th.

Yeah I’m right there with you on that.

[Ntxw]

18z GFS went nuts lalaland with North American cold. .

It's not a carbon copy of 12z but we can see what the model and ensembles are trying to do. A series of systems buckles the jet stream and eventually the cold presses in multiple waves until the big one comes with southern trof. As it usually does with deep Arctic outbreaks.

[Iceresistance]

18z GFS went nuts lalaland with North American cold. .

I'm going to post that, if that verified, we would be facing a cold that may rival December 1983 or 1989 in terms of the lowest temperatures!

[Ntxw]

18z GFS went nuts lalaland with North American cold. .

I'm going to post that, if that verified, we would be facing a cold that may rival December 1983 or 1989 in terms of the lowest temperatures!

My curiosity sits with the -AO. We did not have this in November cold snap. It's the key for a long duration type freeze.

[Iceresistance]

Uhhhh, GFS? What are you even doing!?


https://s9.gifyu.com/images/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_59.png

[harp]

Louisiana gets in on the action on this run.

[Cerlin]

Don’t think this was posted from the 12z suites, but the Crazy Canadian is back at it again!

[Iceresistance]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2022120712/gem_T2m_scus_41.png Don’t think this was posted from the 12z suites, but the Crazy Canadian is back at it again!

18z GFS is even COLDER! (How often can I say that? )


https://s9.gifyu.com/images/18z-GFS-OOF.png

[bubba hotep]

Something that jumps out at me is that this is setting up to be a long-duration cold event. Watch how the cold actually continues to build in our source region after the first push. Typically, we would see those cold anomalies rotate eastward, followed by a warmup.

[Cpv17]

Something that jumps out at me is that this is setting up to be a long-duration cold event. Watch how the cold actually continues to build in our source region after the first push. Typically, we would see those cold anomalies rotate eastward, followed by a warmup.

https://i.ibb.co/Kjh7kLR/4040911f-2647-4a7a-af3c-187175d06b40.gif

Yeah. With the -AO and -NAO locked in, the progressive pattern could possibly get thrown out the window.

And remember, temps would likely be even colder if there’s a snowpack over us.

[snowballzzz]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2022120712/gem_T2m_scus_41.png Don’t think this was posted from the 12z suites, but the Crazy Canadian is back at it again!

18z GFS is even COLDER! (How often can I say that? )

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/18z-GFS-OOF.png
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/18z-GFS-OOF.png

-30 in Kansas. That is insanity.

[Ntxw]

Something that jumps out at me is that this is setting up to be a long-duration cold event. Watch how the cold actually continues to build in our source region after the first push. Typically, we would see those cold anomalies rotate eastward, followed by a warmup.

https://i.ibb.co/Kjh7kLR/4040911f-2647-4a7a-af3c-187175d06b40.gif

Yeah. With the -AO and -NAO locked in, the progressive pattern could possibly get thrown out the window.

And remember, temps would likely be even colder if there’s a snowpack over us.

It's been a long while since we've had a December favorable pattern. You'd have to go back to 2013-2014. Whether or not it produces the extremes, at the very least will feel like winter.

[Ntxw]

Some other pretty good years showing up along with 1978 and 2009. 1985 and 1989 December popping up with them both some memorable cold snaps.

[Ntxw]

If you throw in D-11 you get the big daddy of them all 1983 .

[Cpv17]

I think with these potentials it’s always wise to go with the conservative approach, especially at this range but just know that the potential is there for an extreme solution.

[Itryatgolf]

Something else to consider is I we can get a +AAM, that would slow the flow down somewhat also. I mentioned if the wpo and epo go negative, that's typically a harbinger of a cold outbreak soon after