Texas Fall 2022

[Iceresistance]

Day 2 Updated, Enhanced risk is now much larger.

[HockeyTx82]

Day 2 Updated, Enhanced risk is now much larger.

And more east now, west side stays the same.

[Iceresistance]

Day 2 Updated, Enhanced risk is now much larger.

And more east now, west side stays the same.

The SPC may have pushed the western edge of the Enhanced risk further east if it was not for the Mesoscale models trending west again or not trending east anymore. JMO

[cheezyWXguy]

Day 2 Updated, Enhanced risk is now much larger.

And more east now, west side stays the same.

The SPC may have pushed the western edge of the Enhanced risk further east if it was not for the Mesoscale models trending west again or not trending east anymore. JMO

The Euro trended slightly west too, fires up storms even west of Tarrant and Denton counties by 18z

[cstrunk]

SPC's 10% hatched area looks pretty good. If the prefrontal storms/supercells don't get too crowded, look out.

NE TX east of Hwy 75 and along and north of I-20 (and even southward some) looks like the hot spot.

[EnnisTx]

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid ... 868&type=3

For some reason the link isn't working, but the enhanced area takes in all of Tarrant County and the far Eastern portion of Wise and Parker county from just West of Azle down through Aledo now.

[bubba hotep]

10% Hatch stretches pretty far south.

[bubba hotep]

See some similarities to this setup... https://www.weather.gov/fwd/dec26tornadoes

[cheezyWXguy]

See some similarities to this setup... https://www.weather.gov/fwd/dec26tornadoes

I was thinking about that last night. The bowling ball low and northward-racing supercells definitely feels similar.

[bubba hotep]

So do we get a MOD or HIGH for Collin County down towards Hillsboro and out towards a Canton to Paris line?

[HockeyTx82]

So do we get a MOD or HIGH for Collin County down towards Hillsboro and out towards a Canton to Paris line?

So your thoughts are mainly east of I35?

[cstrunk]

So do we get a MOD or HIGH for Collin County down towards Hillsboro and out towards a Canton to Paris line?

I think we'll get a moderate in that area east/northeast to Longview/Texarkana/SE OK. Don't think we'll see a high unless everything really comes together by mid day.

[bubba hotep]

So do we get a MOD or HIGH for Collin County down towards Hillsboro and out towards a Canton to Paris line?

So your thoughts are mainly east of I35?

I think we will see storms fire west of DFW but they won't reach mature supercell status until they are east of I35. Then it will be a question of how fast do things line out.

[somethingfunny]

I think if a storm fires up west or south of your location tomorrow, watch it like a hawk regardless of where I-35 is in relation to you.

[cstrunk]

SPC sticks with enhanced for the first D1 outlook.

[bubba hotep]

Latest from FWD and Dr. Timmer says he will be setting up just east of Dallas.

[Ntxw]

72F low this morning would have been a record daily highest minimum, however this evening will fall well below to be the daily low after front passage.

In other news SOi finally broke the long stretch positive. Should this continue a bit longer the mid November shake up will have another piece to help.

[bubba hotep]

72F low this morning

and muggy and the LLJ is just roaring out there. Feels like a North Texas svr wx day.

[Iceresistance]

I'm already seeing warm sector storms trying to blow up in Oklahoma, one did near Watonga.

[Iceresistance]

I don't like this observed sounding at all. For reference, the DFW sounding has less instability than the OUN sounding!


https://s1.gifyu.com/images/OUN-6-AM-sounding.gif