On the DAT, there is now an EF4 damage point north of Clarksville. No official word yet from NWS, but it appears that tornado is going to be upgraded.
The EF3 tornado in Idabel (same one) is the first EF3+ in OK since 4/30/19
Texas Fall 2022
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ElectricStorm
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Re: Texas Fall 2022
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Brent
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Re: Texas Fall 2022
ElectricStorm wrote:On the DAT, there is now an EF4 damage point north of Clarksville. No official word yet from NWS, but it appears that tornado is going to be upgraded.
The EF3 tornado in Idabel (same one) is the first EF3+ in OK since 4/30/19
Yeah I just saw this
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#neversummer
Re: Texas Fall 2022
Quick update still expecting several cold fronts in succession. Don't rely too heavily on the OPs just yet, stick to the ensembles for now. It's still one of the better cool/cold stretches in a long while.
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WacoWx
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Re: Texas Fall 2022
Anyone have the timing on the front Thursday night/Friday? Golf on Friday afternoon is looking miserable.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022
Ntxw wrote:Quick update still expecting several cold fronts in succession. Don't rely too heavily on the OPs just yet, stick to the ensembles for now. It's still one of the better cool/cold stretches in a long while.
Are we talking first official freeze for the DFW UHI? Seems like the CPC outlooks are showing high probability of below normal temps out for the next week or so, but when I look at any weather apps or even the NWS official temps nobody is biting on < 32F for DFW. So it's "cold" but really just seasonably so. Average first official freeze date is ~2 weeks out, so definitely getting in range of when we'd expect this kind of weather.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022
DallasAg wrote:Ntxw wrote:Quick update still expecting several cold fronts in succession. Don't rely too heavily on the OPs just yet, stick to the ensembles for now. It's still one of the better cool/cold stretches in a long while.
Are we talking first official freeze for the DFW UHI? Seems like the CPC outlooks are showing high probability of below normal temps out for the next week or so, but when I look at any weather apps or even the NWS official temps nobody is biting on < 32F for DFW. So it's "cold" but really just seasonably so. Average first official freeze date is ~2 weeks out, so definitely getting in range of when we'd expect this kind of weather.
Weather apps and official forecasts are always conservative when it’s still a few days away with these types of events.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022
DallasAg wrote:Ntxw wrote:Quick update still expecting several cold fronts in succession. Don't rely too heavily on the OPs just yet, stick to the ensembles for now. It's still one of the better cool/cold stretches in a long while.
Are we talking first official freeze for the DFW UHI? Seems like the CPC outlooks are showing high probability of below normal temps out for the next week or so, but when I look at any weather apps or even the NWS official temps nobody is biting on < 32F for DFW. So it's "cold" but really just seasonably so. Average first official freeze date is ~2 weeks out, so definitely getting in range of when we'd expect this kind of weather.
Likely most will this coming Saturday. Next week should be colder, of course UHI always fights it but I think it will give in.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022
Iceresistance wrote:cstrunk wrote:Iceresistance wrote:Wait a minute! The Euro is showing snow for my area! (KFOR likes to rely on the Euro model for snow)
https://s1.gifyu.com/images/Screenshot-2022-11-08-7.41.13-AM.png
https://s1.gifyu.com/images/Screenshot-2022-11-08-7.41.13-AM.png
I'm not seeing most of these images you are trying to share lately. On my computer on Chrome.
I have the link set up, is it blocked on your screen? I also have a Chrome and it's working fine with me.
It must be the firewall at my work. It works on my Android. Carry on!
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Re: Texas Fall 2022
Brent wrote::eek:
this is inside 7 days
https://i.ibb.co/8xqnKHW/A7524-C24-EC85-45-E6-B00-F-CB513-F51-D4-A0.png
I’m afraid the cold pattern will flip back to warm in late November. Guess we’ll see.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022
Cpv17 wrote:I’m afraid the cold pattern will flip back to warm in late November.
Thank goodness.
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Brent
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Re: Texas Fall 2022
Cpv17 wrote:Brent wrote::eek:
https://i.ibb.co/8xqnKHW/A7524-C24-EC85-45-E6-B00-F-CB513-F51-D4-A0.png
I’m afraid the cold pattern will flip back to warm in late November. Guess we’ll see.
I mean I guess it can't stay cold all winter but I'm not so sure I'm believing a warm pattern I guess we'll see
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Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Fall 2022
Brent wrote::eek:
https://i.ibb.co/8xqnKHW/A7524-C24-EC85-45-E6-B00-F-CB513-F51-D4-A0.png
The 0z and 6z GEFS are showing the same thing as well!
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
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Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
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Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
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Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Fall 2022
Brent wrote:Cpv17 wrote:Brent wrote::eek:
https://i.ibb.co/8xqnKHW/A7524-C24-EC85-45-E6-B00-F-CB513-F51-D4-A0.png
I’m afraid the cold pattern will flip back to warm in late November. Guess we’ll see.
I mean I guess it can't stay cold all winter but I'm not so sure I'm believing a warm pattern I guess we'll see
We may get a warm December again, only to be countered in January/February.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Re: Texas Fall 2022
Forecast is starting to follow suit and get colder. Next few days will need to watch the impulses and see how storms eject, might be a couple of opportunities for winter weather. NTX is kind of a longshot, but not impossible, for sure your usual suspects of NW TX and Oklahoma.
Do agree with ridge eventual retrogression the SE ridge will pop but that's not death kneel for us. We'll go back and forth between cool and mild, but it's not a sustained warm pattern with ridging going through the Bering vs south of Aleutians. That kind of ridge backpedaling keeps Canada frigid for December.
Do agree with ridge eventual retrogression the SE ridge will pop but that's not death kneel for us. We'll go back and forth between cool and mild, but it's not a sustained warm pattern with ridging going through the Bering vs south of Aleutians. That kind of ridge backpedaling keeps Canada frigid for December.
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Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Fall 2022
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
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Re: Texas Fall 2022
For mid November Euro is about as nice as you can ask for, for the cold mongers. Pinwheeling PV up north, big PNA/EPO ridge and shortwave lagging the east-central trough.
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HockeyTx82
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Re: Texas Fall 2022
Ntxw wrote:For mid November Euro is about as nice as you can ask for, for the cold mongers. Pinwheeling PV up north, big PNA/EPO ridge and shortwave lagging the east-central trough.
Does it have staying power? Do analogs suggest that this type of pattern now indicates a cold winter ahead?
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Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)
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Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Fall 2022
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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HockeyTx82
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Re: Texas Fall 2022
Iceresistance wrote::double:
https://s1.gifyu.com/images/prbww_sn25_DAY6_conus.gif
https://s1.gifyu.com/images/prbww_sn25_DAY6_conus.gif
EVERYBODY PANIC!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Don't hold me accountable for anything I post on this forum. Leave the real forecasting up to the professionals.
Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)
Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)
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