ATL: NICOLE - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
jlauderdal wrote:
Coming right at us with no protection on the house, in modeling we trust![]()
If any part of that eyewall affects my house, my marriage is over because I said it was going north of here and this storm will cost me more than my house being leveled in a 5
Don’t worry your marriage and house will be fine it’s supposed to turn WNW later today.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
GCANE wrote:CAPE up to 2000 in the Gulf Stream
its doing good work, plenty of convection streaming into the SE coast...moderate to heavy intensity, typical tropical setup
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Don't know if the winds are up there yet, but it surely looks like a hurricane now.


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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
boca wrote:jlauderdal wrote:
Coming right at us with no protection on the house, in modeling we trust![]()
If any part of that eyewall affects my house, my marriage is over because I said it was going north of here and this storm will cost me more than my house being leveled in a 5
Don’t worry your marriage and house will be fine it’s supposed to turn WNW later today.
Actually it should be moving W today and WNW overnight.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
AutoPenalti wrote:boca wrote:jlauderdal wrote:Coming right at us with no protection on the house, in modeling we trust![]()
If any part of that eyewall affects my house, my marriage is over because I said it was going north of here and this storm will cost me more than my house being leveled in a 5
Don’t worry your marriage and house will be fine it’s supposed to turn WNW later today.
Actually it should be moving W today and WNW overnight.
It IS moving west now as per latest avdvisory pkg.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Definitely sucking heat out of the ocean now.
Nice negative temp anomaly in the core's boundary layer
https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/t ... 6_tano.gif
4 hrs in the Gulf Stream on deck
Nice negative temp anomaly in the core's boundary layer
https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/t ... 6_tano.gif
4 hrs in the Gulf Stream on deck
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
MetroMike wrote:AutoPenalti wrote:boca wrote:
Don’t worry your marriage and house will be fine it’s supposed to turn WNW later today.
Actually it should be moving W today and WNW overnight.
It IS moving west now as per latest avdvisory pkg.
265 is just south of west
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
jlauderdal wrote:
Coming right at us with no protection on the house, in modeling we trust![]()
If any part of that eyewall affects my house, my marriage is over because I said it was going north of here and this storm will cost me more than my house being leveled in a 5
Maybe starting up the generator will win some brownie points.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Multiple unflagged 65+ kt SFMR readings in the NW quadrant. We might have Hurricane Nicole now.
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I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Looks like we have SFMR of 65kt and FL of 70kt. FL winds are a little too low, and SFMR is probably unreliable due to land proximity, so it’s probably not quite enough to get cat1 yet
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

There has been a stream of dry air coming in from the gulf affecting Nicole from maintaining and building her south and east eyewall. It looks like that stream has now been cut off, will probably take about 6-8 hrs before the dry air mixes out completely on her south side.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Flight level winds of 70 knots and SFMR of 68 knots supports a hurricane upgrade, IMHO.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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