#2 Postby aspen » Tue Oct 25, 2022 7:08 am
The GFS and CMC couldn’t be more different when it comes to genesis. On the GFS, the precursor disturbance kinda gets stuck in the E Car and pulled up north. On the CMC, the disturbance keeps moving on a track between that of Julia and Ian, and develops much further west than the GFS but still around the same time (between Saturday and Monday). The ICON is far weaker than both the GFS and CMC — no big surprise there — but has a more CMC/Julia-like track. I’m leaning towards the CMC/ICON solution because the overall setup is similar to that of Ian and Julia, both of which formed near the middle parts of the Caribbean and were steered W to WNW/NW.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.