Weak Low Pressure in the SW Caribbean

[zzzh]

Closed circulation with 30kt wind and maintained convection for over 12h, not sure why this is not even labeled by the NHC

[Hurricane2022]

https://i.imgur.com/WkUxc81.png
https://i.imgur.com/IVuzjlO.jpg
Closed circulation with 30kt wind and maintained convection for over 12h, not sure why this is not even labeled by the NHC

Maybe another surprise TS?

[Teban54]

Did any models even show this happening right now? The model cane GFS and CMC are showing come from another system a few days later.

[LarryWx]

Did any models even show this happening right now? The model cane GFS and CMC are showing come from another system a few days later.

Absolutely! Every run of the GFS from the 18Z 11/12 through 6Z 11/15 runs had a SW Caribbean TC forming about now, which was addressed. Since then, all GFS runs have shown good convection along with a small surface low though most not quite as a TD. Anyone who wants to see these runs can still see them at Tidbits since they currently have back to the 12Z 11/12 run.

Here was my first post on this (done on 11/13) in the Models thread:

https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 0#p3010297

"There's a weak to moderate signal on the various ensemble runs for something in the SW Caribbean from next weekend into early to mid next week fwiw. The 0Z GFS fwiw actually has a strong TS there then. Keep in mind that it will be pretty late in November by then. But it being La Niña during the active era, one never knows even though the odds are low (under 10%). The SW Caribbean remains the #1 most concentrated area for genesis though with less and less activity:

Nov 11-20 geneses 1851-2015: add 2016's MH Otto to this
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images/nov_11_20.png

Nov 21-30 geneses:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images/nov_21_30.png "

[LarryWx]

Here's some more on this disturbance that was posted later on 11/13:

https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 0#p3010321

"Fwiw, the 12Z GFS is the 4th run in a row with a TCG in the SW Caribbean this weekend. The 12Z CMC also has a low but it stays very weak. The 12Z ICON, 0Z Euro, and 0Z UKMET have (virtually) nothing. So, it may very well be just convective feedback on the GFS. For now, I'm keeping this as a nonzero but only slight chance. Posted below is the link for formations and tracks for November 11th-20th for the period 1851-2015..adding 2016's Otto to this makes 8 in the SW Caribbean or one every 21 years on average to form there then. Just considering La Niña seasons, I'd wild guess it at closer to about one every ten there. So, if there's going to be a mid November TCG, that would be the most likely location:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images/nov_11_20.png

Edit:
Mid-November La Niña TCG in SW Caribbean since 1851:
-Otto 2016
-Laura 1971
-#20 of 1933
-#15 of 1916

Per Eric Webb's tables, there have been ~46 La Niña seasons since 1851. So, 4/46 or once every eleven La Niña seasons has had a mid-November SW Caribbean TCG. So, a small but nontrivial chance.

---------------

The 12Z GEFS is one of the most active in the SW Caribbean this weekend with several members as hurricanes or strong TSs."

[ChrisH-UK]

Here's a 2 hour loop of the area this morning. From the looks of it they seems to be shear there's a south west lower level motion under the upper north west motion, hard to tell until day break. It has been appearing on the models as a small spot of vorticity, it's typical of the models to miss small pop up storms as the global models work on a bigger scale and a small storm just disappears in the pixels. Worth keeping a eye on as it moves ashore over NIcaragua.

[wxman57]

I don't believe the GFS for a second.

[LarryWx]

I don't believe the GFS for a second.

The GFS no longer has a TC from this and hasn't since the 6Z 11/15 run after having had a TC for three days of runs. But it has continued to have convectively active SW Caribbean weak lows for this weekend since that run, which actually has been pretty accurate. I don't think anyone here thinks this is or will become a TC before going inland shortly. Other models had little or no convection and hardly any or no surface circulation.