Texas Fall 2022

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bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#941 Postby bubba hotep » Sat Nov 05, 2022 12:36 pm

Ntxw wrote:Daily SOI is back to back negative first in a while (late August). November for it has trended down, falling. Good sign regime change 2nd half of the month. Colder and stormy, 500mb becomes favorable.


Ensembles show a flip to below normal temps after this warmup. Then it looks like there could be another big storm the week before Thanksgiving. This is what some of the Euro EPS members are seeing as a big winter storm.

12z GFS - if we keep getting these bowling bowls rolling in, it's just a matter of time until one has some colder air to work with.

Image

One thing to watch in the shorter range, does this system trend south any?

Image
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#942 Postby bubba hotep » Sat Nov 05, 2022 12:37 pm

rwfromkansas wrote:Snowing in Kansas City today. Wow.


There was a good bit of snow in the TX Panhandle yesterday as well.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#943 Postby Brent » Sat Nov 05, 2022 2:35 pm

This front at the end of the week looks crazy here(although it'd be better if it had real precip)... Doesn't even get back even near normal after that the entire GFS run or the TWC app

It actually snowed in Wichita apparently this morning... That isn't that far north of here :spam:
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#944 Postby Ntxw » Sat Nov 05, 2022 3:46 pm

Looks like all the Ensembles and OPs now support the big -EPO episode (mid month cold.) Taste of winter early. Analogs set also gives some confidence the overall pattern is one that will favor some cold air dislodging.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#945 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Nov 05, 2022 4:01 pm

Found this from Hughes Springs, TX

[youtube]https://youtu.be/0kyVKGHmuCA[/youtube]
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#946 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Nov 05, 2022 4:02 pm

Brent wrote:This front at the end of the week looks crazy here(although it'd be better if it had real precip)... Doesn't even get back even near normal after that the entire GFS run or the TWC app

It actually snowed in Wichita apparently this morning... That isn't that far north of here :spam:

And KC (Kansas City), MO!

I saw that on the TWC, highs in the 40s?
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#947 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Nov 05, 2022 4:14 pm

How can you be THIS close to a Rain-Wrapped Tornado and not be struck by it?

[youtube]https://youtu.be/Uo1llDbfamQ[/youtube]
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#948 Postby Ntxw » Sat Nov 05, 2022 5:19 pm

From FW Twitter the Athens tornado was EF2. Lamar county (near Paris) was high end EF3. All preliminary.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#949 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Nov 05, 2022 5:45 pm

Ntxw wrote:From FW Twitter the Athens tornado was EF2. Lamar county (near Paris) was high end EF3. All preliminary.


The one in Lamar County could be upgraded to an EF-4, but only time will tell if that is the case.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#950 Postby Ntxw » Sat Nov 05, 2022 5:57 pm

Image
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#951 Postby gpsnowman » Sat Nov 05, 2022 6:10 pm


That's a great look any time. Now let's see it in January.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#952 Postby bubba hotep » Sat Nov 05, 2022 7:51 pm

Image
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#953 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Nov 05, 2022 8:41 pm



OOF! I know that is unlikely, but holy crap! Imagine getting a foot of snow before December even started!
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#954 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Nov 05, 2022 8:48 pm

We may get something big in Mid to Late November, says the CEO of Snow.

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1588891498606886913


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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#955 Postby Brent » Sat Nov 05, 2022 9:29 pm



Gotta love the 18z GFS :spam:

Though I do kind of like the pattern the next couple weeks for a chance at something. Definitely gonna be plenty of cold
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#956 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Nov 06, 2022 6:44 am

Brent wrote:


Gotta love the 18z GFS :spam:

Though I do kind of like the pattern the next couple weeks for a chance at something. Definitely gonna be plenty of cold

The 0z GFS drops it, but the 6z GFS has brought it back up again. The 6z snow run is CLOSER with thr snow expected between the 14th and the 16th.
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#957 Postby Itryatgolf » Sun Nov 06, 2022 7:56 am

Iceresistance wrote:
Brent wrote:


Gotta love the 18z GFS :spam:

Though I do kind of like the pattern the next couple weeks for a chance at something. Definitely gonna be plenty of cold

The 0z GFS drops it, but the 6z GFS has brought it back up again. The 6z snow run is CLOSER with thr snow expected between the 14th and the 16th.

The good news about time changing is we get the models an hour earlier. Until the king is on board, it's difficult to get excited yet
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#958 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Nov 06, 2022 8:20 am

Itryatgolf wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
Brent wrote:
Gotta love the 18z GFS :spam:

Though I do kind of like the pattern the next couple weeks for a chance at something. Definitely gonna be plenty of cold

The 0z GFS drops it, but the 6z GFS has brought it back up again. The 6z snow run is CLOSER with thr snow expected between the 14th and the 16th.

The good news about time changing is we get the models an hour earlier. Until the king is on board, it's difficult to get excited yet

Just spotted the 0z Euro, it has snow similar to the 6z GFS, except it's currently restricted to the Ozark Mountains in NE Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Missouri.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#959 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Nov 06, 2022 8:41 am

I think we're starting to have a -SOI streak right now, we're at 3 days in a row with negative SOI. :lol:
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#960 Postby Cpv17 » Sun Nov 06, 2022 2:17 pm

My goodness the EPO is going bonkers on the 12z Euro :double:
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