ATL: NICOLE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[AutoPenalti]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1589720595532763136

[blp]

Interesting to see if this just rotates back around quickly. Euro showed this loop but it was very brief as it continued heading NW. I imagine any continued lack of northerly progression may bring the track slightly south. It looks like the SW dive is becoming less pronounced on the runs.

See below. This is starting to miss the track.

[Laser30033003]

I don't want to see Nicole stay low and get back into the gulf around Port Charlotte
...then ride up the West coast as it picks up strength ....

[sponger]

I got to agree with JB! Serious risk of a Cat 2 if this transitions early enough. Should have good outflow and plenty of warm water to feed on.

[Patrick99]

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1589720595532763136

Normally I would agree with this, but looking at all the dry air, I'm getting less bullish. May end up being one of those "strong swirl" type storms that don't really have much convection.

[SFLcane]

Track is almost right over my house. Palm beach should be under hurricane warning tommorow.

[sponger]

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1589720595532763136

Normally I would agree with this, but looking at all the dry air, I'm getting less bullish. May end up being one of those "strong swirl" type storms that don't really have much convection.

A fair point but can the models be that bad at predicting dry air intrusion?

Edit That is a ton of dry air!!! Wow!!!

https://www.iweathernet.com/satellite-i ... oop-3-days

[Category5Kaiju]

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1589720595532763136

Normally I would agree with this, but looking at all the dry air, I'm getting less bullish. May end up being one of those "strong swirl" type storms that don't really have much convection.

While yes this is true, sometimes storms that look like garbage (as we saw with Ian notoriously earlier this season) can get their act together even if they just so happen to enter a localized area of favorable conditions. We may never know for certain how Nicole will behave. It's also something that has been mentioned before, but there interestingly have been quite a number of westward bending storms, east of the Bahamas, that went on to become notable storms in the past.

I may sound a bit bullish here, but I'd rather utilize caution that not considering the crazy storm shenanigans that the many recent years have featured. I feel like more times than not, there have been storms that simply defied initial expectations and went on to become very impactful.

[cycloneye]

4 PM EST track.

[StAuggy]

Looking at the NHC forecast points I see 24 hours between 65mph and 75 mph and that’s not up to landfall yet. I realize it’s a large system with some inhibitors in place but given the other factors like low shear and warm water that will be conducive to some strengthening… that seems like an awful lot of time to only bump up 10 mph. Any thoughts on that?

[cane5]

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1589720595532763136

Normally I would agree with this, but looking at all the dry air, I'm getting less bullish. May end up being one of those "strong swirl" type storms that don't really have much convection.

Former NHC and noted commentator on the WC ( forgot his name) said it will be disappearing soon.

[StAuggy]

I also want to mention that after reading some discussions here of this taking a slightly more direct route to FL rather than a big bend that this will most certainly be arriving sooner than prev forecast. If people aren’t paying attention yet that window is going to shrink even faster

[Nimbus]

I also want to mention that after reading some discussions here of this taking a slightly more direct route to FL rather than a big bend that this will most certainly be arriving sooner than prev forecast. If people aren’t paying attention yet that window is going to shrink even faster

Also would mean it would arrive further south so Dade county could be without power if the pressure drops down into the 980's. Could be a real mess if it reaches cat 1 because of all the beach infrastructure.
Most of the models have Dade on the southern weak side of the circulation currently.

[ObsessedMiami]

Looking at the NHC forecast points I see 24 hours between 65mph and 75 mph and that’s not up to landfall yet. I realize it’s a large system with some inhibitors in place but given the other factors like low shear and warm water that will be conducive to some strengthening… that seems like an awful lot of time to only bump up 10 mph. Any thoughts on that?

I was trying to Square in my mind the later arrival of the H plot point yet the onset of TS winds remained the same (Wednesday 6am). It makes sense if it’s close to hurricane status that long prior

[cane5]

Newsflash Mike Siedel of the WC reporting from Vero Beach !!!!

[jlauderdal]

Newsflash Mike Siedel of the WC reporting from Vero Beach !!!!

Good starting point, easy drive down 95

[cycloneye]

GOES-16 data is running behind and images may be delayed. per tropical tidbits.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/

[Hurricane Mike]

I still think we don't see much consolidation until Wednesday.

[Coolcruiseman]

Newsflash Mike Siedel of the WC reporting from Vero Beach !!!!

Now the question becomes where is Jim Cantore reporting from? As long as it's further south I feel I'm good.

[stormhunter7]

I'm almost certain that S-TS Nicole stalled today around lunchtime and actually went south and maybe SE. ?