ATL: NICOLE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#621 Postby Jr0d » Tue Nov 08, 2022 10:33 am

fsucory08 wrote:I agree, and like I said in my previous post, look at the 12z Icon. It has fallen in line close to the Euro/GFS solution of Martin/SLC. I am preparing for a direct hit here I just hope others in SLC are doing the same


Despite this becoming "fully tropical" it still will be lopsided with tropical storm force winds hundreds of miles north of the center, and maybe 50 miles south.

This makes a huge difference for your area. It is interesting than the Icon shifted south while others went north(though many ensembles remain south as discussed by the NHC).

I am clueless to where this will eventually make landfall, and eagerly waiting the WSW to SW motion. Hopefully by tomorrow morning we will have a good idea of the exact landfall as we should have an idea of how far south Nichole will be pushed.

If you look at the "Yankee" storm of 1935, it went almost due south until the Bahamas before going west. While the accuracy of the track is questionable, I do find that interesting even though it is not relevant to whats happening with Nichole.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#622 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 08, 2022 10:44 am

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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#623 Postby aspen » Tue Nov 08, 2022 10:57 am

AF306 has been sitting on the pad for like 5 hours now. I’m guessing yet another before-flight technical error grounded it. I was hoping they’d send out another available plane — they did that with a previous storm — but that didn’t happen. When’s the next scheduled flight?
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#624 Postby Hurricane Mike » Tue Nov 08, 2022 10:57 am

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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#625 Postby GCANE » Tue Nov 08, 2022 11:04 am

GCANE wrote:I hope this doesn't turn out where this is sitting in the middle of a PV ring

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... oom=&time=


Latest GFS is showing it may happen when Nicole is in the GoM
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... atl_10.png
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#626 Postby jdray » Tue Nov 08, 2022 11:07 am

NWS JAX has a pretty good graphic on potential impacts for the NE Florida/SE Georgia area. Same with NWS Melbourne

 https://twitter.com/NWSJacksonville/status/1589946207580827648




 https://twitter.com/NWSMelbourne/status/1589935597900419073


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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#627 Postby tolakram » Tue Nov 08, 2022 11:09 am

[youtube]https://youtu.be/bfuzzrCbIWg[/youtube]
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#628 Postby tolakram » Tue Nov 08, 2022 11:10 am

[youtube]https://youtu.be/zYCKFuSPcE4[/youtube]
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#629 Postby Hurricaneman » Tue Nov 08, 2022 11:15 am

Looks like it could be one of those small core systems on approach within a larger storm envelop
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#630 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 08, 2022 11:16 am

Good message from the Melbourne NWS folks.

 https://twitter.com/NWSMelbourne/status/1590012474623152129


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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#631 Postby tropicwatch » Tue Nov 08, 2022 11:18 am

aspen wrote:AF306 has been sitting on the pad for like 5 hours now. I’m guessing yet another before-flight technical error grounded it. I was hoping they’d send out another available plane — they did that with a previous storm — but that didn’t happen. When’s the next scheduled flight?


The next one scheduled, takes off at 2pm central time.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#632 Postby cheezyWXguy » Tue Nov 08, 2022 11:22 am

Nicole looks like it’s doing a good job of getting stacked this morning. Deepest convection looks to be just about over the center now
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#633 Postby jonj2040 » Tue Nov 08, 2022 11:25 am

is there something going on with the goes 16 slider page? Or GOES 16 itself? it has not been updated since before dawn from what I can see. it says 9:40 UTC but I'm not sure if that is shifted for a specific time zone. . .
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#634 Postby Ian2401 » Tue Nov 08, 2022 11:37 am

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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#635 Postby Sciencerocks » Tue Nov 08, 2022 12:07 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#636 Postby Hurricaneman » Tue Nov 08, 2022 12:08 pm



Looks like a large storm with a forming small inner core
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#637 Postby Category5Kaiju » Tue Nov 08, 2022 12:09 pm

Nicole clearly diving WSW at this point
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#638 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 08, 2022 12:09 pm

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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#639 Postby GCANE » Tue Nov 08, 2022 12:13 pm

Strengthening UL Low at 20N 40W will reinforce a poleward outflow channel for Nicole
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#640 Postby Coolcruiseman » Tue Nov 08, 2022 12:28 pm

Brevard County schools closed tomorrow and Thursday.
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