Texas Fall 2022

[Iceresistance]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1590349735952809984

[Ntxw]

For mid November Euro is about as nice as you can ask for, for the cold mongers. Pinwheeling PV up north, big PNA/EPO ridge and shortwave lagging the east-central trough.

Does it have staying power? Do analogs suggest that this type of pattern now indicates a cold winter ahead?

These types of seasons favor front load, and we've kind of seen ~30 day return periods (mid Oct cold, mid Nov cold...mid Dec?) that rolls with the MJO. 2nd half of winter will be determined by the rate of Nina weakening. Some models suggest a hard flip to El Nino in springtime. A faster flip makes for a more interesting late winter.

[Ntxw]

And here is why the forecast has been trending a little colder. From further out, model biases was not so good for the Hudson Bay area but as it has gotten closer we have trended to morning blocking up there. It doesn't allow the cold to slide east-ward trajectory but rather fill into the trough to the south.

[Cerlin]

18z GFS strikes again! Massive snow rates—either way this looks to be a high QPE event for the red river. I’d like to see it trend a little colder so Texas can cash in.

[Iceresistance]

18z GFS strikes again! Massive snow rates—either way this looks to be a high QPE event for the red river. I’d like to see it trend a little colder so Texas can cash in.

Checked the Kuchera Ratio, 6-8 inches!? I'm dreaming!


https://s10.gifyu.com/images/18z-GFS-Kuchera-Ratio-Snowfall.png

[Brent]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2022110918/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_21.png

18z GFS strikes again! Massive snow rates—either way this looks to be a high QPE event for the red river. I’d like to see it trend a little colder so Texas can cash in.

Checked the Kuchera Ratio, 6-8 inches!? I'm dreaming!

https://s10.gifyu.com/images/18z-GFS-Kuchera-Ratio-Snowfall.png
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/18z-GFS-Kuchera-Ratio-Snowfall.png

Seems hard to believe but the consistency is quite something. Im still expecting token flakes at best tbh

[Cpv17]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2022110918/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_21.png

18z GFS strikes again! Massive snow rates—either way this looks to be a high QPE event for the red river. I’d like to see it trend a little colder so Texas can cash in.

Checked the Kuchera Ratio, 6-8 inches!? I'm dreaming!

https://s10.gifyu.com/images/18z-GFS-Kuchera-Ratio-Snowfall.png
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/18z-GFS-Kuchera-Ratio-Snowfall.png

Seems hard to believe but the consistency is quite something. Im still expecting token flakes at best tbh

I actually think it’s a reasonable solution. Wouldn’t surprise me one bit.

[Brent]

Checked the Kuchera Ratio, 6-8 inches!? I'm dreaming!

https://s10.gifyu.com/images/18z-GFS-Kuchera-Ratio-Snowfall.png
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/18z-GFS-Kuchera-Ratio-Snowfall.png

Seems hard to believe but the consistency is quite something. Im still expecting token flakes at best tbh

I actually think it’s a reasonable solution. Wouldn’t surprise me one bit.

If the precip is heavy enough definitely but we'll see

[Ntxw]

Seems hard to believe but the consistency is quite something. Im still expecting token flakes at best tbh

I actually think it’s a reasonable solution. Wouldn’t surprise me one bit.

If the precip is heavy enough definitely but we'll see

There are 3 moving peices with the event. One is big Canadian trough coming down feeding cold air, two shortwave in the southwest, three incoming energy from the Pac NW. A lot of moving parts and gut says model are underestimating. There are several additional shortwaves to watch for the whole week.

[gpsnowman]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2022110918/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_21.png

18z GFS strikes again! Massive snow rates—either way this looks to be a high QPE event for the red river. I’d like to see it trend a little colder so Texas can cash in.

Checked the Kuchera Ratio, 6-8 inches!? I'm dreaming!

https://s10.gifyu.com/images/18z-GFS-Kuchera-Ratio-Snowfall.png
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/18z-GFS-Kuchera-Ratio-Snowfall.png

Seems hard to believe but the consistency is quite something. Im still expecting token flakes at best tbh

This is crazy for mid November. If DFW can come in under guidance temp wise maybe we can see some of those token flakes.

[Cpv17]

[gpsnowman]

I hope we aren't getting the cold too early. I'm afraid we will have a warm up for Thanksgiving. I like my turkey days cold!!

[Iceresistance]

NWS-Norman has taken note, but there is still enough uncertainty to not give out snowfall totals, yet.

Zonal upper flow this weekend starts becoming more southwesterly as
another upper wave starts approaching the Southern Plains from the
west, bringing our next cold front along with another round of cold
Canadian air on Monday. With stable air from this system, not
expecting any convection but a cold rain on Monday afternoon.
However, could see a wintry mix of precipitation Monday morning as
well as late in the evening as temperatures drop below freezing.
Although southwest Oklahoma through north Texas are unlikely to see
any wintry precipitation, still rather early to discriminate wintry
precipitation types, but with this frigid air mass snow
precipitation is most likely. Upper troughing will maintain our
cooling trend through the middle of next week.

[Brent]

If Monday isn't enough next Friday has a rain snow mix on WeatherBug too

But I too wonder what this means for Thanksgiving and Christmas

[Iceresistance]

If Monday isn't enough next Friday has a rain snow mix on WeatherBug too

But I too wonder what this means for Thanksgiving and Christmas

News 9 (KWTV) has the same thing for Next Friday as well!

[Brent]

If Monday isn't enough next Friday has a rain snow mix on WeatherBug too

But I too wonder what this means for Thanksgiving and Christmas

News 9 (KWTV) has the same thing for Next Friday as well!

No precip here but next Saturday is actually the coldest day of the forecast on NBC. He was very skeptical on a significant snowfall too for Monday due to borderline temps

[TropicalTundra]

Checked the Kuchera Ratio, 6-8 inches!? I'm dreaming!

https://s10.gifyu.com/images/18z-GFS-Kuchera-Ratio-Snowfall.png
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/18z-GFS-Kuchera-Ratio-Snowfall.png

Seems hard to believe but the consistency is quite something. Im still expecting token flakes at best tbh

This is crazy for mid November. If DFW can come in under guidance temp wise maybe we can see some of those token flakes.

Right now I’d say Global models are being a tad bit warm on Monday especially south of the Red river. Hopefully high range models bring stuff to the table.

[Iceresistance]

GEFS Snowfall signal is still very strong, it may have gotten even stronger in the past few runs.

[Iceresistance]

WPC update


https://s10.gifyu.com/images/prbww_sn25_DAY5_conus-1.gif

[Ntxw]

Mid to late next week's system is starting to look like the bigger storm. First winter storm of the season? 7 days out caveats but peculiar.

At the moment air above looks pretty cold. Those along 1-20 to I-40 with interest.