ATL: NICOLE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[jlauderdal]

Mark Sudduth's video update on nicole
https://youtu.be/6QUHRuCnbcg

Outstanding, no-nonsense summary of what is happening and what could happen. Levi gets a ton of love for his videos and he should; Mark's videos take a less technical(that doesn't mean its less factual, its right on target) approach. I encourage people to watch it, especially if you are a newbie and have confusion. You will have a very good understanding of the situation.

[cycloneye]

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas
* East Coast of Florida from the Volusia/Brevard County Line to
Hallandale Beach
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Altamaha Sound to Hallandale Beach

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Altamaha Sound southward to Volusia Brevard County Line
* Hallandale Beach to north of Ocean Reef

[SFLcane]

Hurricane watch!

[jlauderdal]

Hurricane watch!

its going no farther south than lake worth

[cheezyWXguy]

Salute!

Agree with the comment concerning "sub-tropical" storm. We had a "sub-tropical" storm in the gulf back in '93 and it was as bad as a Cat 1 hurricane - the so called "storm of the century", and good reading for we storm nerds.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1993_Storm_of_the_Century

One thing stood out to me besides the very strong winds we had in the Panhandle, and it was the storm surge in "big bend" country. And I quote:

"A substantial storm surge was also generated along the gulf coast from Apalachee Bay in the Florida Panhandle to north of Tampa Bay. Due to the angle of the coast relative to the approaching squall, Taylor County along the eastern portion of Apalachee Bay and Hernando County north of Tampa were especially hard-hit.[4]

Storm surges in those areas reached up to 12 feet (3.7 m),[25] higher than many hurricanes. With little advance warning of incoming severe conditions, some coastal residents were awakened in the early morning of March 13 by the waters of the Gulf of Mexico rushing into their homes.[27] More people died from drowning in this storm than during Hurricanes Hugo and Andrew combined.[5] Overall, the storm's surge, winds, and tornadoes damaged or destroyed 18,000 homes.[28] A total of 47 lives were lost in Florida due to this storm.[4]

Go see Ozello Florida for a true "end of the road" place ( try Google Maps road view and drive) and I stopped by a bar/grill/marina there later that year. The owner said there was no official warning as they get with hurricanes. Folks were sipping a brew, eating , having a good time when the water started up and they thankfully had a second floor to retreat.

Gums sends...

Good read, but the storm of 93 wasn’t subtropical, and it’s formation and impact couldn’t be more different. This will be a lot closer to a classic tropical impact than it would be to that anomalous system

[Nuno]

Looks like the turn more towards the west has begun

https://i.postimg.cc/xTpkwkQc/goes16-vis-swir-nwatl.gif

This wasn't supposed to occur until tonight?

[SFLcane]

Hurricane watch!

its going no farther south than lake worth

I will be in the dirty side and worst weather.

[Sciencerocks]

[ObsessedMiami]

Interesting that the 11am is out already. That turn timing NW is critical for everyone involved. I can imagine Ocean Reef to Hallendale eventually being put under a hurricane watch before too long

[CronkPSU]

Interesting that the 11am is out already. That turn timing NW is critical for everyone involved. I can imagine Ocean Reef to Hallendale eventually being put under a hurricane watch before too long

it says 10AM update, guessing with DST ending, we get updates at 4/10/16/20 now instead of the usual 5/11/17/21

[Laser30033003]

The time is AST....time so with the time change .......it's 10am EST

[cycloneye]

Interesting that the 11am is out already. That turn timing NW is critical for everyone involved. I can imagine Ocean Reef to Hallendale eventually being put under a hurricane watch before too long

Clocks changed early Sunday with now Eastern Standard Time.

[SFLcane]

Intensity wise, Nicole may take some time to consolidate given its
large radius of maximum winds and currently meager central
convection due to nearby dry air related to the nearby upper-level
low. This feature should gradually decay and warm 27-28 C
sea-surface temperatures should enable more organized convection to
develop while the system remains in a low vertical wind shear
environment.

[AutoPenalti]

Hurricane watches extend south until Lake Worth. I would think it would extend further south later in the forecast depending on model runs.

[ObsessedMiami]

Interesting that the 11am is out already. That turn timing NW is critical for everyone involved. I can imagine Ocean Reef to Hallendale eventually being put under a hurricane watch before too long

Clocks changed early Sunday with now Eastern Standard Time.

That shows you how much experience I have with advisories after the time change!!!! I can't ever remember looking at an advisory this late in the year.

[SFLcane]

Hurricane watches extend south until Lake Worth. I would think it would extend further south later in the forecast depending on model runs.

Um no lol.. it extends a bit south to Hollywood .

[ObsessedMiami]

Hurricane watches extend south until Lake Worth. I would think it would extend further south later in the forecast depending on model runs.

I am seeing it extended to Hallendale now

[GCANE]

Pressure dropping on closest buoy

[AutoPenalti]

Hurricane watches extend south until Lake Worth. I would think it would extend further south later in the forecast depending on model runs.

I am seeing it extended to Hallendale now

Yep, just got to look at it.

[SFLcane]