ATL: NICOLE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Poonwalker]

Pressure has dropped per recon.

https://i.imgur.com/YuKxvDu.png

Gained some latitude too.

Are you sure? It looks like the center may be just south of Grand Bahama Island if I'm understanding that correctly. Other opinions? If the center isn't north of that island by the time it gets to the longitude of the western part of it, it would then clearly be south of the model consensus.

Ukmet and Euro have not been reliable models for Nicole so far and the TCVN is skewed. Follow the GFS on this one.

[AutoPenalti]

Pressure has dropped per recon.

https://i.imgur.com/YuKxvDu.png

Gained some latitude too.

It did not. Still 265.

[Kat5]

Pressure has dropped per recon.

https://i.imgur.com/YuKxvDu.png

Gained some latitude too.

It did not. Still 265.

NHC says 275 and the storm was at 26.5 N the previous advisory.

[galaxy401]

So why is there a big difference between the Pressure readings? VDM had 976 mb but the NHC advisory went with 980.

[Jr0d]

So why is there a big difference between the Pressure readings? VDM had 976 mb but the NHC advisory went with 980.

NOAA's plane is low biased on extrapolated pressure readings. Unfortunately (guessing because of proximity to land) they did not get a dropsonde near the center.

[typhoonty]

I did an interpolation between the last two VDM's from before Marsh Harbour landfall and I got an average of 277 degrees. A turn has happened, but not to the extent that the models have been suggesting. I'm still south of TCVN and definitely favor Treasure over Space coast landfall.

Winds were probably 80-85 mph a couple hours ago but now 75ish with the waning convection via Dry air entranement. Expect another pulse up over the gulf stream.

[NorthPalm-Rainman]

Does anybody think this is an ERC? (eyewall replacement cycle)

[Beachside]

Both WESH ans WFTV are showing Nicole maintaining hurricane strength as far inland as Winter Haven?

[NDG]

3 hr saved radar loop, a more WNW heading seems to have started.

[NDG]

Both WESH ans WFTV are showing Nicole maintaining hurricane strength as far inland as Winter Haven?

GFS has been persistent on that solution as well.

[jfk08c]

Does anybody think this is an ERC? (eyewall replacement cycle)

Negative. EWRCs only occur with intense storms

[PavelGaborik10]

Does anybody think this is an ERC? (eyewall replacement cycle)

No, she barely has a core.

A well organized one, at least. Nowhere near organized enough for an EWRC, she's just taking a beating right now.

[chaser1]

3 hr saved radar loop, a more WNW heading seems to have started.

https://i.imgur.com/aB4dm2b.gif

Hard to say but maybe? I certainly see the westward motion but it's a short loop and it may have just started gaining latitude. Btw, you notice how the eye feature looks exactly like Lake Apopka LOL?

[aspen]

So why is there a big difference between the Pressure readings? VDM had 976 mb but the NHC advisory went with 980.

NOAA3 didn’t do an eye drop, so they used the extrapolated pressure — which has been shown to be running a few mb too low — for the VDM. 980 mb looks like a good estimate based on the other NOAA3 passes/drops today.

[SFLcane]

[cane5]

We always say it but that Gulfstream is something else.

[NorthPalm-Rainman]

Does anybody think this is an ERC? (eyewall replacement cycle)

No, she barely has a core.

A well organized one, at least. Nowhere near organized enough for an EWRC, she's just taking a beating right now.

Yeah, It looks almost like she is falling apart.

[Poonwalker]

Does anybody think this is an ERC? (eyewall replacement cycle)

Not strong enough as a compact system for that. That requires an intense and small eye that develops a concentric larger one to replace it. More likely a subtropical feature. It’s a hybrid storm right now due to boundary of the cool air mass north and warm tropical mass south. It ate some dry air earlier that caused the eroded look right now.

[cane5]

3 hr saved radar loop, a more WNW heading seems to have started.

https://i.imgur.com/aB4dm2b.gif

It does look like it. What a great sat loop….

[Patrick99]

Does anybody think this is an ERC? (eyewall replacement cycle)

No, she barely has a core.

A well organized one, at least. Nowhere near organized enough for an EWRC, she's just taking a beating right now.

Yeah, It looks almost like she is falling apart.

I think it's just going to pulse up and down from now until landfall. Call it a strong TS or a weak H, I'm not sure it matters. It's eroding a lot of coast either way.