Brent wrote:Iceresistance wrote:Brent wrote:
I will say I do seem to remember during the big snowstorm in February I seem to remember it was all meh after literally days of hype and every other model showing it and of course it didn't verify so maybe... But who knows with this pattern. I have been a pretty cautious person about this storm but today I was starting to feel different
Still trust the Ensembles! The 0z GEFS has 3-4 inches of 10:1 ratio snowfall.
That's the real reason I started getting interested... and maybe its right but it does seem like almost every other model favors a drier solution. Even the op GFS seems to be trending that way
Well, I just checked it and there is no indication for that for the GFS.
0z HRRR is the first run to feature snow, it's very aggressive for it already!
NWS-Norman has this discussion
There are couple important forecast points to note about this
system. First, there is still some variation on the exact track of
the trough. Model consensus would suggest somewhere near or just
north of I-40. Given this track, the highest snowfall totals would
be expected across the north central into northwest Oklahoma with
a sharp gradient likely somewhere near I-40 (which seems to often
be the case in our part of the world). Second, while our current
deterministic forecast has >2" across northwest Oklahoma and 1-2"
north of I-40, given the intense, dynamic system, the potential
for more significant snowfall is there if cooling can happen quick
enough and the rates are high enough (the QPF is quite high with
this system). For example, the NBM 75th percentile has widespread
2-4" near and north of I-40 with >5" across northwest Oklahoma. So
from a probabilistic point of view, there is definitely the
potential for more snowfall than currently in the deterministic
forecast. Less snowfall is possible too if the system is warmer or
if the track shifts farther to the north.
The funny part
Given this track, the highest snowfall totals would
be expected across the north central into northwest Oklahoma with
a sharp gradient likely somewhere near I-40 (which seems to often
be the case in our part of the world).
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021 
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say
Never with weather! Because
ANYTHING is possible!
hope that's wrong