ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Kingarabian]

I think we see El Nino conditions return next summer or fall. I would be surprised if it holds off longer than that. Most long range models are showing that too.

I thought so too, but I think it's 50/50 now. -ENSO unfortunately is still an option.

[Iceresistance]

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1590011009267388418

[cycloneye]

ECMWF=Neutral to weak El Niño by mid 2023.

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1589052911560318976

[Kingarabian]

SOI is finally below +10. Still need it near 0 for 30-45 days before we can declare a neutral atmosphere.

[Category5Kaiju]

Genuinely curious, but is there a way of knowing in advance if a particular upcoming season will be a warm neutral versus a true El Nino?

[Kingarabian]

Genuinely curious, but is there a way of knowing in advance if a particular upcoming season will be a warm neutral versus a true El Nino?

Only between March->May. Right now, no.

[cycloneye]

The CPC 11/14/22 update is at -1.0C for Niño 3.4.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

[Iceresistance]

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1591959345688088577

[Category5Kaiju]

Please correct me if I am wrong, but if there is a major typhoon outbreak within the next upcoming months, then shouldn't that be a warning sign that El Nino is about to develop the following year? At least that's what Wikipedia says about the 2013 season's late-season outbreak....

[Kingarabian]

Please correct me if I am wrong, but if there is a major typhoon outbreak within the next upcoming months, then shouldn't that be a warning sign that El Nino is about to develop the following year? At least that's what Wikipedia says about the 2013 season's late-season outbreak....

It means rising motion (usually MJO) is (at least temporarily) focused over the the WPAC. That helps enhance/trigger TCG. At the same time a WWB in the Pacific near the dateline also becomes possible from that same trigger. That's the correlation.

Usually WPAC STYs near the equator during February/March that have the most +ENSO implications .

[Kingarabian]

To clarify further, the closer the WWB is to the dateline, the better chances for +ENSO -- regardless if a STY is spawned or not. But it usually goes: MJO/strong-CCKW->WPAC WWB->Equatorial STY. But if that WWB and STY is too far west in the WPAC, it's good as useless.

[dexterlabio]

Please correct me if I am wrong, but if there is a major typhoon outbreak within the next upcoming months, then shouldn't that be a warning sign that El Nino is about to develop the following year? At least that's what Wikipedia says about the 2013 season's late-season outbreak....

It means rising motion (usually MJO) is (at least temporarily) focused over the the WPAC. That helps enhance/trigger TCG. At the same time a WWB in the Pacific near the dateline also becomes possible from that same trigger. That's the correlation.

Usually WPAC STYs near the equator during February/March that have the most +ENSO implications .

WWB in December last year (which spawned STY Rai) had me convinced that 2022 would a +ENSO year, but a 3peat La Nina happened I guess we'll need WWB to consistently plague the equatorial Pacific to get a surefire El Nino.

[Kingarabian]

Both the GFS and the Euro showing hints of a WWB in the WPAC in about 2 weeks. Of course the last time they showed this in early October, nothing happened.

[dexterlabio]

Both the GFS and the Euro showing hints of a WWB in the WPAC in about 2 weeks. Of course the last time they showed this in early October, nothing happened.

I thought there was an eastward-propagating MJO in the Pacific in the 3rd week or 4th last October?

[Kingarabian]

Both the GFS and the Euro showing hints of a WWB in the WPAC in about 2 weeks. Of course the last time they showed this in early October, nothing happened.

I thought there was an eastward-propagating MJO in the Pacific in the 3rd week or 4th last October?

Yeah there was. But not every WPAC MJO passage will trigger a legit WWB.

[cycloneye]

Niño 3.4 is up to -0.9C on this weeks CPC update.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

[Kingarabian]

Significant differences between PENTAD and the TAO Buoys. The buoys show a downwelling KW moving east with decreasing cool anomalies. PENTAD shows the opposite.

[Category5Kaiju]

This is obviously ways away and things can certainly change, but the CFV2 seems to have some sort of equatorial Pacific warmup that then just stagnates. Correct me if I am wrong but at least based on this alone, doesn't that entail neutral conditions (that fall short of El Nino)?

[Chris90]

https://i.imgur.com/bGqtC0V.png

This is obviously ways away and things can certainly change, but the CFV2 seems to have some sort of equatorial Pacific warmup that then just stagnates. Correct me if I am wrong but at least based on this alone, doesn't that entail neutral conditions (that fall short of El Nino)?

Looks to me like a large subsurface warm pool making its way eastward and surfacing in Niño 1+2 after butting up against Central and South America, which is how Niño events start, at least in the oceanic portion of ENSO. Getting to Niño levels though will depend on how warm and expansive the warm pool is and if can make it across. During the winter and spring it'll be more important to watch for westerly wind bursts, WWB activity will determine whether or not the warm pool makes it. You can also keep track of the SOI, but you'll want to watch the 30 and 90 day averages, watching the daily value is noisy and not helpful.

[Kingarabian]

https://i.imgur.com/bGqtC0V.png

This is obviously ways away and things can certainly change, but the CFV2 seems to have some sort of equatorial Pacific warmup that then just stagnates. Correct me if I am wrong but at least based on this alone, doesn't that entail neutral conditions (that fall short of El Nino)?

Well if there's going to be an El Nino, that's how the subsurface should look like. We're not used to seeing those types of depictions because of the amount El Nino headfakes in the past 3 years. Downwelling KW moving east, only to be stunted.