ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)
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- Kingarabian
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- weeniepatrol
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- weeniepatrol
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Re: ENSO Updates
weeniepatrol wrote:Daily SOI was +37. 30-day average has risen to just below +20.
Thermocline is about as classically Nina as it gets. Yes, that's 18-20C water emerging in Nino 3 now
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- Kingarabian
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Re: ENSO Updates
Some signs on the Euro that there will be a solid slowdown in the trades near the dateline towards the end of the month.
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RIP Kobe Bryant
- Iceresistance
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Re: ENSO Updates
Nina still going strong, but what is with the warm anomalies in the Northern Pacific?
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/I-dont-like-this.png
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/I-dont-like-this.png
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- Kingarabian
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Re: ENSO Updates
Iceresistance wrote:Nina still going strong, but what is with the warm anomalies in the Northern Pacific?
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/I-dont-like-this.png
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/I-dont-like-this.png
There's still warm anomalies east of Japan but the waters north of Hawaii are cooling. Good step towards a classic +PDO if the Japan waters can cool. A positive PDO would increase El Nino chances. Still a long way from El Nino though.
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RIP Kobe Bryant
- Kingarabian
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Re: ENSO Updates
Latest 90 day CFS is now showing a strong DL WWB from mid November to January.
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RIP Kobe Bryant
- weeniepatrol
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Re: ENSO Updates
Iceresistance wrote:Nina still going strong, but what is with the warm anomalies in the Northern Pacific?
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/I-dont-like-this.png
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/I-dont-like-this.png
https://twitter.com/worldclimatesvc/status/1580582417773244416
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Re: ENSO Updates
Kingarabian wrote:Latest 90 day CFS is now showing a strong DL WWB from mid November to January.
Can you show me proof please?
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- cycloneye
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Re: ENSO Updates: Triple-dip La Niña continues for Winter 2022-23 / Neutral after May 2023
CPC Enso Blog
Interesting things from CPC about when this loooong lasting La Niña might or will end:
Interesting things from CPC about when this loooong lasting La Niña might or will end:
For what seems like the 247th month in a row, La Niña is still in charge in the tropical Pacific. It’s really only been about a year with continuous La Niña, as it took a break summer 2021 and re-developed October 2021, but it seems like longer! There’s a 75% chance La Niña will be present this winter (December–February); forecasters favor a transition to neutral during February–April 2023.
La Niña conditions took a vacation last summer, but the Niño-3.4 index has been negative since mid-2020. The Niño-3.4 index, our primary measurement for ENSO, measures the difference between current and long-term average sea surface temperature in a specific region in the tropical Pacific, where long-term is currently 1991–2020. According to ERSSTv5, our favorite sea surface temperature dataset, the Niño-3.4 index ticked slightly more negative to -1.1°C in September 2022. This is approximately tied with 1999 for the 6th most negative Niño-3.4 index on record for the month of September.
Forecasters are very confident that La Niña will continue through the end of the year: the probability of La Niña through October–December is 95%. I got into detail about the sources behind the high level of confidence last month, and they remain the same this month. First, there’s that Niño-3.4 index, substantially exceeding the La Niña threshold of cooler than -0.5°C.
Also, the La Niña atmospheric response is clearly locked in, shown by stronger-than-average near-surface winds along the equatorial Pacific Ocean (the trade winds), less rain than average over the central tropical Pacific, and more rain over Indonesia. All these factors illustrate an enhanced Walker circulation. One of the ways that we measure the Walker circulation is the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), which relates the surface air pressure over Darwin, Australia to the pressure over Tahiti.
We spend so much time and energy studying La Niña and El Niño because they affect global atmospheric circulation, changing climate patterns in somewhat predictable ways. Check the second half of last month’s post for a collection of La Niña’s potential effect on North American and global weather and climate.
There are many different things that go into a seasonal forecast, but the two biggies are ENSO and recent trends, meaning the tendency of temperature and rain/snow over the recent 10 or 15 years. Tom described how the recent trends work, so take a look at that post for details.
La Niña conditions took a vacation last summer, but the Niño-3.4 index has been negative since mid-2020. The Niño-3.4 index, our primary measurement for ENSO, measures the difference between current and long-term average sea surface temperature in a specific region in the tropical Pacific, where long-term is currently 1991–2020. According to ERSSTv5, our favorite sea surface temperature dataset, the Niño-3.4 index ticked slightly more negative to -1.1°C in September 2022. This is approximately tied with 1999 for the 6th most negative Niño-3.4 index on record for the month of September.
Forecasters are very confident that La Niña will continue through the end of the year: the probability of La Niña through October–December is 95%. I got into detail about the sources behind the high level of confidence last month, and they remain the same this month. First, there’s that Niño-3.4 index, substantially exceeding the La Niña threshold of cooler than -0.5°C.
Also, the La Niña atmospheric response is clearly locked in, shown by stronger-than-average near-surface winds along the equatorial Pacific Ocean (the trade winds), less rain than average over the central tropical Pacific, and more rain over Indonesia. All these factors illustrate an enhanced Walker circulation. One of the ways that we measure the Walker circulation is the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), which relates the surface air pressure over Darwin, Australia to the pressure over Tahiti.
We spend so much time and energy studying La Niña and El Niño because they affect global atmospheric circulation, changing climate patterns in somewhat predictable ways. Check the second half of last month’s post for a collection of La Niña’s potential effect on North American and global weather and climate.
There are many different things that go into a seasonal forecast, but the two biggies are ENSO and recent trends, meaning the tendency of temperature and rain/snow over the recent 10 or 15 years. Tom described how the recent trends work, so take a look at that post for details.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ENSO Updates: Weekly update at 0.8C / Triple-dip La Niña for Winter 2022-23 / Neutral after March 2023
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- Yellow Evan
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- cycloneye
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Re: ENSO Updates: CPC weekly update at -0.8C / Same as last week
No change from last weeks update from CPC as Niño 3.4 remains at -0.8C.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf
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- Iceresistance
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Re: ENSO Updates
Jeez, this La Nina is getting stronger again!?
https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1585272536559865856
https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1585272536559865856
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- Iceresistance
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Re: ENSO Updates
Nino 3.4 is below -1°C, coldest since September.
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/crw_ssta_graph_nino34.png
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/crw_ssta_graph_nino34.png
4 likes
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- Yellow Evan
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Re: ENSO Updates
-1C isn’t terribly strong in itself. This Niña is way more impressive for its prolonged atmospheric effects while the 3.4 SSTs have been in the -.8 to-1.1 range most of the last 13 months.
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- Kingarabian
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Re: ENSO Updates
Yeah if anything things are trending are towards Neutral in regards to the atmosphere. Only issue is .. yet to see any El Nino signals in the long range models.
The CFS has backed off a significant/long late year WWB.
The CFS has backed off a significant/long late year WWB.
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RIP Kobe Bryant
- Category5Kaiju
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Re: ENSO Updates
Kingarabian wrote:Yeah if anything things are trending are towards Neutral in regards to the atmosphere. Only issue is .. yet to see any El Nino signals in the long range models.
The CFS has backed off a significant/long late year WWB.
Yeah, to be honest, while I myself (as well as many others here) are on the belief that 2023 may be an El Nino year simply because it's been so long since the last true El Nino year, it also would not surprise me to see a neutral year for 2023 (leaning towards warm neutral, although I could very well muck up this forecast, and we enter a cool neutral period lol). What would be genuinely shocking imho is if we get a fourth year La Nina, although I still think that if it's not El Nino, it's probably a good bet to bank on neutral conditions.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ENSO Updates: CPC Weekly update of 10/31/22= Niño 3.4 down to -1.0C
Niño 3.4 is more cold on this CPC weekly update.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf
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- South Texas Storms
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Re: ENSO Updates
I think we see El Nino conditions return next summer or fall. I would be surprised if it holds off longer than that. Most long range models are showing that too.
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