Texas Fall 2022

[Iceresistance]

Big winter storm on the Euro.

I saw that, would be crazy for Early December Standards.

[bubba hotep]

Big winter storm on the Euro.

Cold over the top but need that to cutoff and slow down, which has been the trend this Fall.

[Brent]

The TWC app has me changing over to snow during that timeframe

[TropicalTundra]

Big winter storm on the Euro.

Has me going from 70’s to 30’s overnight which seems like an ice scenario. Hope that doesn’t play out.

[Ntxw]

Signal is pretty strong. Another big -EPO episode will dump cold into North America. This one should be a bit different in that it will be shallow, would not be surprised at an overrunning ice event with the SE ridge pushing to the east. Low level cold at the surface outpacing 500mb flow.

[harp]

0z GFS dumps ice on you guys in Texas.

[Brent]

0z GFS dumps ice on you guys in Texas.

Yeah I'm gonna have to pass on this run. Big ice storm. Not much snow

[TropicalTundra]

0z GFS dumps ice on you guys in Texas.

Same timeframe as 12z Euro aswell. Although I’m not sure why this didn’t pop up in earlier GFS runs?

[Brent]

0z GFS dumps ice on you guys in Texas.

Same timeframe as 12z Euro aswell. Although I’m not sure why this didn’t pop up in earlier GFS runs?

It's been kind of showing up here for a few runs on and off(also the weather apps have been hinting. TWC has shown freezing rain in that timeframe). Well see. I mean it is 10 days out but if it gets consistent watch out. I forgot the Euro also showed it

[Iceresistance]

SPC has a Day 5 Enhanced for Louisiana!

[harp]

The GFS and CMC absolutely SUCK for Texas AND Louisiana. Nothing encouraging.

[starsfan65]

The GFS and CMC absolutely SUCK for Texas AND Louisiana. Nothing encouraging.

Why?

[harp]

The GFS and CMC absolutely SUCK for Texas AND Louisiana. Nothing encouraging.

Why?

Nothing close to winter weather through December 11th.

[bubba hotep]

The GFS and CMC absolutely SUCK for Texas AND Louisiana. Nothing encouraging.

Why?

Nothing close to winter weather through December 11th.

GFS shows progressive flow with a large ridge anchored over the Gulf.

[harp]

Why?

Nothing close to winter weather through December 11th.

GFS shows progressive flow with a large ridge anchored over the Gulf.

Yep, that ridge is preventing any real cold from coming south. Shunts it all off to the east.

[Brent]

The GFS and CMC absolutely SUCK for Texas AND Louisiana. Nothing encouraging.

Why?

Nothing close to winter weather through December 11th.

Could be right but a few days ago this weekend was sunny and warm in DFW too I find it hard to trust the op runs when it's wildly different run to run

[Ntxw]

I wouldn't fret, early December was *supposed* to be warm and mild. 500mb may not be favorable but models have been so-so medium to long range with surface cold. Beware of warm forecasts 7-10 days out.

[Iceresistance]

Good lord! The Euro is showing a really negative NAO!

 https://twitter.com/nynjpaweather/status/1596264725590982657

[Itryatgolf]

Good lord! The Euro is showing a really negative NAO!

https://twitter.com/nynjpaweather/status/1596264725590982657?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

It's best to focus on euro ens and gfs ens with teleconnections imo. Usually they are the most accurate.

[Iceresistance]

If the PNA refuses to become negative or become a weaker negative only to return to neutral faster than expected, this could have huge implications down the road for winter weather here.