ATL: NICOLE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

Outflow boundaries moving south.
Not the killer kind, but the one associated with strong downdrafts from strong convection.

[Michele B]

From CIMSS, vorts thru 500mb are looking a lot better.
Nicole is shaking off the UL Low and associated PV Streamer is nearly gone.
The stacking started yesterday afternoon as I noted by the cloud-tops temps cooling down and the swirl making a CCW rotation.
The eye drop from recon shows a somewhat dry core at 69% RH @ 850mb.
Once this starts to moisten up, Nicole should be a full TS.

Cantore on TWC just stated he wouldn't be surprised to see a hurricane by the time it makes landfall.

[eastcoastFL]

First peek of visible imagery today and it’s getting there

[jaxfladude]

Time for me to say:
"Fellow Floridians, and associated East Coasters, everyone pay attention to your local and regional and national authorities, lastly and importantly let's all stay safe out there...."

[ObsessedMiami]

Joe Bastardi this morning sticking to his guns this will be a Cat 2 at landfall, even potentially a Cat 3. Likes the track but not the forecast intensity.

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1589942719035899907?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

[GCANE]

New eye drop 98% RH @ 850mb
All cylinders starting to fire
Chalk it up to the hot tower

That moisture is really starting to fan out around the system. I wonder if it will fill in more on the south side as it develops a tropical core. So far everything is consolidated to the north of the storm.

Entraining tons of high TPW air.
All the way from the EPAC and mid-Atlantic ITCZ

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... anim=html5

[cycloneye]

JB take on intensity.

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1589942719035899907

[jlauderdal]

JB take on intensity.

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1589942719035899907

JB has done well with this system from his first prediction about its genesis, that was a big win if this thing gets to a 2, its another win for him.

[eastcoastFL]

With the track trending north of us now my kids are worried that school will be uncancelled…I don’t think they do that after announcing that they will be closed. Kids might just end up with a nice 5 day weekend now.

[eastcoastFL]

JB take on intensity.

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1589942719035899907

JB has done well with this system from his first prediction about its genesis, that was a big win if this thing gets to a 2, its another win for him.

I see the possibility in it making it to a Cat 2 but the NHC hasn’t even hinted at it, their intensity forecast hasn’t really budged at all. They have it barely reaching cat 1 still at 75MPH landfall.

[jlauderdal]

With the track trending north of us now my kids are worried that school will be uncancelled…I don’t think they do that after announcing that they will be closed. Kids might just end up with a nice 5 day weekend now.

Kids nightmare, cancel then un-cancel school, they aren't going to do that and the trend is north but no way is Palm Bay in the clear.

[AutoPenalti]

I did mention earlier that the possibility of this being further south in the short term meant a bit less of a SW turn in the longer turn.

[jaxfladude]

JB take on intensity.

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1589942719035899907

This guy has guts and thick skin.
He doesn't back down in his thinking of whatever system or pattern or what have you....and if he misses he says so....IMHO.

[Michele B]

I knew somehow the SFL shield would hold up. It’s really unbelievable to see every time. We should see minimal impacts here down here.

I'm liking the trends even up in Saint Lucie County. If I had my druthers, I would be S of the center. But, we shall see.

Me too. South of center is looking like the place to be.

SouthWEST of center here - Ian territory....

In convo's with friends and neighbors last night, many are concerned about winds and rain in our area.

Anybody want to venture a guess what we might experience? One woman I talked to has much of her roof missing and living with tarps.. She is terrified it will flap and flap until it flies away and MORE damage is done to her home.

Also with all the debris laying around, some are concerned things could go airborne. Personally, I don't think we'll see anything more than 45 or 50 mph, but then Cantore says "huge windfield...." and I wonder if I'm being too optimistic.

[fsucory08]

With the track trending north of us now my kids are worried that school will be uncancelled…I don’t think they do that after announcing that they will be closed. Kids might just end up with a nice 5 day weekend now.

Kids nightmare, cancel then un-cancel school, they aren't going to do that and the trend is north but no way is Palm Bay in the clear.

I'm in PSL and even a slight shift back south puts us right back under the gun so to speak. Curious to see the runs for the rest of the day

[GCANE]

Saw a short-duration hot spot next to a tower just north of the CoC

[cycloneye]

The wind field is contracting.

 https://twitter.com/CraigSetzer/status/1589964454313095169

[skillz305]

With the track trending north of us now my kids are worried that school will be uncancelled…I don’t think they do that after announcing that they will be closed. Kids might just end up with a nice 5 day weekend now.

Kids nightmare, cancel then un-cancel school, they aren't going to do that and the trend is north but no way is Palm Bay in the clear.

I'm in PSL and even a slight shift back south puts us right back under the gun so to speak. Curious to see the runs for the rest of the day

Landfall is pinpointed between PSL and Palm Bay…

[aspen]

The second center fix shows Nicole is moving very, very slowly to the NW. It should start making its turn to the SW soon.

[Michele B]

JB take on intensity.

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1589942719035899907

This guy has guts and thick skin.
He doesn't back down in his thinking of whatever system or pattern or what have you....and if he misses he says so....IMHO.

I've followed and trusted JB for at least a decade and more. I trust his judgment for hurricanes more than most anyone else I listen to.