ATL: NICOLE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Pressure falling slowly. Recon found 1000 mbs extrapolated.

[AutoPenalti]

1000mb extrap, pressure falling slightly.

[skillz305]

Serious question, since I live in Vero Beach. What are the odds this storm rapidly intensifies in a stronger than cat 1 hurricane? I know it’s only 2-3 days out and might not have the time to. But as of how much it’s developed today in regards to what it’s estimated to be by this time. Is there any margin of error that we could be blindsided by a cat 2/3? Or is that scenario simply not possible and out the window?

[CrazyC83]

Serious question, since I live in Vero Beach. What are the odds this storm rapidly intensifies in a stronger than cat 1 hurricane? I know it’s only 2-3 days out and might not have the time to. But as of how much it’s developed today in regards to what it’s estimated to be by this time. Is there any margin of error that we could be blindsided by a cat 2/3? Or is that scenario simply not possible and out the window?

I wouldn't say it is impossible, but it would need to get a lot better organized in the short term to do so.

[robbielyn]

Serious question, since I live in Vero Beach. What are the odds this storm rapidly intensifies in a stronger than cat 1 hurricane? I know it’s only 2-3 days out and might not have the time to. But as of how much it’s developed today in regards to what it’s estimated to be by this time. Is there any margin of error that we could be blindsided by a cat 2/3? Or is that scenario simply not possible and out the window?

not really. dry air will keep it at a 1. however, never say never but most likely not.

[Hurricane Mike]

2pm Video Update on Nicole
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uNe5u7cLFWE

[Weatherboy1]

Serious question, since I live in Vero Beach. What are the odds this storm rapidly intensifies in a stronger than cat 1 hurricane? I know it’s only 2-3 days out and might not have the time to. But as of how much it’s developed today in regards to what it’s estimated to be by this time. Is there any margin of error that we could be blindsided by a cat 2/3? Or is that scenario simply not possible and out the window?

I would be VERY surprised by that, and as someone who lives in Jupiter, I clearly have an interest in monitoring Nicole closely. I will say that her circulation appears to be tightening up today on satellite. But convection still not that impressive … and until we see that happen around the LLC, significant intensification is unlikely IMO

[AutoPenalti]

Last reading had this at 26.34 N 70.10 W, which is south west of the NHC position. I saw some modeling solutions with the further north being furthest south later in the run while the quicker and further south solutions move further north... perhaps a shift north by 18z?

[GCANE]

Looks like that strong convection is driving the swirl almost directly south.

[ObsessedMiami]

Have to say this is the quietest thread I have seen here in a long time with a Florida landfalling hurricane within 3 days

[AdamFirst]

Have to say this is the quietest thread I have seen here in a long time with a Florida landfalling hurricane within 3 days

It's November. A lot of people caught by surprise. I had my stepmother and sister text me about it this morning

[Camerooski]

Last reading had this at 26.34 N 70.10 W, which is south west of the NHC position. I saw some modeling solutions with the further north being furthest south later in the run while the quicker and further south solutions move further north... perhaps a shift north by 18z?

Not sure that makes sense, less latitude in the short term should result in a more S solution.

[GCANE]

I think the swirl is starting to rotate around the ML vort.
It may be starting to stack.

[cycloneye]

Looks like that strong convection is driving the swirl almost directly south.

Is moving at 310 degrees NW per recon.

[Category5Kaiju]

Serious question, since I live in Vero Beach. What are the odds this storm rapidly intensifies in a stronger than cat 1 hurricane? I know it’s only 2-3 days out and might not have the time to. But as of how much it’s developed today in regards to what it’s estimated to be by this time. Is there any margin of error that we could be blindsided by a cat 2/3? Or is that scenario simply not possible and out the window?

To be honest, at this point, nothing would surprise me. While I am not going to bank on that happening because odds are it won't, there's a reason why historic hurricanes are historic and why anomalous hurricanes are anomalous. Who knew Tropical Storm Michael would hit Florida as a Category 5 on October 7, 2018? Or that Joaquin was going to become the strongest non-tropical origin hurricane as a 155 mph monster? Or the struggling Tropical Depression Andrew in 1992 would become what it eventually became? Sometimes the worst storms are the most unexpected.

We have yet to see what Nicole will do, let alone what the story of this storm will be after it is done, but we know two important things:
1. While it is November, the setup we are seeing shouldn't be treated like a regular November thing; rather, it should be taken more as an ASO setup given how genuinely unusual it is.

2. November climatology is typically more conducive for decent storms than, say, June or July. Hence why we've seen strong storms happen in November more frequently than the first two months of hurricane season.

[GCANE]

Definitely stacking.
A line of CCW rotating convection firing NE of the swirl.
This may go quickly now.

[StormSkeptic]

1000mb extrap, pressure falling slightly.

I think the other thing to note in the last VDM / pass of recon is that it has a solid warm core now:

P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 763m (2,503ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 773m (2,536ft)

and the pressure gradient and winds are more sharply defined around the center. If it can fire some decent convection around the center it will strengthen.

[TAD]

Serious question, since I live in Vero Beach. What are the odds this storm rapidly intensifies in a stronger than cat 1 hurricane? I know it’s only 2-3 days out and might not have the time to. But as of how much it’s developed today in regards to what it’s estimated to be by this time. Is there any margin of error that we could be blindsided by a cat 2/3? Or is that scenario simply not possible and out the window?

NWS MLB says for Vero "Plan for life-threatening wind of equivalent CAT 1 or 2 hurricane force."

https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx. ... lon=-80.42

[CrazyC83]

I talked to people in Florida unaware a hurricane was possibly coming as well.

[AutoPenalti]

Last reading had this at 26.34 N 70.10 W, which is south west of the NHC position. I saw some modeling solutions with the further north being furthest south later in the run while the quicker and further south solutions move further north... perhaps a shift north by 18z?

Not sure that makes sense, less latitude in the short term should result in a more S solution.

 https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1589636197965770752




As of 12z, seems to be verifying.