ATL: NICOLE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

When will we see Nicole start hitting the Gulf Stream? It has to clear the Bahamian island to the north, correct, then right after it can start feeling the effects? --or does it run a bit closer to the Florida coastline?

[SFLcane]

Thinking this might come in further south then all models showing we will see.

[eastcoastFL]

Thinking this might come in further south then all models showing we will see.

Seems to be right on track for the time being. I just wonder how quick she will turn wnw and NW.

[alienstorm]

Seems to be heading a tab south 260-265 also western eyewall starting to generate.

[tolakram]

saved loop

[TheHurricaneGod]

it does seem like it wobbled south a little, based on the radar. the southern eyewall has lost a little bit of latitude

[jlauderdal]

Thinking this might come in further south then all models showing we will see.

Wpb landfall is in the cards

[AutoPenalti]

It's extremely hard for models to nail down an exact landfall within 24 hours. So at this point it's real time tracking.

[cane5]

saved loop
https://i.imgur.com/rnwTljs.gif

wow that’s a great loop is that a ongoing loop live..?

[LarryWx]

As long as she is near the E tip of Grand Bahama Island at the 4PM advisory, she wouldn't be tracking south of any of the models.

[SFLcane]

[typhoonty]

Hate to say it, models are pretty useless at this point. Most models init'ed this going north of Marsh Harbour by a bit. 25 nm error at init. Who knows the downstream effects. The average error a day out is about 40 miles.

Take it from someone who had to live through the fallout of Ian. Everyone from SR 80 north should be preparing like the eye will come over your house, and then be happy when the eye (hopefully) passes north of your location.

[StormingB81]

WESH and WFTV (Orlando stations) “in house” models showing landfall closer to Brevard. It’s worth noting their models sniffed out Ian’s progress before the models even with the track across the state south of what was forecasted.

[Poonwalker]

When will we see Nicole start hitting the Gulf Stream? It has to clear the Bahamian island to the north, correct, then right after it can start feeling the effects? --or does it run a bit closer to the Florida coastline?

It about to tap into it right now. Going from about 40J OHC (due to depth) to about 80J and stays there all the way across. Starts right around Grand Bahama exit

[Coolcruiseman]

WESH and WFTV (Orlando stations) “in house” models showing landfall closer to Brevard. It’s worth noting their models sniffed out Ian’s progress before the models even with the track across the state south of what was forecasted.

WFTV has been fairly consistent with that closer to Brevard call. It also sniffed out Ian exiting over Cape Canaveral before the big models.

[NDG]

Be careful with the long range radar out of S FL, it is slightly tilted circulation.
Radar from Nassau shows it making landfall over the eastern tip of Grand Bahama Island, it looks to track to the north of Freeport.

[chris_fit]

WESH and WFTV (Orlando stations) “in house” models showing landfall closer to Brevard. It’s worth noting their models sniffed out Ian’s progress before the models even with the track across the state south of what was forecasted.

WFTV has been fairly consistent with that closer to Brevard call. It also sniffed out Ian exiting over Cape Canaveral before the big models.

WFLA in Tampa also showing 'in house model' and it going further north into Indian River/Brevard Area - wonder if all their in house models are the same.

[SFLcane]

Eyewall looks great!

[wxman57]

WESH and WFTV (Orlando stations) “in house” models showing landfall closer to Brevard. It’s worth noting their models sniffed out Ian’s progress before the models even with the track across the state south of what was forecasted.

I doubt any TV station is running "in-house" models. With a storm that has such a large area of TS winds, the exact landfall point is less important. Any hurricane force winds may cover only a few square miles out over the water. Expect some strong tropical storm-force winds north of where the center reaches the coast. Beyond then, all that cool, dry air over Florida now will be flowing into Nicole, knocking its core down fairly quickly. Not a big rain producer. I see the latest EC forecasting only 2-3 inches across the eastern half of the Peninsula. This is no Ian. It'll be all gone by Friday afternoon. So ends the season (I hope).

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1590444019926315008