ATL: NICOLE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#661 Postby GCANE » Tue Nov 08, 2022 1:49 pm

About a half pink donut.
Very cool hook lightning pattern firing along the feeder band

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_ ... p0.1p0.jpg
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#662 Postby Kat5 » Tue Nov 08, 2022 1:49 pm

Nuno wrote:
AutoPenalti wrote:Just saw on CBS that Broward is in the clear and that Hurricane watches may be lifted by tonight...

That's really bad reporting.


This thing is diving way further south way sooner. Why would anyone make such a decision? Is this a local govt call?



Seems like it’s still moving due west at the moment.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#663 Postby SFLcane » Tue Nov 08, 2022 1:52 pm

eastcoastFL wrote:
AutoPenalti wrote:Just saw on CBS that Broward is in the clear and that Hurricane watches may be lifted by tonight...

That's really bad reporting.

Sounds pretty irresponsible but I guess they're going with the idea that most of the weather will be north of the storm.


Sounds about right on the current forecast track dade and broward will not see hurricane conditions actually might not even see sustain TS winds. Breezy to windy rainy weather. By the way after looking closer at the advisory the hurricane warning down to boca is only for areas right at the coast so many of us inland that does not apply.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#664 Postby tropicwatch » Tue Nov 08, 2022 1:53 pm

Looking like an upcoming shift southward for the forecast cone if this continues.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#665 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 08, 2022 1:58 pm

Closer view shows a well organized Nicole. The fist.

Image
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#666 Postby eastcoastFL » Tue Nov 08, 2022 1:58 pm

SFLcane wrote:
eastcoastFL wrote:
AutoPenalti wrote:Just saw on CBS that Broward is in the clear and that Hurricane watches may be lifted by tonight...

That's really bad reporting.

Sounds pretty irresponsible but I guess they're going with the idea that most of the weather will be north of the storm.


Sounds about right on the current forecast track dade and broward will not see hurricane conditions actually might not even see sustain TS winds. Breezy to windy rainy weather. By the way after looking closer at the advisory the hurricane warning down to boca is only for areas right at the coast so many of us inland that does not apply.


I agree. I think the odds are very slim that this would come in south of Broward. I'm in Martin county and I don't expect much if it does end up coming in to my north in Palm Bay. Which I sure hope is the case.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#667 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Tue Nov 08, 2022 1:59 pm

There might be an eye appearing. Nicole is definitely improving.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#668 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue Nov 08, 2022 2:01 pm

eastcoastFL wrote:
SFLcane wrote:
eastcoastFL wrote:Sounds pretty irresponsible but I guess they're going with the idea that most of the weather will be north of the storm.


Sounds about right on the current forecast track dade and broward will not see hurricane conditions actually might not even see sustain TS winds. Breezy to windy rainy weather. By the way after looking closer at the advisory the hurricane warning down to boca is only for areas right at the coast so many of us inland that does not apply.


I agree. I think the odds are very slim that this would come in south of Broward. I'm in Martin county and I don't expect much if it does end up coming in to my north in Palm Bay. Which I sure hope is the case.

The GEFS 12z has members into Broward. So the odds are a bit higher than slim IMO.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#669 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Tue Nov 08, 2022 2:03 pm

I wouldn't be shocked if Nicole ends up being a hurricane sooner than any of us anticipated. This is a remarkable improvement over yesterday.

Image
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#670 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 08, 2022 2:04 pm

Flood watch issued for parts of South Florida.

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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#671 Postby eastcoastFL » Tue Nov 08, 2022 2:04 pm

cycloneye wrote:Closer view shows a well organized Nicole. The fist.

https://i.imgur.com/ueab5oL.gif


Wow. She's really coming together nicely.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#672 Postby eastcoastFL » Tue Nov 08, 2022 2:07 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:
eastcoastFL wrote:
SFLcane wrote:
Sounds about right on the current forecast track dade and broward will not see hurricane conditions actually might not even see sustain TS winds. Breezy to windy rainy weather. By the way after looking closer at the advisory the hurricane warning down to boca is only for areas right at the coast so many of us inland that does not apply.


I agree. I think the odds are very slim that this would come in south of Broward. I'm in Martin county and I don't expect much if it does end up coming in to my north in Palm Bay. Which I sure hope is the case.

The GEFS 12z has members into Broward. So the odds are a bit higher than slim IMO.


The NHC track is over 100 miles north from the Broward PBC line so the odds are still pretty slim that the storm makes landfall south of Broward County. Just look at the odds for hurricane force winds in broward...they're quite slim.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#673 Postby MetroMike » Tue Nov 08, 2022 2:10 pm

This lightning capture shows it is intensifying
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#674 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue Nov 08, 2022 2:12 pm

eastcoastFL wrote:
AutoPenalti wrote:
eastcoastFL wrote:
I agree. I think the odds are very slim that this would come in south of Broward. I'm in Martin county and I don't expect much if it does end up coming in to my north in Palm Bay. Which I sure hope is the case.

The GEFS 12z has members into Broward. So the odds are a bit higher than slim IMO.


The NHC track is over 100 miles north from the Broward PBC line so the odds are still pretty slim that the storm makes landfall south of Broward County. Just look at the odds for hurricane force winds in broward...they're quite slim.

Track package is updated at 10am, the GEFS ensembles (and other models, including the OP) did not update until the following hour. A south shift is likely by the next full advisory.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#675 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 08, 2022 2:13 pm

Comparison between Nicole and Epsilon come to the discussion on social media.

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1590058116896690177


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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#676 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Tue Nov 08, 2022 2:19 pm

A major hurricane may still be possible with Nicole. That gulf current is no joke.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#677 Postby jlauderdal » Tue Nov 08, 2022 2:19 pm

eastcoastFL wrote:
AutoPenalti wrote:
eastcoastFL wrote:
I agree. I think the odds are very slim that this would come in south of Broward. I'm in Martin county and I don't expect much if it does end up coming in to my north in Palm Bay. Which I sure hope is the case.

The GEFS 12z has members into Broward. So the odds are a bit higher than slim IMO.


The NHC track is over 100 miles north from the Broward PBC line so the odds are still pretty slim that the storm makes landfall south of Broward County. Just look at the odds for hurricane force winds in broward...they're quite slim.

Those odds will be increasing in the next package and into tomorrow as the storm gets closer and the track adjusts south.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#678 Postby Blown Away » Tue Nov 08, 2022 2:20 pm

Image
Wow, is Nicole really diving faster??
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Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…

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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#679 Postby Kat5 » Tue Nov 08, 2022 2:22 pm

When is the next recon?
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#680 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 08, 2022 2:27 pm

Kat5 wrote:When is the next recon?


Around 3 PM EST departs the Air Force plane.

FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 71

AFXXX 0917A NICOLE
08/2000Z
27.6N 74.0W
08/2300Z TO 09/0530Z
FIX
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