ATL: NICOLE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

. Eye Character: Open in the northeast
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 26 nautical miles (30 statute miles)

[jlauderdal]

Lightning starting to fire in the eyewall

You’ve been waiting for that, I know you like that lightning!

I can see it when I close my eyes

How are we looking on CAPE, not too impressive?

[jlauderdal]

Looks to be slowing down. May begin the turn to the west shortly.

if it is a turn and not a wobble then the nhc track will be way off, its too early for a real turn.

[Sciencerocks]

[GCANE]

You’ve been waiting for that, I know you like that lightning!

I can see it when I close my eyes

How are we looking on CAPE, not too impressive?

Ahead of Nicole, its low, about 1500.
The heavy CAPE is east of Nicole and out of range of a reliable measurement.
However, GFS is showing the heavy CAPE being ingested into Nicole

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Hardly a breeze here in Lakeland. Storm will go just to my south tomorrow morning.

[Teban54]

. Eye Character: Open in the northeast
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 26 nautical miles (30 statute miles)

With the latest convective burst in the NE quad, I imagine it won't be open for much longer.

[SFLcane]

[AutoPenalti]

Sunny in Deerfield right now, I'm about 10 minutes away from the coast.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/ZachCoveyTV/status/1590373324059992064

[tolakram]

saved loop

[typhoonty]

Given what recon is finding, I'd go with 50 kts vs. 55 kts. The pressure field is just too large to support hurricane-force winds. NHC had 60 kts on their last advisory, which is higher than any wind the plane has found. I bet they keep the winds 60 kts to keep the public on alert for the possibility of a hurricane. They never indicate weakening for a storm nearing land. If they did, then the public may relax and stop preparing. We don't deal with the public, so I'd set the winds at 50 kts, which is much more realistic.

While I do agree with this, I do think once it gets some deep convection closer to the center as it goes over the gulf stream that the max winds will reach 65-70 kt, but it was nowhere close to a hurricane this morning. I doubt it gets above 75 kts worst case due to the loose pressure gradient as you said.

[Poonwalker]

watching that moist air off Cuba and whether Nicole can cover her backside with it

[LandoWill]

i really love the SWFMD website radar. i can see how the track projection changes from update to update, i wokeup to it be on top of me, and now again it's back further north.

Yawn

[SFLcane]

Eyewall should close off in a few hours.

[jlauderdal]

Eyewall should close off in a few hours.

https://i.postimg.cc/PJBXYh57/eye.gif

Coming right at us with no protection on the house, in modeling we trust

If any part of that eyewall affects my house, my marriage is over because I said it was going north of here and this storm will cost me more than my house being leveled in a 5

[Michele B]

https://twitter.com/ZachCoveyTV/status/1590373324059992064

Wow. Seems a bit early to have such damage.

Imagine what it will be like after tomorrow when the worst wind and water comes past?

[cycloneye]

Flooding in WPB.

 https://twitter.com/westpalmbch/status/1590369722587029504

[SFLcane]

Its almost fully closed now.

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/nadocast/status/1590367637837680640