Iceresistance wrote:Brent wrote:Iceresistance wrote:Still trust the Ensembles! The 0z GEFS has 3-4 inches of 10:1 ratio snowfall.
That's the real reason I started getting interested... and maybe its right but it does seem like almost every other model favors a drier solution. Even the op GFS seems to be trending that way
Well, I just checked it and there is no indication for that for the GFS.
0z HRRR is the first run to feature snow, it's very aggressive for it already!
NWS-Norman has this discussionThere are couple important forecast points to note about this
system. First, there is still some variation on the exact track of
the trough. Model consensus would suggest somewhere near or just
north of I-40. Given this track, the highest snowfall totals would
be expected across the north central into northwest Oklahoma with
a sharp gradient likely somewhere near I-40 (which seems to often
be the case in our part of the world). Second, while our current
deterministic forecast has >2" across northwest Oklahoma and 1-2"
north of I-40, given the intense, dynamic system, the potential
for more significant snowfall is there if cooling can happen quick
enough and the rates are high enough (the QPF is quite high with
this system). For example, the NBM 75th percentile has widespread
2-4" near and north of I-40 with >5" across northwest Oklahoma. So
from a probabilistic point of view, there is definitely the
potential for more snowfall than currently in the deterministic
forecast. Less snowfall is possible too if the system is warmer or
if the track shifts farther to the north.
The funny partGiven this track, the highest snowfall totals would
be expected across the north central into northwest Oklahoma with
a sharp gradient likely somewhere near I-40 (which seems to often
be the case in our part of the world).
It just seems like if you compare the earlier runs it's decreasing the snow totals over here but whatever... I guess at least as long as the ensembles are good. Hopefully the NAM will come around tomorrow
Edit the GEFS now has the heavier amounts to my south and west
Another thing I've noticed the TV met who always hypes up snow here is not talking about this... In fact on the news tonight he showed a model with zero snow here
hopefully Friday trends better. I mean luckily it's only November and I'm sure we'll get a good snow eventually but I don't wanna waste this pattern
