ATL: NICOLE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tropicwatch]

Kind of weird. NOAA does one low altitude pass through the center then does the rest of the mission around 24000 ft. It has done this on two missions today.

so what does that tell you ?

Checking the other levels.

[Poonwalker]

I think tomorrow there will be shutters, you are closer to anticipated landfall than me, I expect shutters to appear here tomorrow.

Landfall is about 2 miles south of me. But I'm debating shutters. I don't think I've put shutters up for a cat1. Is it necessary?

Most insurance policies can decline to cover you if you don't put up shutters but have them down and take on damage.

If you have them I would use them. Despite the cat rating these things can easily spawn tornadoes. My brothers Largo office got windows blasted out in a tropical storm by stuff thrown by a tornado.

[eastcoastFL]

To me the logic for a landfall near Miami all hinges on how much of a southwest turn she makes. It’s still a unknown. Remember for 48 hours all we heard was landfall in Tampa hundreds of thousands evacuated all to end up being a Fort Meyers/Naples event. Don’t drink the koolade just yet. !!

That would be quite a swing in track 48 hours out.

Just look at what Ian did but aside from that the storm is still projected to curve southwest a 20 mile jog almost changes everything and we are not there yet. Mark this post the gulfstream has a mind of its own even once it makes that dip.

Anything is possible that’s for sure. Right now though miami is about 100 miles south of the NHC track.

[jfk08c]

Kind of weird. NOAA does one low altitude pass through the center then does the rest of the mission around 24000 ft. It has done this on two missions today.

so what does that tell you ?

Subtropical systems develop differently than a tropical system. Usually starts from the top atmospheric levels and works downward

[cane5]

That would be quite a swing in track 48 hours out.

Just look at what Ian did but aside from that the storm is still projected to curve southwest a 20 mile jog almost changes everything and we are not there yet. Mark this post the gulfstream has a mind of its own even once it makes that dip.

Anything is possible that’s for sure. Right now though miami is about 100 miles south of the NHC track.

Hallandale is 2 minutes from Miami and they are under a Hurricane watch. It hasn’t even developed yet and models were off 100 miles with Ian. Anyway I live in Miami I know about storms that are under a choking high pressure ridge and in the Gulfstream. My hope is we lose power for a day and impacts are minimal.

[TheHurricaneGod]

Fort lauderdale should be on the southern side of Nicole so the winds shouldn't be too bad, unless it ended up like a high end cat 1/low end cat 2

[cane5]

Kind of weird. NOAA does one low altitude pass through the center then does the rest of the mission around 24000 ft. It has done this on two missions today.

so what does that tell you ?

Subtropical systems develop differently than a tropical system. Usually starts from the top atmospheric levels and works downward

Now I see what you were driving at makes sense in a way.

[gatorcane]

Here is the observation data for a buoy a little NW of the storm. Notable pressure drop and winds on the increase:

[cane5]

Dr Knabb just made a great point the gradient just multiplies the effects of the storm in general. So where you are not in the cone you still get a double shot of Nicole , a one two punch.

[eastcoastFL]

Just look at what Ian did but aside from that the storm is still projected to curve southwest a 20 mile jog almost changes everything and we are not there yet. Mark this post the gulfstream has a mind of its own even once it makes that dip.

Anything is possible that’s for sure. Right now though miami is about 100 miles south of the NHC track.

Hallandale is 2 minutes from Miami and they are under a Hurricane watch. It hasn’t even developed yet and models were off 100 miles with Ian. Anyway I live in Miami I know about storms that are under a choking high pressure ridge and in the Gulfstream. My hope is we lose power for a day and impacts are minimal.

Currently the track passes about 2 miles from my house. I’m hoping it trends further north. It looks like the worst of Nicole will be north of the center so if I had a say in it I would ask her to kindly pass north of my area. The effects will be pretty widespread with a storm this big so hope for all of us it stays weak.

[sponger]

Here is the observation data for a buoy a little NW of the storm. Notable pressure drop and winds on the increase:

Too funny, the one thing I can do in metric only is barometric pressure!

[Sciencerocks]

[psyclone]

I wonder if maybe they go ahead with a ts warning at 10 PM on the east coast and leave the hurricane watch as is to see how the storm behaves. Gales look to be a lock for a long time for sure. What a beach wrecker with full moon tides. Might see some ts watches on the gulf coast too...maybe Englewood up to suwannee river as a WAG..

[Lightning48]

When might watches and warnings go up in the Tampa/ St. Petersburg and what effects can be expected?

[blp]

Starting to ramp up!

[GCANE]

18Z GFS showing a dramatic strengthening off Long Island as compared to previous runs

[eastcoastFL]

I wonder if maybe they go ahead with a ts warning at 10 PM on the east coast and leave the hurricane watch as is to see how the storm behaves. Gales look to be a lock for a long time for sure. What a beach wrecker with full moon tides. Might see some ts watches on the gulf coast too...maybe Englewood up to suwannee river as a WAG..

They already have a TS warning and hurricane watch up together here. We are currently under both in Martin county.

[eastcoastFL]

I wonder if maybe they go ahead with a ts warning at 10 PM on the east coast and leave the hurricane watch as is to see how the storm behaves. Gales look to be a lock for a long time for sure. What a beach wrecker with full moon tides. Might see some ts watches on the gulf coast too...maybe Englewood up to suwannee river as a WAG..

[eastcoastFL]

[psyclone]

I wonder if maybe they go ahead with a ts warning at 10 PM on the east coast and leave the hurricane watch as is to see how the storm behaves. Gales look to be a lock for a long time for sure. What a beach wrecker with full moon tides. Might see some ts watches on the gulf coast too...maybe Englewood up to suwannee river as a WAG..

They already have a TS warning and hurricane watch up together here. We are currently under both in Martin county.

Oh my how did I miss that! I need to pay closer attention!