ATL: NICOLE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

About a half pink donut.
Very cool hook lightning pattern firing along the feeder band

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_ ... p0.1p0.jpg

[Kat5]

Just saw on CBS that Broward is in the clear and that Hurricane watches may be lifted by tonight...

That's really bad reporting.

This thing is diving way further south way sooner. Why would anyone make such a decision? Is this a local govt call?

Seems like it’s still moving due west at the moment.

[SFLcane]

Just saw on CBS that Broward is in the clear and that Hurricane watches may be lifted by tonight...

That's really bad reporting.

Sounds pretty irresponsible but I guess they're going with the idea that most of the weather will be north of the storm.

Sounds about right on the current forecast track dade and broward will not see hurricane conditions actually might not even see sustain TS winds. Breezy to windy rainy weather. By the way after looking closer at the advisory the hurricane warning down to boca is only for areas right at the coast so many of us inland that does not apply.

[tropicwatch]

Looking like an upcoming shift southward for the forecast cone if this continues.

[cycloneye]

Closer view shows a well organized Nicole. The fist.

[eastcoastFL]

Just saw on CBS that Broward is in the clear and that Hurricane watches may be lifted by tonight...

That's really bad reporting.

Sounds pretty irresponsible but I guess they're going with the idea that most of the weather will be north of the storm.

Sounds about right on the current forecast track dade and broward will not see hurricane conditions actually might not even see sustain TS winds. Breezy to windy rainy weather. By the way after looking closer at the advisory the hurricane warning down to boca is only for areas right at the coast so many of us inland that does not apply.

I agree. I think the odds are very slim that this would come in south of Broward. I'm in Martin county and I don't expect much if it does end up coming in to my north in Palm Bay. Which I sure hope is the case.

[InfernoFlameCat]

There might be an eye appearing. Nicole is definitely improving.

[AutoPenalti]

Sounds pretty irresponsible but I guess they're going with the idea that most of the weather will be north of the storm.

Sounds about right on the current forecast track dade and broward will not see hurricane conditions actually might not even see sustain TS winds. Breezy to windy rainy weather. By the way after looking closer at the advisory the hurricane warning down to boca is only for areas right at the coast so many of us inland that does not apply.

I agree. I think the odds are very slim that this would come in south of Broward. I'm in Martin county and I don't expect much if it does end up coming in to my north in Palm Bay. Which I sure hope is the case.

The GEFS 12z has members into Broward. So the odds are a bit higher than slim IMO.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I wouldn't be shocked if Nicole ends up being a hurricane sooner than any of us anticipated. This is a remarkable improvement over yesterday.

[cycloneye]

Flood watch issued for parts of South Florida.

[eastcoastFL]

Closer view shows a well organized Nicole. The fist.

https://i.imgur.com/ueab5oL.gif

Wow. She's really coming together nicely.

[eastcoastFL]

Sounds about right on the current forecast track dade and broward will not see hurricane conditions actually might not even see sustain TS winds. Breezy to windy rainy weather. By the way after looking closer at the advisory the hurricane warning down to boca is only for areas right at the coast so many of us inland that does not apply.

I agree. I think the odds are very slim that this would come in south of Broward. I'm in Martin county and I don't expect much if it does end up coming in to my north in Palm Bay. Which I sure hope is the case.

The GEFS 12z has members into Broward. So the odds are a bit higher than slim IMO.

The NHC track is over 100 miles north from the Broward PBC line so the odds are still pretty slim that the storm makes landfall south of Broward County. Just look at the odds for hurricane force winds in broward...they're quite slim.

[MetroMike]

This lightning capture shows it is intensifying

[AutoPenalti]

I agree. I think the odds are very slim that this would come in south of Broward. I'm in Martin county and I don't expect much if it does end up coming in to my north in Palm Bay. Which I sure hope is the case.

The GEFS 12z has members into Broward. So the odds are a bit higher than slim IMO.

The NHC track is over 100 miles north from the Broward PBC line so the odds are still pretty slim that the storm makes landfall south of Broward County. Just look at the odds for hurricane force winds in broward...they're quite slim.

Track package is updated at 10am, the GEFS ensembles (and other models, including the OP) did not update until the following hour. A south shift is likely by the next full advisory.

[cycloneye]

Comparison between Nicole and Epsilon come to the discussion on social media.

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1590058116896690177

[InfernoFlameCat]

A major hurricane may still be possible with Nicole. That gulf current is no joke.

[jlauderdal]

I agree. I think the odds are very slim that this would come in south of Broward. I'm in Martin county and I don't expect much if it does end up coming in to my north in Palm Bay. Which I sure hope is the case.

The GEFS 12z has members into Broward. So the odds are a bit higher than slim IMO.

The NHC track is over 100 miles north from the Broward PBC line so the odds are still pretty slim that the storm makes landfall south of Broward County. Just look at the odds for hurricane force winds in broward...they're quite slim.

Those odds will be increasing in the next package and into tomorrow as the storm gets closer and the track adjusts south.

[Blown Away]

Wow, is Nicole really diving faster??

[Kat5]

When is the next recon?

[cycloneye]

When is the next recon?

Around 3 PM EST departs the Air Force plane.

FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 71

AFXXX 0917A NICOLE
08/2000Z
27.6N 74.0W
08/2300Z TO 09/0530Z
FIX