2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
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- weeniepatrol
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
With Martin having an eye and forecast to become a hurricane today, these two days of November will have had as many hurricanes develop as during the entire 2013 season
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- Category5Kaiju
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
weeniepatrol wrote:With Martin having an eye and forecast to become a hurricane today, these two days of November will have had as many hurricanes develop as during the entire 2013 season
2 simultaneous hurricanes in November is something not even the ferocious 2020 season featured.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
weeniepatrol wrote:With Martin having an eye and forecast to become a hurricane today, these two days of November will have had as many hurricanes develop as during the entire 2013 season
2022 might be the first season to have more hurricanes in November than in August and October combined.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
Has there ever been 2 hurricane designations in one day in November before?
I’m guessing there has been but just want to make sure.
I’m guessing there has been but just want to make sure.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
WiscoWx02 wrote:Has there ever been 2 hurricane designations in one day in November before?
I’m guessing there has been but just want to make sure.
No, there actually have not. So, 11/2/2022 is the first day on record with two H designations on the same day in November.
There have been only two other years on record with two simultaneous hurricanes in November: 1932 and 2001. But 2001's/1932's November hurricanes were designated three/four days apart.
The latest date for two simultaneous hurricanes on record is November 10th, set in 1932. Next latest is November 5th, set in 2001.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- galaxy401
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
So what is the record for most storms forming in November? Only at 1 at the moment but we will likely get two more in the next couple days. In addition to potential future Caribbean development next week, that might be 4 storms then!
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Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.
Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
kevin wrote:weeniepatrol wrote:With Martin having an eye and forecast to become a hurricane today, these two days of November will have had as many hurricanes develop as during the entire 2013 season
2022 might be the first season to have more hurricanes in November than in August and October combined.
1994
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
galaxy401 wrote:So what is the record for most storms forming in November? Only at 1 at the moment but we will likely get two more in the next couple days. In addition to potential future Caribbean development next week, that might be 4 storms then!
The current record is 3, held by multiple years (including 2020). It might be a bit premature since we're only at 1 now, but I agree that at the very least a tie of 3 named storms seems reasonable looking at the invests.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
kevin wrote:galaxy401 wrote:So what is the record for most storms forming in November? Only at 1 at the moment but we will likely get two more in the next couple days. In addition to potential future Caribbean development next week, that might be 4 storms then!
The current record is 3, held by multiple years (including 2020). It might be a bit premature since we're only at 1 now, but I agree that at the very least a tie of 3 named storms seems reasonable looking at the invests.
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Georges '98, Irene '99, Frances '04, Jeanne '04, Katrina '05, Wilma '05, Gustav '08, Isaac '12, Matthew '16, Florence '18, Michael '18, Ian '22
Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
kevin wrote:galaxy401 wrote:So what is the record for most storms forming in November? Only at 1 at the moment but we will likely get two more in the next couple days. In addition to potential future Caribbean development next week, that might be 4 storms then!
The current record is 3, held by multiple years (including 2020). It might be a bit premature since we're only at 1 now, but I agree that at the very least a tie of 3 named storms seems reasonable looking at the invests.
Seriously looking like the November record could be threatened big time this year, wow. Assuming the 2 tomatoes get the names Nicole and Owen in the next few days, thay would put us at 3 already! (and had Lisa formed just a day later, 4). Chances are that we could get even more named storms deeper into November... and in my honest opinion in a year like this, Late November could also have activity... so perhaps 4+ is not out of the question, now that would be something!
It is amazing how busy this month is behaving, almost like it were October instead.
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Georges '98, Irene '99, Frances '04, Jeanne '04, Katrina '05, Wilma '05, Gustav '08, Isaac '12, Matthew '16, Florence '18, Michael '18, Ian '22
- InfernoFlameCat
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
Never rule out a conus impact until the season ends. Ian may not be the last Conus hurricane this year, maybe not even the last major.
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
I think we got lucky the switch flipped so late this season. Had it flipped in August like in 2021 (which had 6/3/2 in August) we could've been looking at a storm count of 20NS/10H/4MH by now.
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
2022 season so far has 14/8/2. The only category that is above average is hurricanes and ACE is still below 100 which is below average.
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1590773362649092096
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1590773362649092096
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- Hurricane2022
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
Is it possible that there is another TS/Hurricane somewhere in the Atlantic? or will Nicole be the last breath of the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season?
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
Hurricane2022 wrote:Is it possible that there is another TS/Hurricane somewhere in the Atlantic? or will Nicole be the last breath of the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season?
Nobody knows, of course, though the odds this late with nothing looking threatening on the models currently are not high. But what we already do know is that 2022 is the 10th La Niña season in a row with at least one tropical cyclone having significant very late in the season (late October-November) western basin land impacts (going back to 2005). This year, we've already had two (Lisa and Nicole). The only other one since 2005 having two or more was 2020, which had three (Zeta, Eta, and Iota).
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- Category5Kaiju
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
Even during the season cancel screaming back in August and early September, I had a suspicion that the anomalous warm ocean waters would eventually yield at least one nasty, powerful hurricane later in the season. All of that latent fuel + the Nina imho meant that something had to happen.
Fiona and Ian unfortunately proved just that.
There's no way of knowing what this season will do later this month or how it will end, but even if its ACE ends up being below average, the damage has already been done, and this season will be remembered in particular as the season that brought these two terrifying storms:
Fiona and Ian unfortunately proved just that.
There's no way of knowing what this season will do later this month or how it will end, but even if its ACE ends up being below average, the damage has already been done, and this season will be remembered in particular as the season that brought these two terrifying storms:
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Unless explicitly stated, all information covered in my posts is based on my opinions and observations. Please refer to a professional meteorologist or an accredited weather research agency otherwise, especially if serious decisions must be made in the event of a potentially life-threatening tropical storm or hurricane.
Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
Category5Kaiju wrote: this season will be remembered in particular as the season that brought these two terrifying storms:
https://media.npr.org/assets/img/2022/09/23/ap22266057546200-2479f8182f5d1a67c2df0c2910d7a44416a3f145.jpg
https://npr.brightspotcdn.com/dims4/default/207e3a7/2147483647/strip/true/crop/783x440+0+0/resize/880x495!/quality/90/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fnpr-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F50%2Fde%2Fc24fa5d84b9fb5a9426787bbd3ee%2Fian-satellite-wide.jpg
I agree with you 100% on Fiona and Ian although I'd also include Nicole as very much being a part of vivid memories of 2022 due to it being the first November hurricane to hit the CONUS since 1985 and the first to hit the east coast of FL since 1935 in addition to its widespread effects.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
cycloneye wrote:2022 season so far has 14/8/2. The only category that is above average is hurricanes and ACE is still below 100 which is below average.
https://i.imgur.com/xWlwn5H.jpg
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1590773362649092096
ACE is near-normal based on NOAA's definition, which is the official metric
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
Regarding the performance of seasonal hurricane outlooks and 2022's "low bust" vs NOAA's seasonal outlook, I found this blog interesting:
https://www.worldclimateservice.com/202 ... ook-skill/
https://www.worldclimateservice.com/202 ... ook-skill/
cycloneye wrote:2022 season so far has 14/8/2. The only category that is above average is hurricanes and ACE is still below 100 which is below average.
https://i.imgur.com/xWlwn5H.jpg
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1590773362649092096
8 likes